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Forums - Sony Discussion - Discussing PS4 hardware and manufacturing price

zumnupy10 on 06 August 2012
Turkish said:

My analysis on PS4, expected components and costs:

Processor:

Sony will not abandon the cell processor, they invested billions in it and all that would go to waste if they didnt use Cell, unless AMD offers 2014 technology for a late 2013 console.

PS3 has 1PPE and 8SPE, PS4 will atleast have 4PPE and 32SPEs, Cell 2 will be baked on 22nm.

Price: around $/€100

Ram:

Fast Ram is so cheap nowadays, even the WiiU will feature 1.5GB ram. You can find 4GB Corsair Vengeance ram for 25 euros.

GPU

PS3s RSX is based of a Nvidia 7800GT, the Nvdia card was 300 pounds at launch:

http://www.trustedreviews.com/nVidia-GeForce-7800-GT-Reference-Card_PC-Component_review

At its launch PS3 got a high mid range GPU, the RSX in the PS3 only cost 129$, significantly lower then the price of a 7800GT

I predict that PS4 will have a HD7870 with 2GB VRAM. It costs less than what a 7800GT had cost at launch. In Europe you can find a HD7870 for 300 euros. Ofcourse this is not the price Sony will pay for the GPU, they will get a huge discount and by the time PS4 releases Sony could pay as little as 100 euros.

 

Bluray drive

Sony will use an upgraded bluraydrive enabling 4 layered BDs up to 100GB per disc. Future PS4 could benefit from this size and to make the movies and sound lossless.

Price: 25 euros/dollars

 

 

Bill of Material costs:

CPU: $€ 100

GPU $€100

RAM: $€25

Optical drive: $€25

Circuits, motherboard and other parts:

$€ 100

Total manufacturing price: $€350

Lets factor in 150 dollars for assembly, marketing and transport and total price is $€ 500.

 

PS4 will be released at $/€499, Sony could turn break-even right after launch.  A huge difference with PS3, only the BOM for PS3 was 840 dollars, marketing, research and transport included the price for PS3 was probably higher then 1000$: http://www.edge-online.com/news/isuppli-60gb-ps3-costs-840-produce

 

I don't think Sony should release PS4 at a lower price, it will result in them losing money and people now are willing to pay more then 500 dollars for tablets and smartphones. In 2006 there were no smartphones or tablets for 600 bucks and PS3 at 599$ was odd and expensive at the time.

No way Sony is ever making a $500 console again.

PS4 will cost no more than $350 at launch, even if the system has to be sold at loss.

PS4/XBOX720 will offer a big improvement in Graphics and gameplay, But nothing compared to the jump from PS2/XBOX  to PS3/X360.



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the2real4mafol on 06 August 2012

I'm not to technical on this sort of stuff but...
I'll give it a try

I personally reckon the ps4 will be made from standard pc components to lower costs (no cell or anything like that)

Cpu- AMD FX 4100 (currently £90)
Ram- 4gb (currently £15)
GPU- AMD radeon 7770 1GB (around £90)
Blu- Ray (around £20)
Hard drive- at least 500gb (around £40)
Anything Else (around £65) for stuff like the case, motherboard, PSU and Fans

TOTAL MANUFACTURING COST -£320

If the PS4 launched today it would cost £350/ $450/ 425 euros/ 45000 yen
possibly making a tiny loss due to marketing

although these parts will be noticeably cheaper in late 2013/ early 2014



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

Solid-Stark on 06 August 2012
Solid-Stark said:

Imo, graphics won't make the PS4 the "best" and as a gamer, I don't need it to be the best to make me happy.. Much like the PS2, I expect Sony not to be the best in raw power next gen, but second place after the next X-Box and ahead of the WiiU. Games, innovation, and proper marketing will help it succeed.

My picks will go by the AMD rumors.

Processor:

AMD Steamroller APU (Best in-class; Quad Core?; 3.6GHz?)

The Cell processor will stay on board for BC. (Maybe for the first 2 or 3 years)

Ram:

1.5GB DDR3 1600MHz for the APU [Due to the WiiU reportedly having 512mb dedicated to OS, I expect Sony to follow suit] 1GB will be available for developers.

GPU

AMD Radeon HD7850 derived GPU with 2GB GDDR5
Integrated GPU in APU will be 8660D(?) and to have some sort of hybrid crossfire with discrete GPU


Bluray drive

BD drive will stay but will be the latest (speed). Installations will be optional.


Storage

Sony should go flash. (16Gb?) This would bring down costs and since installations would be optional, it would be completely up to the consumer if he/she wants to purchase an HDD. Also, HDDs should be proprietary.


PS4 manufacturing to cost maybe $400. PS4 to retail at $400; break even or small loss.
It will also need to launch with Killzone "4" and Uncharted "4" as it would be a perfect way to market the PS"4".
Gran Turismo 6 would also be needed.


