| ioi said: Well we will have to agree to disagree. 12-13m would be record-shattering enough, 15-17m would be insane and I don't believe Wii demand is that high - that would be almost twice the amount PS2 or GBA ever sold in their best year which I can't see I'm afraid. Look at the Japan chart I am about to put up. Having done 600k in one WEEK in Japan in 2005 DS went on to sell 8.42m in 2006, supply constrained all year and selling as much as Nintendo could ship. From this, some may have said that 2007, with supply increasing, could have seen even more sales as we never knew what demand was in 2006 but sales went down in 2007 to 7.31m, not down by much but enough to indicate that the enormous demand that was leading to constant sellouts was now being met and it was starting to sell more regular, albeit enormous, numbers. I suspect the same will happen with Wii, supply will increase enough in 2008 to get to maybe 10-12m for the year but by that point it will stop selling out every time, there will be over 20m Wiis in homes and it will start to assume a more normal sales pattern. This is just my view of course, but demand is not infinite, there will be a point at which the system begins to stop selling out every week. |
I think you will be right about the America Wii sales for 2008, of the max being 15-17m, but it might again be supply issues. I think the Wii is tracking much closer to the DS than the PS2. The PS2 did bring in more gamers, but mainly of the same age group. The DS with Nintendogs brought in a lot of females, and BrainAge a lot of older adults. And pushed 10M+ last year.
Similarly, WiiSports is being in the older adults/families. WiiFit will probably do the same. These are sales that otherwise would not be there for any system. I do think that a new high impact IP for females is needed to boost their sales in that market.
Finally, as their sales grow, they will turn into a bit like the PS2, with a ton of garbage games. Still, some of those games still caught the eye of buyers, and sold units, I imagine.
The sales will most likely be held back some because N. is too cautious about raising production. 17M would be 2x what was given to America for 2007. Like you, I can't imagine them having more inventory to sell.
X360 and PS3 will do better in 2008, PS3 peaks in 2009 or 2010. But it wouldn't suprise me to see 2009 as the peak sales for this generation of consoles. Dipping in 2010, with a new console out in 2011.
Torturing the numbers. Hear them scream.
