I don't think the X360 is in trouble as much as it is that Sony actually has a PS3 that is selling.

Xbox 360 sales week-over-week are up nearly 50% from the same week last year. That's a huge improvement for the X360. Not only this, talk is about a price drop when GTAIV launches - which would definately help the system.

Ultimately, the X360 is doing quite a bit better than the Xbox did. No one expected the X360 to win vs. the Playstation 3, and the fact that it's taken more than a year, and desperate moves by Sony to get them to barely equalize, is a huge testament to how much better the X360 is moving vs. the Xbox.

Could Microsoft do alot more? Absolutely. MS needs a price drop, strong software agreements in Europe and Japan to spur sales, and better advertising abroad.

However, with as much as people think that MS layed all of their cards on the table in holiday 07 - I think, if anything, what they did just set them up for 08 being an even more critical - and winnable year.

If MS doesn't botch up the GTAIV launch, and promotes the title as an X360 title, with a price drop too, Sony will be backed into the same corner it did in mid-07, while the X360 will be precieved as the go-to console by core gamers in the US (ie, PS2 owners, the 40m of em), and a strong showing in Europe.

360 is actually selling better than expected. Even though I feel the failed to capitalize on the weaknesses of Sony and Nintendo this gen (no sales vs too few supply) they managed to get almost every important Sony game.

The presence of Devil May Cry, Resident Evil 5, GTA4 on Microsofts console makes it a lot more viable and can be considered a big blow for the PS3.

Microsoft will lower the price before GTA4, something Sony cannot do. I doubt Sony will be able to lower the price of the PS3 this year due to shareholders that lose a lot of money over the PS3. Sony will never make its 11 million consoles in the 2007 financial year.

Maybe the PS3 will sell a little more then 360 this year, but not nearly enough to close the gap of 8 million. Until then 360 is not in any trouble because the games will come and the console will keep selling. The longer Microsoft maintains its lead over PS3 the better for MS.

Nidan said: MikeB said: Neglecting price changes for all three platforms, IMO the 360 is in serious problems. The biggest worry may be that the XBox 360 userbase hasn't expanded much from mainly upgrading XBox fans (a platform lacking software support for years). So this additional positive effect will see its end soon enough (probably for 2009 this will be almost neglectable), I think this year will be the 360's last OK year, but the best years are already in the past. The PS3 will see an enormous boost in Japan with the high profile exclusives and also the anticipated multiplatform games will boost PS3 sales much more than for the 360. In Europe I think the 360 will be driven into the background, the PS3 will overtake the total 360 install base there, despite a 1 year and 5 months headstart for the 360. The only places I see the 360 perform well enough this year is the US, Australia and the UK, but the PS3 blockbusters will probably see the PS3 outselling the 360 there this year as well. Blu-Ray movie compatibility may also play a more profound role to the advantage of the PS3 this year, improving multiplatform games and Home will kill much of the 360 fan bragging rights. I think that no one is factoring in Microsofts total plan, which does make a huge difference to their position now and over the next 3-4 years. Firstly MS has never been interested in hardware, they are a software company and some people think that they have become very good at that (Somepeople). MS knows that the best way to drive a platform is through competition and they have stated recently that they are going to license the platform to a number of OEMs and Brand name customers. There are a number of ways that they are going about this and some of them are as follows Work with IPTV providers to provide a set top box to provide their IPTV. licence the platform to set top box manufactures licence the platform for use in PVR etc licence the platform to toshiba who were going to lauch an xbox360/HDDVD combo with DVR. licence the platform to other PC manufactures to be used as Media extenders. This is a interesting plan as we would see many variants of the same platform available through many sales channels and competition would grow and in some case reduce pricing. With this plan MS falls back into the same roll the company has taken for many years, and that is of producing software, but driving each successive generation of the xbox internally. Secondly MS never put a harddrive into the XBox360 for a good reason "MEDIA CENTER" as the prices of the xbox reduces over the years, the base Xbox will become sub $100USD. This then becomes practical to have these throughout the home (kids bedroom, living room, main bedroom etc). With the use of Media center or a windows pc MS has now taken over the digital entertainment for the living room. Licensing the platform will obviously bring competition and help MS to achieve their goal. Sure the software is still in it infancy, but ultimately when the price becomes sub $100USD, the software will be ready and able to preform all these tasks simply and easily. As the software evolves more and more people will become aware of the connectivity and be drawn to MS. The Xbox does not just represent a battle between MS and Sony, it goes alot further and represents a battle against its major rivals Google Apple and Sony Microsoft is positioning it pieces and shortly they will be put into action, if you thought the war is already been waged, then think again, gaming is just a small piece of the xbox plan for your living room. Another major point to MS success was not to put alot of emphasis onto HD-DVD vs BR, as their future lies in digital distribution (and again the Media centre approach). Doing this was only prolonging the uptake of HD-DVD or BR content and positioning MS in a position where before HD-DVD or BR became mainstream they were already offering the same content streamed to media center or the Xbox. Back to my point Ultimately, if the plan is well laid out and converged properly, then adoptance in Japan and Europe is just a matter of time as multiple systems will be levered off one another, when you buy an xbox you are buying more than just a gaming machine, you are buying a machine that will do alot more: Search Gaming Media distrubition (shoping, renting, iptv) Music Video home automation. Video calling etc.  Overall MS is waging the war for the living room, not just gaming, and ultimatly I think they will/ need to succeed.

Very good points.  I don't expect MS to win though (at least not meaningfully outside US).