Bump.

I revised mine.



e=mc^2

Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

Turkish on 06 August 2012
zumnupy10 said:
Turkish said:

My analysis on PS4, expected components and costs:

Processor:

Sony will not abandon the cell processor, they invested billions in it and all that would go to waste if they didnt use Cell, unless AMD offers 2014 technology for a late 2013 console.

PS3 has 1PPE and 8SPE, PS4 will atleast have 4PPE and 32SPEs, Cell 2 will be baked on 22nm.

Price: around $/€100

Ram:

Fast Ram is so cheap nowadays, even the WiiU will feature 1.5GB ram. You can find 4GB Corsair Vengeance ram for 25 euros.

GPU

PS3s RSX is based of a Nvidia 7800GT, the Nvdia card was 300 pounds at launch:

http://www.trustedreviews.com/nVidia-GeForce-7800-GT-Reference-Card_PC-Component_review

At its launch PS3 got a high mid range GPU, the RSX in the PS3 only cost 129$, significantly lower then the price of a 7800GT

I predict that PS4 will have a HD7870 with 2GB VRAM. It costs less than what a 7800GT had cost at launch. In Europe you can find a HD7870 for 300 euros. Ofcourse this is not the price Sony will pay for the GPU, they will get a huge discount and by the time PS4 releases Sony could pay as little as 100 euros.

 

Bluray drive

Sony will use an upgraded bluraydrive enabling 4 layered BDs up to 100GB per disc. Future PS4 could benefit from this size and to make the movies and sound lossless.

Price: 25 euros/dollars

 

 

Bill of Material costs:

CPU: $€ 100

GPU $€100

RAM: $€25

Optical drive: $€25

Circuits, motherboard and other parts:

$€ 100

Total manufacturing price: $€350

Lets factor in 150 dollars for assembly, marketing and transport and total price is $€ 500.

 

PS4 will be released at $/€499, Sony could turn break-even right after launch.  A huge difference with PS3, only the BOM for PS3 was 840 dollars, marketing, research and transport included the price for PS3 was probably higher then 1000$: http://www.edge-online.com/news/isuppli-60gb-ps3-costs-840-produce

 

I don't think Sony should release PS4 at a lower price, it will result in them losing money and people now are willing to pay more then 500 dollars for tablets and smartphones. In 2006 there were no smartphones or tablets for 600 bucks and PS3 at 599$ was odd and expensive at the time.

No way Sony is ever making a $500 console again.

PS4 will cost no more than $350 at launch, even if the system has to be sold at loss.

PS4/XBOX720 will offer a big improvement in Graphics and gameplay, But nothing compared to the jump from PS2/XBOX  to PS3/X360.


i'll be revising. I pretty much rule out any Cell development.



Turkish on 06 August 2012
Solid-Stark said:
Solid-Stark said:

Imo, graphics won't make the PS4 the "best" and as a gamer, I don't need it to be the best to make me happy.. Much like the PS2, I expect Sony not to be the best in raw power next gen, but second place after the next X-Box and ahead of the WiiU. Games, innovation, and proper marketing will help it succeed.

My picks will go by the AMD rumors.

Processor:

AMD Steamroller APU (Best in-class; Quad Core?; 3.6GHz?)

The Cell processor will stay on board for BC. (Maybe for the first 2 or 3 years)

Ram:

1.5GB DDR3 1600MHz for the APU [Due to the WiiU reportedly having 512mb dedicated to OS, I expect Sony to follow suit] 1GB will be available for developers.

GPU

AMD Radeon HD7850 derived GPU with 2GB GDDR5
Integrated GPU in APU will be 8660D(?) and to have some sort of hybrid crossfire with discrete GPU


Bluray drive

BD drive will stay but will be the latest (speed). Installations will be optional.


Storage

Sony should go flash. (16Gb?) This would bring down costs and since installations would be optional, it would be completely up to the consumer if he/she wants to purchase an HDD. Also, HDDs should be proprietary.


PS4 manufacturing to cost maybe $400. PS4 to retail at $400; break even or small loss.
It will also need to launch with Killzone "4" and Uncharted "4" as it would be a perfect way to market the PS"4".
Gran Turismo 6 would also be needed.


Bump.

I revised mine.


Nice, seems you expect low ram. They should allocate atleast 1GB for the OS, it needs to stay relevant for the coming 6 7 years.



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Solid-Stark on 07 August 2012
Turkish said:
Solid-Stark said:
Solid-Stark said:

Imo, graphics won't make the PS4 the "best" and as a gamer, I don't need it to be the best to make me happy.. Much like the PS2, I expect Sony not to be the best in raw power next gen, but second place after the next X-Box and ahead of the WiiU. Games, innovation, and proper marketing will help it succeed.

