RolStoppable said: Seece said: I think it's absurd to think 3DS can get close to 150m. Within the first 6 months Nintendo played a significant card they should have waited to use, it's doing well now but that doesn't mean it's all plain sailing from here on out. The price drop was absolutely necessary, given Nintendo's mistakes in the previous months. Nintendo has no room for error when it comes to third party support. The 3DS installed base needs to be significantly higher than the PSV's, if Nintendo wants good third party support. Now Nintendo can't drop the price much more often anymore, but a business model that relies on starting out expensive and opening up new market segments over time via price cuts is flawed anyway. New market segments are better addressed by being priced reasonably from the start and then releasing varied software. Remember that the DS basically maintained its price of $150 through the majority of its lifecycle and had no trouble selling. The same is still perfectly feasible for the 3DS. Nintendo just needs to release the games instead of playing around with fancy stereoscopic 3D which the market really isn't interested in (aside from the obvious niche). The main problem of Nintendo in the last couple of years has been that their developers made the games they wanted to make rather than the games that the market wanted to buy. The recent losses might have humbled them. At least that's what I hope. 150m 3DSes are impossible with the strategy that was employed through the 3DS's first year, but strategies can change.

Not in all cases no, it's working out pretty well for PS360. The DS and Wii were special cases, they were the IT products of the time, something the 3DS and the WiiU will never be, they'll never come close to DS and Wii status in terms of popularity and casual attention, this is why Nintendo are suddenly turning to third parties and 'core' (use the term very lightly) games. You may think they should have carried on with the same path they were on, but I think Nintendo knew/knows that isn't possible. Not for a couple of generations anyway.

The cut was too drastic and didn't make any sense, I don't get Nintendo's need for the 3DS to bolt out of the gate, then again unlike Sony and MS they're not a company that applies long term strategy to their products.

Look I myself don't care for the Sony Vita. Lets wait for all the doom and gloom and see how it does in the States and Europe before we call it a failure. Now if it does bad in those regions, maybe they are in trouble, but we still have to wait and see what it does during the holidays. One thing is for sure, the 3DS will be very very tough to beat. Nintendo was able to turn it around, and they have some great games coming in the next few weeks. From Resident Evil, Metal Gear 3d and Kid Icarus.

RolStoppable said: Seece said: RolStoppable said: (...) Now Nintendo can't drop the price much more often anymore, but a business model that relies on starting out expensive and opening up new market segments over time via price cuts is flawed anyway. New market segments are better addressed by being priced reasonably from the start and then releasing varied software. Remember that the DS basically maintained its price of $150 through the majority of its lifecycle and had no trouble selling. The same is still perfectly feasible for the 3DS. Nintendo just needs to release the games instead of playing around with fancy stereoscopic 3D which the market really isn't interested in (aside from the obvious niche). (...) Not in all cases no, it's working out pretty well for PS360. The DS and Wii were special cases, they were the IT products of the time, something the 3DS and the WiiU will never be, they'll never come close to DS and Wii status in terms of popularity and casual attention, this is why Nintendo are suddenly turning to third parties and 'core' (use the term very lightly) games. You may think they should have carried on with the same path they were on, but I think Nintendo knew/knows that isn't possible. Not for a couple of generations anyway. The cut was too drastic and didn't make any sense, I don't get Nintendo's need for the 3DS to bolt out of the gate, then again unlike Sony and MS they're not a company that applies long term strategy's to their products. Sure, Seece. Are you really going to tell me now that the PS3 has made a net profit since it launched? You shouldn't include this system as an example where this strategy worked well. Nintendo turning to third parties has more to do with Nintendo developers wishing to make the games they want, something they could do if their systems were carried by third party support like the PS3 and 360. It's not that the Wii/DS strategy wouldn't work again, it's that Nintendo didn't want to take this path again, because it would mean that they have to make trash like Super Mario Bros. The 3DS needed a big installed base quickly in order to secure third party support. The entire system was set up for this purpose. A rushed launch (the eShop came through a firmware update three months later) to get as much of a headstart over the PSV as possible, hardly any first party presence in the launch window with the expectation that it would lead to higher third party software sales and advertised in a way that conveys an image of a technology product, because third parties don't want to work with a toy or something. I am pretty sure that Nintendo has some long term strategy, it's just that it never works as planned, so they start over again in hopes that it has to work eventually. The 3D Mario situation is a microcosm of Nintendo at large, although I think you aren't familiar with this battle that Nintendo is fighting.