Just looking at  Sony they have many advantages over MS in terms of actually owning or influencing many more of the pieces (Film and Music divisions, Electronics divisions, etc) plus much much more experience of supporting home vs business environment.

They also (at least outside of US) seem to be forming better partnerships (based on what I see in UK, for example, where they are parterning with Sky while MS have partnered with BT).

The issue I see is the big market.  The big HW players are established for home entertainment and MS is far from being one of them (Sony, Samsung, Toshiba, etc).  The big content players are established and MS is far from being one of them.  What's more likely is Warners, etc. will licence content to all potential providers - and just as DVD Player sales dwarf console sales you'll have a global niche of people sitting on 360 (or equivelant MS machine) buying or renting content but this will be tiny next to HW from Sony, Samsung, etc. providing the same content.

Apple I think will soon start to be squeezed out - the Ipod gave them great traction but they are now facing steep competion from Amazon (for example) with DRM free music from all the major studios including Sony.

A new battleground for the home is definately brewing - but I think MS are way down the line as likely winners and you are letting their monopoly in PC OS and bags of cash cloud the issue.  As a company they trail massively behind others in these areas and have very little real credibility.

I see it this way - for this to work I'd have to trust MS platform, and I don't, and I doubt the majority of home entertainment viewers would either.  They are linked to gaming and have made good ground delivering content to gamers.   But for other content?  I don't know.  I wouldn't buy a TV from them or any other electronics, and to be honest I haven't bought a 360 from them due to RROD - why would I trust them to deliver content to me?  There are a lot of other companies (Apple, Google, Sony, etc) I'd far rather trust for a media-centre or similar HW delivering content into my home.

 Really, all you need is content, HW and communications.  MS are OS and recent entry to gaming consoles - what can they really offer (apart from cash) that others don't know how to do better?

 

Wow - long post - sorry - normally try to keep them shorter than that so easier to read.

@ BengaBenga

The 360 only sold a little faster (although Halo 3 had less an effect than I expected, probably most Halo fans already upgraded due to the demise of the XBox) and the PS3 a little slower for the United States than I personally expected.

But there was also a lot more FUD and misinformation (US - Weapons of Mass destruction-style) floating around than I expected.

I think most people already foreseen this considering the titles and companies involved. Devil May Cry 3, Resident Evil 4 as well as GTA3 were all released for the PC, also RE4 was on the GameCube, GTA3 was on the XBox. IMO no major shockers there.

These are important games especially Grand Theft Auto 4, but IMO Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 is a much more powerful combination, all PS3 exclusives designed to get the most out of the platform (at least for the time being, adapting legacy game engines further or engines built from scratch for the system like the White Engine will evolve a lot further in the future).

MikeB said: @ BengaBenga The presence of Devil May Cry, Resident Evil 5, GTA4 on Microsofts console makes it a lot more viable and can be considered a big blow for the PS3. I think most people already foreseen this considering the titles and companies involved. Devil May Cry 3, Resident Evil 4 as well as GTA3 were all released for the PC, also RE4 was on the GameCube, GTA3 was on the XBox. IMO no major shockers there. These are important games especially GTA4, but IMO Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 is a much more powerful combination, all PS3 exclusives designed to get the most out of the platform.

 So what if they came out on PC, nearly every 360 game comes out on PC, it's just really easy to port.  RE4 was on gamecube because Nintendo paid Capcom, and they even broke the contract because they wanted the money so bad.  GTA came out way later on xbox, same with metal gear.  Games that come out that late don't have an impact anymore, they've pretty much already run their course.  

mrstickball said: Ultimately, the X360 is doing quite a bit better than the Xbox did. No one expected the X360 to win vs. the Playstation 3, and the fact that it's taken more than a year, and desperate moves by Sony to get them to barely equalize, is a huge testament to how much better the X360 is moving vs. the Xbox.

or a huge testament to how much worse Playstaton 3 is moving vs the Playstation 2. 

@ johnsobas

I just pointed out it was already expected to happen, PC and 360 dev tools have a lot in common, the 360 had a year (and 5 months in most of the world) headstart. It's just not shocking to me.

Monster Hunter on the Wii was more of a surprise, at least if it's exclusive and they aren't secretly working on a PS2 version as well.

The XBox 360 has not been selling up to most people's expectations but a large portion of that is Microsoft has been unwilling to price and position the XBox 360 in a way that it can sell.

Most people who play videogames see them as an inexpensive form of entertainment, or as an enjoyable diversion; they're not hard-core gamers or multimedia technophiles who care about the feature differences between the consoles. At the current price of the XBox 360 (and being that there is no budget library) the XBox 360 is simply too expensive to attract these gamers.

Microsoft should reduce the price of the XBox 360 so that the XBox 360 core is $200 or $250, the XBox 360 priemium is $300 and the XBox 360 Elite is under $400 (I would personally drop the elite); if they did this right now they would probably see a 75,000 to 150,000 console sold per month boost (long term) outside of the holiday season, and probably see a 1,000,000 unit boost within the holiday season.

Well the 360 is a viable plattform so no it wont have too much trouble .

But ,as the "console wars " go ,it just cant keep the second place for too long .The PS3 is selling strong in Eu/others and has dramatically improved its performance in Japan and NA to relatively good numbers .The NA 360 lead in weekly sales over the PS3 isnt so big (last month we have data from NPD things were like 517K PS3 against 807k 360) to counter the differences in EU and Japan in the PS3 favour .