My picks will go by the AMD rumors.

Processor:

AMD Steamroller APU (Best in-class; Quad Core?; 3.6GHz?)

The Cell processor will stay on board for BC. (Maybe for the first 2 or 3 years)

Ram:

1.5GB DDR3 1600MHz for the APU [Due to the WiiU reportedly having 512mb dedicated to OS, I expect Sony to follow suit] 1GB will be available for developers.

GPU

AMD Radeon HD7850 derived GPU with 2GB GDDR5
Integrated GPU in APU will be 8660D(?) and to have some sort of hybrid crossfire with discrete GPU


Bluray drive

BD drive will stay but will be the latest (speed). Installations will be optional.


Storage

Sony should go flash. (16Gb?) This would bring down costs and since installations would be optional, it would be completely up to the consumer if he/she wants to purchase an HDD. Also, HDDs should be proprietary.


PS4 manufacturing to cost maybe $400. PS4 to retail at $400; break even or small loss.
It will also need to launch with Killzone "4" and Uncharted "4" as it would be a perfect way to market the PS"4".
Gran Turismo 6 would also be needed.


Bump.

I revised mine.


Nice, seems you expect low ram. They should allocate atleast 1GB for the OS, it needs to stay relevant for the coming 6 7 years.

I'd like to think of it as relatively "enough". A gaming console, even as an entertainment hub, wouldn't need more than 4GB max IMO.

Also, after further thought, I'm going to rule out an APU as there would be no hybrid crossfire support between a future Steamroller APU and a current AMD GPU. More than likely it will be an AMD Steamroller FX CPU.

Edit: Disregard that. It seems like Steamroller FX won't be available until Q4 2013. Usually consoles have about a year of finalized main components. Unless PS4 comes in second half of 2014, the only Steamroller it can possibly have is an APU.



e=mc^2

Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

Solid-Stark on 07 August 2012

3rd Revision

Processor:

AMD Steamroller APU

The CELL processor will stay on board for BC. (Maybe for the first 2 or 3 years)

Ram:

2GB DDR3 1600MHz for the APU [1GB dedicated to OS and multimedia/multitasking applications] 1GB will be available for developers.

GPU

AMD Radeon HD7850 derived GPU with 2GB GDDR5
Integrated GPU in APU to be next gen?


Bluray drive

BD drive will stay but will be the latest (speed). Installations will be optional.


Storage

Sony should go flash. (16Gb?) This would bring down costs and since installations would be optional, it would be completely up to the consumer if he/she wants to purchase an HDD.


PS4 manufacturing to cost maybe $400. PS4 to retail at $400; break even or small loss.
It will also need to launch with Killzone "4" and Uncharted "4" as it would be a perfect way to market the PS"4".
Gran Turismo 6 would also be needed.



e=mc^2

Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

Persistantthug on 07 August 2012
kowenicki said:
torok said:
withdreday said:
TheProphet said:
How is Sony going to pay for this upgrade in technology, new plant equipment, etc., when it is bleeding red ink? There's not going to be a PS4 for quite some time. If they made game systems upgradable then we could swap the parts and pay a profitable price for the fun of tinkering with the PS3. Besides, the PS3 graphics are so good I don't think they are fully utilized now. If they are, I can't image upgrading for just higher resolution. And what new features would there be? I just don't see any compelling reason to have a PS4.


Sony has more than 15 billion USD in assets. These resent losses are nothing. They can afford a PS4. If it scuffles like the PS3 did out the gate however, that could change.


Actually, people forget that Sony has a large cash reserve (around US$ 170 Billions). They were immensely profitable in 90's-early 2000's. They have a lot of money to burn and will do what they think that will lead to a return to profitability. If they believe that it will be a cheaper console, then it'll be this way. If thet think that it'll be a US$ 600 beast, then it'll be this way.

Anyway, I believe that they will prefer a higher mid-end aproach. Powerfull but not too expensive.

Utter garbage. Where do some of you pull this rubbish from? $170bn in cash, wtf?

Sony has about $7bn in cash, the rest is in long term investments, building, inventory and machinery. 

TOTAL assets are $161bn

TOTAL liabilities are $137bn

Not much room there any more.

So you see they dont have a lot of money to burn, infact if they repeat the last 3 years in the next 3 years (I dont think they will by the way) then they wouldnt exist any more. 

Are people this oblivious to the real situation?  A companies value doesnt just collapse for no reason. You seem to think that Sony can do what the fuck they want with zero consequenceand that they are some kind of super company.  They arent... not anywhere near.


Well,

Sony is most definitey a SUPER CONGLOMERATE Corp.

They are the conglomerates of conglomerates, with their hands in practically everything entertainment wise.  To say that Sony is Hollywood, that wouldn't be far from the truth.

 

I'm not sure how much money they have though.



