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wow.. i didnt know the Wii did less than the GBA in its second year..strange
edit : okay i didnt read your note, nvm =P
Problem with Wii as i've said a few times is there is no way of knowing just how High its deamnd was in 2007, so it will be hard to judge just how much Wii will rise in 2008, unless you know how much nintendo will ship, since it seems likely that Nintendo will remain supply constrained
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
| ioi said: Avinash_Tyagi, Japan with DS has shown that whilst demand isn't being met, it is unrealistic to think that when it is we could suddenly see sales double or more. I think a 10m 2008 for Wii is very possible both in terms of demand and supply, but if people think that were 20m units shipped then 20m could be sold then I think you are overestimating demand slightly. That said, I could see as high as 12-13m, depending on what kind of success Wii Fit and similar titles see in America, Smash Bros being huge is a given, as is Mario Kart and so on, but if Wii Fit performs like Wii Play has this year then I could see demand staying high all year. Otherwise, a point will come whereby demand is met and things begin to slow. I am going to do a similar thread for Japan just for comparison... |
You forget ioi, most PS2's were sold below $200, i believe around 80%, Wii occupies a higher price point ($250), and only one color, i disagree that I am overstating demand, maybe demand at $250 isn't 20 million a year in NA, but Wii has plenty of space to grow its demographic, nintendo could probably drop the price right now if they had to, they don't have to any time soon however, personally i believe that 15-17 million is very possible this year in NA if nintendo ships that much since 10 million+ probably wouldn't have been out of the question in 2007
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
| ioi said: Well we will have to agree to disagree. 12-13m would be record-shattering enough, 15-17m would be insane and I don't believe Wii demand is that high - that would be almost twice the amount PS2 or GBA ever sold in their best year which I can't see I'm afraid. |
PS2 and GBA were never quite as wide reaching as the Wii, I don't see Wii reaching 17 million because of Nintendo supply issues, I don't think Nintendo will ship that many, but I see it still being supply constrained at 12-13 million
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
Yeah, that makes sense. John Lucas is out of this planet with 40 million...
Double ps3's number
drop 360's slightly
drop wii's slightly and we have end of 08 numbers.
2008 end of year predictions:
PS3: 22M
360: 25M
wii: 40M
| zackblue said: drop ps3's number drop 360's slightly Double wii's and we have end of 08 numbers. |
That is more likely, considering Wii sold out in 2007 and is above $200, while PS3 and 360 are gaining the stench of the dying consoles
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
technically Ps3 did AS GOOD as Ds in it's 2nds year....
@ioi
Well my predicition for 2008 is pretty simple.
The thing that was severly holding down ps3 sales was not games, but the price. Now its $200 cheaper.
Therefore I expect ps3 to manage over 5 million in North america this year, as we will not only have a much cheaper price, but we will also have some heavy AAA titles, MGS4, resistance 2, LBP, and other great exclusives.
No as for 360 it should sell about the same, but I say some type of trend developing from the hardcore, there is the possibility ps3 may steal some sales from the 360. Therefore I expect the 360 to be slightly ahead of the ps3 if not = in LTD sales for 2008.
Wii is a huge confusion, I expect the same sales or slightly lower depending on demand.
2008 end of year predictions:
PS3: 22M
360: 25M
wii: 40M
| zackblue said: @ioi Well my predicition for 2008 is pretty simple. The thing that was severly holding down ps3 sales was not games, but the price. Now its $200 cheaper. Therefore I expect ps3 to manage over 5 million in North america this year, as we will not only have a much cheaper price, but we will also have some heavy AAA titles, MGS4, resistance 2, LBP, and other great exclusives. No as for 360 it should sell about the same, but I say some type of trend developing from the hardcore, there is the possibility ps3 may steal some sales from the 360. Therefore I expect the 360 to be slightly ahead of the ps3 if not = in LTD sales for 2008. Wii is a huge confusion, I expect the same sales or slightly lower depending on demand. |
And if Wii demand is higher than last years?
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
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