I didn't realize there was so much apprehension to the Vita (see my defense of it). But for this guy to go on record and throw Nintendo and Sony in the same pit of doom before facebook/mobile gaming is a gross misunderstanding of the dedicated video game market in its tradition. For sure, the 3DS is not fostering monstrous sales like the DS did with hits like Nintendogs and Brain Age. But with the highly successful sales of MH, Mario, MK7, RE and Inzuma in japan, as well as the record-breaking 16Mil units sold in a year, Nintendo has very little to worry about.

Need I mention that facebook and iOS/android were huge in 2008/2009, the DS' peak years?

Please understand this is strictly my opinion, but it sounds like someone trying to take their enemy with them as they are sinking.

The simple fact of the matter is that as long as companies are making games that are worthy of selling handheld consoles, for handheld consoles, the dedicated handheld market will not die

Be miniscule in comparison to the size of the smartphone market? Sure. But that's already happening with consoles and PCs, and no-one seems to complain.

I would also imagine that once the 3G data market becomes more free, we will essentially see the death of the "smart-phone," and the introduction essentially of portable PCs with VoIP functionality. The only reason smartphones remain phones at all is because the phone companies are the ones with a death grip on mobile data access. Equally, with liberalization in the 3G data market, it would be easier for the handheld makers to converge into the system without having to compromise themselves

In short, the market will change, but not go away. People look at these situations without taking into account more than one dimension of technological change.

Personally I.think.this will he Tue last generation of dedicated handheld platforms. I believe it was Genius Sonority that was recently quoted saying future gaming platforms would need phone capabilities. I fully believe Nintendo will make their next handheld with phone capabilities five years from now.

So far Nintendo has resisted the multi model launches that Microsoft and Sony have become famous for. My bet is Nintendo will launch a 199$ handheld device with roughly 2x the power of Vita's. A second phone model will launch at 299$ it will feature the latest generation maybe 5G and come for 50$ through a phone plan. This will give Nintendo an edge to compete against any and all mobile devices.

I suspect if Vita's continues to struggle Sony might launch another model in 2013 alongside PS4. This model.will have phone capabilities and 16 gig internal memory. Coming cheap with a contract.

Neither Sony nor Nintendo would be smart to go another Gen without phone capabilities. Not that I don't think Nintendo could survive without them just that as the economies around the globe struggle people will choose a phone over a handheld console if they have to choose only one. The global economy is going to get increasingly worse and phone functionality will be a necessity if Nintendo wants to maintain the Dual Screen console line ups success.

To follow up on Joel. How hard can it be to have a removable bluetooth earpiece in a 3DS remodel? kinda like the stylus, but an earpiece. There must be some way to achieve it.

I still believe that with Sony having a current deal with Google they should have added some form of the Android Market to the Vita, or do something like Amazon and have some Android games on their marketplace.

I would like some of the games I enjoy playing to be on the Vita, like Zenonia, Minecraft and Fallen Realms.

Maybe if things go sour they would look into it?

I also find it odd to see a doom and gloom Vita from Gamespot after reading this yesterday.

http://www.gamespot.com/gravity-rush/previews/gravity-rush-import-hands-on-a-possible-killer-app-for-the-vita-6350127/

No biggy though, it is like 3DS all over again.

As much as I'm convinced that smart-phones will be around for a long time, I'm not convinced that gaming on smart phones will advance much past flash games replacements for quite some time ...

At the moment a 3DS or PS-Vita game will generate about 10 to 20 times as much revenue per unit sold as the typical pay to play smartphone game, and the pay to play smartphone game will generate about 10 to 20 times as much revenue per unit as the typical ad-supported game. This means to generate the same revenue as a 3DS game that sells 100,000 units you would need to have 1 to 2 Million people pay for it on smart phones, or 10 to 40 Million people play an ad supported version of it. This level of revenue is by no means all that high, and I'm willing to bet that the 3DS in its short life already has more games that have passed this level than smartphones have in the past 5 years.

While I believe that the growth of smartphones in the developing world will eventually lead to smart-phones being able to support a large number of Nintendo DS or PSP quality games based on current buisness models, unless you see a dramatic shift in the business models of app developers there will be a huge market for higher-end content for both the 3DS and PS-Vita (and their successors).

I find it odd that Gamestop thinks Gravity Rush could be a killer app when they already dubbed the Vita itself a literal killer app because it will make you smash your head against a brick wall by virtue of its not being a smartphone.

People miss some things in quoting sales numbers for iOS and Android devices.

They are at best being bought secondarily for gaming. They are either communication devices or music players or video players or Internet connections, etc. How many people buy an iPad or iPhone or iPod as a game playing device only?

The sales of these devices are often replacements to current users -- just like new versions of game units. So it is a closed universe. Or it just another device to have around -- an additional toy not a replacement for an existing one.

Also, the variety of Android phones means it outsells iPhone but it lacks the consistency so not everything runs on everything. This problem is starting to show up on iOS as it releases a new generation every year and two year old hardware can't run the latest Apps.

I am not saying that smart devices don't have an effect on handheld gaming devices. I am only saying that you have to be smart and know what will work and what won't. The days of making a mint with casual games on the DS is probably gone. The days of making money with good games is probably here to stay.

Mike from Morgantown

I would say it depends on what is meant by "casual games" more than anything else ...

Simple flash/arcade games will probably not be as popular on dedicated devices as they once were, but accessable games will still be a huge part of what is successful on the 3DS