3-3.5 make the most sense if the game is solid

Being the first in a series, I doubt it will sell more than 2mil in the US alone. Though if Sony puts some heavy marketing behind it, it may pass 2 million.

2012 is PS3s last big holiday season 

I don't know like 2.5 - 3 million. It's hard :/

Two words Naughty Dog.

Being that this game is made by Naughty Dog-the darlings of the industry-I would have to say between 3.5m-4.2m

I'd be conservative and say 2.5 to 3 million sales. More if it does well during the launch. Single player games usually sell over time as the price drops.

I don't care how many bought it in the first place...I care if I bought it or not on first day release.

Why are people even talking about Metascores like they matter at all? Only a VERY small minority of gamers buy games based on Metacritic, the site isn't popular at all. I'd bet about 99% of gamers don't even know of the site, only hardcore gaming internet dwelling nut-cases even know or care about Metacritic.

If there's a correlation between games with high scores (85+) and good sales it's not because of Metacritic, it's because; 1. Those people read some reviews from popular publications and were interested because it was well-received, 2. They played and enjoyed the demo, 3. They checked out footage and liked what they saw, 4. They saw an advertisement that appealed to them, 5. A friend recommended the game to them. Any sales caused by Metascores are insignificant.

I predict 3-3.5 million for The Last of Us, 3.5-4 million if it's bundled largely and advertised decently like Uncharted 2 and 4-4.5 million if it's bundled massively and advertised brilliantly like Uncharted 3. Of course the game could be rubbish and therefore have bad word of mouth which is the most important thing in ensuring great legs, although initial sales for the first few weeks at full price is the most important time to shift lots of copies rather than shifting lots of copies at $20-$30 a couple of months after release and 1 million copies 2 1/2 years after launch as part of a dual pack at $29.99 which doesn't amount to much profit (Uncharted 2/ dual pack).

yea.. i cant wait to play it at the end of 2023