Because we don't assume games are coming to platforms unless they're announced for them? Seems simple enough to me.

That percentage of portable gamers will shrink. For me and a good number of my friends we've already decided to skip buying a 3DS and just use our phones for that casual play. Those hard core nintendo fans will surely buy the 3DS for mario and zelda and pikmen. But for those that don't really care about nintendos core first party games your point holds no weight.

I hope im wrong. Because though I've disliked nintendos portables since the DS I do like dedicated portable gaming. I still play my GBA. However, the writing on the wall I see suggests that the current path we are one will cause dedicated portables to become more and more niche. SONY will eventually call it quits. Then we will see if Nintendo adapts to making a phone like device or if they try even more crazy devices.

I think the mobile world is a rather different beast than the home world. But I will say that some of whats going on in the mobile world huge increase in indy, casual, cheap games is also happening in the home world. AAA game studios are folding like a house of cards and indie games are rising to fill in the gaps. Most of that activity is happening in on the PC and MAC, whereas total console sales have been relatively stagnant over the last 3 years. The highest selling of the 3 has seen a marked decline year over year.

That said. Some of the things that apply in the mobile world apply in the console world in terms if differentiation. Yet consoles, with the exception of the Wii and now the WiiU, have been continually migrating towards becoming PCs these last two generations. It will be curious to see how that shakes out, but I think it will take longer to find out than will be the case for mobile gaming. 

You're 150 posts late to the party I'm afraid

@Rol- Best comment of the thread. Lest we forget that Wiimote internal memory as well! So, the Wii Remote is more advanced than the Vita confirmed.

I wouldn't be so certain that remakes would reach a million, or be system-sellers;

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/49135/final-fantasy-iv-the-complete-collection/

This game has been out for about a year on a console with a far larger install base, and yet, it hasn't even managed 400k WW. Now let's have a look at the Metal Gear collection:

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/51649/metal-gear-solid-hd-collection/

300k, add the 360 number and you reach just under 600k. Still a long way off a million, with a combined install base of around 125mil. Surely if any Metal Gear collection woulld be a million-seller, or shift HW, it would be this one.

My point is, collections and re-makes neither push console sales nor do they sell millions. Only original games, like Uncharted, would do this. The best chance of million-sellers on that list would be Uncharted, LittleBigPlanet and Resistance IMO. There may be a constant stream of moderate hits (i.e. will reach about 250k WW), but nothing to attract people to buy the console, and so won't have a large effect on HW sales. 

ff4 isnt nearly as popular as X and the psp had a lot of piracy problems. i guess mgs wont reach 1mil.

but still not having a big selling game in the first few months wont mean a system is doomed as long as the library as a whole and the system features are apealing. i can tell you have a different (biased) view that wont change so it might be a waste of time to post this.

a loooooot of people out there are interested in the vita and will buy it, as the games come out more and more people will buy it. so what if the 3ds sells more? with 2 dedicated handhelds on the market you see the one that sells less as instantly doomed? thats a messed up way of looking at things.

the vita is more expensive and something i wouldnt put in the hands of a kid lightheartedly, it's something a tech lover like me who likes gaming wants.

if the 3ds managed to recover from that (lets face it) crappy launch lineup you think a system with a much more ineteresting lineup wont be able to?

would you like to compare game libraries for the next holiday when the time comes? you might not want to do that, just saying.

my positive views regarding the Vita wont budge and i can hapilly rant on how excited i am about the system, how mindblowing it is to play it, how many great games are coming for it and how i cant wait for the 22nd to come over and over again.

sorry but i'm a happy gamer and regardless of whether you'd like vita to fail or not it's far from doomed.

Far from it. I don't want Vita to fail at all. Infact, I reckon the Vita could be a great success, as I stated in my opening post. However, Sony needs to rectify it's advertising problems, its costs and its games.

Yes, the Vita has a better launch lineup, but it still only has one or two real heavy-hitting games there. And there's a lot of modest hits, but nothing mega that will make hundreds of thousands who are undecided to go out and get the system. So, this needs to be rectified with a huge exclusive, something along the lines of Resident Evil 6, GTA V, Monster Hunter 4 or a breakout hit. I don't see that happening, sadly.

Finally, I find it difficult to see the Vita having a better holiday lineup than the 3DS. Remember- It had 20 free games for Ambassadors, on top of 2 Mario titles, a Monster Hunter, and also supported by a Zelda, 2 Resident Evil games and several smaller hits (Tales of The Abyss, Dead or Alive, games on the eShop, for example). In addition, the future is looking bright for the 3DS, with games like Kid Icarus, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Paper Mario, Monster Hunter 4 and Professor Layton and the Mask Of Miracles all likely to release in the next 12 months, and all with a chance of reaching 1 million copies sold. Then titles like Fire Emblem, Beyond The Labyrinth, Theatrythm, Rayman and others releasing periodically throughout the year to boost the 3DS library, where the 3DS is around half the cost. Parents would likely see more for their kids in the 3DS than in the Vita, keeping their hold on the casual market.

It terms of heavy hitters, the 3DS wins it IMO.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nintendo_3DS_games

Finally, you said that you wouldn't put it in the hands of kids lightheartedly and it's for tech lovers. This is true, but by doing this, they're losing a lot of potential sales. And after the inital rush of the tech-savvy buying it in the launch window, what will keep it afloat? It's doubtful people will buy it on a whim. 

I don't mean to sound hateful or that the Vita is doomed, because it isn't. But, I don't see it selling consistantly well in the future, unless there is a heavy price-drop, heavy advertisement, a real HUGE exclusive, or (preferably) all three, just like the 3DS did last year. It shall be interesting to see what Sony shall do this year.

so like i said, NOT doomed just not selling as well as the 3ds.

i'm sure it will have a constant flow of games coming, so i'm sure it will get heavy hitters in the future.

as for library of games i guess it's a bit relative. I've been gaming for over 20 years and dont care for zelda and mario so that makes nintendo consoles very obsolete to me, what made me want a ds was dragon quest. one of the few apealing games the 3ds had announced for me is now coming to vita also, that made me happy since i cannot enjoy the 3ds screen no matter how many times i look at it. everytime i walk into a store that has one on display i go and see it, turn the 3d on and off but to no avail cant get get past how i hate that screen. the 3ds games graphics are wasted on that screen in my opinion. the handheld needs a redesigned hardware that includes the second analog and a better screen. maybe it's just me, i'm nitpicky about screens.

like you said the vita cant sell constantly unless it appeals to more than just tech freaks who are early adopters, it needs to appeal to gamers. games appeal to gamers and i dont think it's lacking in that regard. that library will keep pilling up both AAA games and casual games and apps. it's very easy to make games for, the online market for that thing will be loaded with games since sony was giving away dev kits to studios.

it will be a very different market approach from nintendo's no doubt but not every brand can relly on iconic figures like mario, that's still atracting new generations.

i seriously doubt kid icarus will be a success when compared to other nintendo IP's

The numbers are now vice versa. One minute is close to a tie, but another minute the "dead on arrival" is 15 or 20 higher points than "not dead on arrival".