Persistantthug on 07 August 2012
kowenicki said:
Persistantthug said:
kowenicki said:
torok said:
withdreday said:
TheProphet said:
How is Sony going to pay for this upgrade in technology, new plant equipment, etc., when it is bleeding red ink? There's not going to be a PS4 for quite some time. If they made game systems upgradable then we could swap the parts and pay a profitable price for the fun of tinkering with the PS3. Besides, the PS3 graphics are so good I don't think they are fully utilized now. If they are, I can't image upgrading for just higher resolution. And what new features would there be? I just don't see any compelling reason to have a PS4.


Sony has more than 15 billion USD in assets. These resent losses are nothing. They can afford a PS4. If it scuffles like the PS3 did out the gate however, that could change.


Actually, people forget that Sony has a large cash reserve (around US$ 170 Billions). They were immensely profitable in 90's-early 2000's. They have a lot of money to burn and will do what they think that will lead to a return to profitability. If they believe that it will be a cheaper console, then it'll be this way. If thet think that it'll be a US$ 600 beast, then it'll be this way.

Anyway, I believe that they will prefer a higher mid-end aproach. Powerfull but not too expensive.

Utter garbage. Where do some of you pull this rubbish from? $170bn in cash, wtf?

Sony has about $7bn in cash, the rest is in long term investments, building, inventory and machinery. 

TOTAL assets are $161bn

TOTAL liabilities are $137bn

Not much room there any more.

So you see they dont have a lot of money to burn, infact if they repeat the last 3 years in the next 3 years (I dont think they will by the way) then they wouldnt exist any more. 

Are people this oblivious to the real situation?  A companies value doesnt just collapse for no reason. You seem to think that Sony can do what the fuck they want with zero consequenceand that they are some kind of super company.  They arent... not anywhere near.


Well,

Sony is most definitey a SUPER CONGLOMERATE Corp.

They are the conglomerates of conglomerates, with their hands in practically everything entertainment wise.  To say that Sony is Hollywood, that wouldn't be far from the truth.

 

I'm not sure how much money they have though.


No it isn't.  It's about 13% of Hollywood, last time I checked.  

That's alot.

Not only that, but music, TV.

And you can't forget about their power and influence with media formats.  They co developed CD, DVD, and now BLURAY.

They even convinced in industry that for high end movies, 3D is the way to go.

Sony's a big deal, kowenicki.......very much so.



goddog on 07 August 2012
Solid-Stark said:

3rd Revision

Processor:

AMD Steamroller APU

The CELL processor will stay on board for BC. (Maybe for the first 2 or 3 years)

Ram:

2GB DDR3 1600MHz for the APU [1GB dedicated to OS and multimedia/multitasking applications] 1GB will be available for developers.

GPU

AMD Radeon HD7850 derived GPU with 2GB GDDR5
Integrated GPU in APU to be next gen?


Bluray drive

BD drive will stay but will be the latest (speed). Installations will be optional.


Storage

Sony should go flash. (16Gb?) This would bring down costs and since installations would be optional, it would be completely up to the consumer if he/she wants to purchase an HDD.


PS4 manufacturing to cost maybe $400. PS4 to retail at $400; break even or small loss.
It will also need to launch with Killzone "4" and Uncharted "4" as it would be a perfect way to market the PS"4".
Gran Turismo 6 would also be needed.


without more ram that will be a horribly under powered system especially when we have devs talking about game engines that will need a 64 bit cpus due to the amount of ram the game will use. 

I expect sony and ms to ship with a min of 6 gigs of ddr3 and would not be surprised if they are trying to hold off for ddr4 which should see first volume use next year in servers so its reasonable to think it could show up in consoles as a deal to help early demand and keep costs down for manufacturers by guaranteeing some product sold

 

gpu will probably be AMD but id guess the next version say 8850 2-3 gig gddr5 or could be a custom build again a family mod of the new core AMD has … it does look like nvidia somehow lost out on all consoles this time

as for your cpu, a custom APU would make since if AMD  can get its ass in gear on the power/heat issues it has right now and i don't see the bulldozer linage cores ever providing the kind of  single core performance that you really want in gaming, unless AMD has figured out how to ramp them up to the needed 4.5+ ghz without the monsters heat 

i think another custom power family cpu  (cell is a power family cpu) would work best but maybe they don't want to pay IBM or freescale to build it. 

 

as for storage flash +hdd. I think sony may monazite the HDDs like MS did last time, its a major revenue stream they missed, and thats strange for them because they love locking down memory for storage with proprietary formats 

 

blue ray will be in the first console, then later a revision with download only and an external reader if you want it. … i see both sony and ms doing this. 

450 bucks tops coming out …. 

though i fear they may see MS subscription model and feel thats they way to sell a more costly console and guarantee revenue and we will see 199 consoles with 2-4 year contracts



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