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Forums - Sales - Yearly Hardware Sales Transitions in America

zackblue said:
@ioi

Well my predicition for 2008 is pretty simple.

The thing that was severly holding down ps3 sales was not games, but the price. Now its $200 cheaper.

Therefore I expect ps3 to manage over 5 million in North america this year, as we will not only have a much cheaper price, but we will also have some heavy AAA titles, MGS4, resistance 2, LBP, and other great exclusives.

No as for 360 it should sell about the same, but I say some type of trend developing from the hardcore, there is the possibility ps3 may steal some sales from the 360. Therefore I expect the 360 to be slightly ahead of the ps3 if not = in LTD sales for 2008.

Wii is a huge confusion, I expect the same sales or slightly lower depending on demand.

If price was what was holding down PS3, then every subsequent pricedrop starting with the first one would have seen an explosion in sales.  This is common sense, as your reasoning would show that people would be waiting on one.  I think we've looked through all sales and all weeks of a PS3 pricedrop and hereonafter has seen nothign that could be called an explosion of sales.  Meaning obviously price isn't that large of a factor as some would throw it off to be.  

 

But I do expect PS3 sales to increase, and possibly double, but only for the reason of bigger games and 360 faltering in 08.  Not to mention PS3 really can only go up haha.  360 of course will falter as Halo 3 is gone, PS3 is at a reasonable price, and it doesn't have a 1st place brandname.

Wii of course will increase cause really it might be able to do all in one yr of 07, in just the first half of 08, if shipments allow it.  As Wii's demand will at least stay on high until Summer 2008, which is the most likely time when supply will outstrip demand.  Meaning Wii could easily have about 5 million shipped to the Americas in that timeframe and all sellout.  And then the rest of the year will more than double that number as holidays see more sales than the other parts of the year.  It would be very very unlikely that with increased demand, top branndame, big games such as SSBB, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, better 3rd party games ect, and sellouts til at least Summer 2008 for Wii to not do better in 08 than in 07.  



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ioi said:

Well we will have to agree to disagree. 12-13m would be record-shattering enough, 15-17m would be insane and I don't believe Wii demand is that high - that would be almost twice the amount PS2 or GBA ever sold in their best year which I can't see I'm afraid.

Look at the Japan chart I am about to put up. Having done 600k in one WEEK in Japan in 2005 DS went on to sell 8.42m in 2006, supply constrained all year and selling as much as Nintendo could ship. From this, some may have said that 2007, with supply increasing, could have seen even more sales as we never knew what demand was in 2006 but sales went down in 2007 to 7.31m, not down by much but enough to indicate that the enormous demand that was leading to constant sellouts was now being met and it was starting to sell more regular, albeit enormous, numbers. I suspect the same will happen with Wii, supply will increase enough in 2008 to get to maybe 10-12m for the year but by that point it will stop selling out every time, there will be over 20m Wiis in homes and it will start to assume a more normal sales pattern. This is just my view of course, but demand is not infinite, there will be a point at which the system begins to stop selling out every week.


I think you will be right about the America Wii sales for 2008, of the max being 15-17m, but it might again be supply issues.  I think the Wii is tracking much closer to the DS than the PS2.  The PS2 did bring in more gamers, but mainly of the same age group.  The DS with Nintendogs brought in a lot of females, and BrainAge a lot of older adults.  And pushed 10M+ last year.

Similarly, WiiSports is being in the older adults/families.  WiiFit will probably do the same.  These are sales that otherwise would not be there for any system.  I do think that a new high impact IP for females is needed to boost their sales in that market.  

Finally, as their sales grow, they will turn into a bit like the PS2, with a ton of garbage games.  Still, some of those games still caught the eye of buyers, and sold units, I imagine.

The sales will most likely be held back some because N. is too cautious about raising production.  17M would be 2x what was given to America for 2007.  Like you, I can't imagine them having more inventory to sell.

X360 and PS3 will do better in 2008, PS3 peaks in 2009 or 2010.  But it wouldn't suprise me to see 2009 as the peak sales for this generation of consoles.  Dipping in 2010, with a new console out in 2011. 

 

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

Faxanadu said:
seems like peak is usually in year 3 or year 4. we have 2 very interesting years ahead of us....

I think end of next year it should be clear who will win/loose this time around.

by the end of this year we should know the winner and by the end of next year we should know who will be no2 3



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

the second best second year for the WII in america too, like in Japan



wow anyone notice that DS in 2007 sold as much as it did in 2004.2005 and 2006



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

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brute said:
Faxanadu said:
seems like peak is usually in year 3 or year 4. we have 2 very interesting years ahead of us....

I think end of next year it should be clear who will win/loose this time around.

by the end of this year we should know the winner and by the end of next year we should know who will be no2 3


ah sorry, still stuck in 2007. I meant by the end of 2008 



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I said :
" Never lose "

X360 will pass XBOX sales at the end of 2008 !



I mean in NA


and may be in Others
yeah .. can do it easly

Japan is already passed ..



I do not think we will know who the 2 an 3 are yet,
I think if the Wii does what we think it will, it will move forward and not look back.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

Man, if we could get http://www.dfcint.com/game_report/tocbusofvg2004.pdf this paper.

Look at the List of Tables. ;__;