lol they said that?

I think that if the Vita was half the price now it would still fail.

Even if the Vita would get a big price cut now, and a Call of Duty and a GTA in a few month it would not even reach 6 mio in FY13.

I don't think they're even going to sell 1 million worldwide in the next 3-4 months combined. 

I don't see any piece of software coming in the immediate future that would provide a boost and even when you do have some solid games it looks like the traditional handheld is on its death bed in the North American and Euro markets.

The 3DS has Super Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7, and Resident Evil Revelations and is still struggling in North America and Europe.

I think maybe we need to concede that a lot of people simply don't want/need a console-like experience on the go. Being able to check email/web browse/Facebook/play some Angry Birds more than occupies most people's free time when they're out of the house.

Yeah Call of Duty on Vita couldn't hurt but what does it really mean to the person who just spent $60 on the "real" console version with the higher end graphics that they play on a 50 inch screen? Are they really going to spend another $40 on a Vita version/spin-off? When they already have 5-6 $1-$5 games on their iPhone that eat up most of their time on the train? 

No, I was just joking and giving an example of how absurd is sounded to me.

Only after a redesign and a 100 dollars price cut, If they do the same for the vita then the forecast is possible

How many 3DS Nintendo forecast to ship this fiscal year, can anyone tell me?

I think it was 16 million. 

Keep in mind though as well Nintendo tends to surge massively around the holidays for handhelds (always have). 

^thanx Soundwave too

So just like this is a price-cut confirmation for Vita, I think this number is a redesign confirmation for the 3DS. (they patented a new "analog pad" did you see)

I feel like the 3DS will easily exceed 18.5 mil this year without a redesign. It's pretty much "on pace" to sell over 20 mil this year. I think Nintendo made a conservative prediction so that it'll be sure to "exceed their expectations" and then the perception will be that it's doing fantastically, as opposed to last year when they didn't meet expectations and everyone cried DOOOOOOOMED.

But a redesign is certainly still possible.

Oh yeah, and I think it would have to be a pretty sizable price cut to help the Vita get to 10 mil. What it really needs is to stop tanking in Japan, which is unlikely to happen this year given the strength of its three main competitors (3DS, DS, PSP).