Pretty sure Nintendo are ahead of you on this one. They're clearly not afraid of taking risks (although I always stand by my belief that they had little choice but to go with the Wii) If they thought they could have another Wii hit on their hands they would have gone the same route, but they know, and I think most other people realise that it just wasn't going to happen a second time around, it's not radically different enough to capture the casuals immagination, it's just never going to get that IT status whoever they target it at. Nintendo are courting third parties because it's a lot safer and a lot more predictable.

I don't know why you're using PS3 losses as an excuse as to why the strategy doesn't work, different company, different mindset.

I wouldn't be surprised to find Nintendo are worried about their future, every year they're going to have to fight that bit harder than they did last gen to keep 3DS relevent, even if you take games out of the equation, people are still choosing iPhones and the likes over dedicated handhelds.

I believe that the 3ds is a large measure behind ds simply because of the smartphone market. DS basically had apps before apps existed. Now, it's having to face the fact that it can't compete with the expanded market the way it did before.

theprof00 said: Conegamer said: RolStoppable said: Conegamer said: Woot! Our gamestation got their first pre-order today!!! First week projections: 85-95k Europe 100-110k Americas 250-265k overall (not including Japan) I hope for your sake that this is a projection for only a single store chain and not the entire market. Not quite. Pre-orders. Projection for pre-orders? I'm confused as to whether you're a fan of the Vita or not. You act like you are, but then act like Monster Hunter isn't a sure thing and really lowball the projected first week?

Yep, my projected pre-orders. I reckon closer to 400k FW for actual sales. I'm neutral towards the Vita. On the one hand, I think the console looks amazing and was rather impressed when I tried it in Game. However, I think Sony are handling the launch incredibly poorly (cost, needing memory cards, launch after Christmas, lack of advertisements), and so I don't feel confident of the console's long-term success. Will I get one? Probably, but not at launch. I need more to persuade me at that price. But I certainly like the console.

Conegamer said: theprof00 said: Conegamer said: RolStoppable said: Conegamer said: Woot! Our gamestation got their first pre-order today!!! First week projections: 85-95k Europe 100-110k Americas 250-265k overall (not including Japan) I hope for your sake that this is a projection for only a single store chain and not the entire market. Not quite. Pre-orders. Projection for pre-orders? I'm confused as to whether you're a fan of the Vita or not. You act like you are, but then act like Monster Hunter isn't a sure thing and really lowball the projected first week? Yep, my projected pre-orders. I reckon closer to 400k FW for actual sales. I'm neutral towards the Vita. On the one hand, I think the console looks amazing and was rather impressed when I tried it in Game. However, I think Sony are handling the launch incredibly poorly (cost, needing memory cards, launch after Christmas, lack of advertisements), and so I don't feel confident of the console's long-term success. Will I get one? Probably, but not at launch. I need more to persuade me at that price. But I certainly like the console.

First week? You know it sold 320k in Japan first week, right? It might be 400k for Europe alone.
I'm thinking it's gunna be 700-800k first week.

It's launching during tax season. This is the perfect time to launch as everyone is getting back a grand or two. The memory cards is not going to be a big issue. 400k is even still really, really underestimating it.

A touch off-topic, but I believe it's absurd that the 3DS will outsell the DS. Nintendo had to really slice the price by a fair amount to get people really interested in the console.

Nintendo have really played their trump card early in the game to keep the 3DS afloat. Now, they COULD theoretically keep the momentum going, but for how long? 1 year? 3? 5? Would that be enough to beat the DS? No.

And that really is best-case scenario. With the rise of mobile gaming, people are choosing to 'abandon' the dedicated handheld for their mobile apps. So I reckon the 3DS will reach Wii levels (100-110mil) and be a huge success for Nintendo. It may be the last dedicated handheld gen, this.

Conegamer said: theprof00 said: Conegamer said: RolStoppable said: Conegamer said: Woot! Our gamestation got their first pre-order today!!! First week projections: 85-95k Europe 100-110k Americas 250-265k overall (not including Japan) I hope for your sake that this is a projection for only a single store chain and not the entire market. Not quite. Pre-orders. Projection for pre-orders? I'm confused as to whether you're a fan of the Vita or not. You act like you are, but then act like Monster Hunter isn't a sure thing and really lowball the projected first week? Yep, my projected pre-orders. I reckon closer to 400k FW for actual sales. I'm neutral towards the Vita. On the one hand, I think the console looks amazing and was rather impressed when I tried it in Game. However, I think Sony are handling the launch incredibly poorly (cost, needing memory cards, launch after Christmas, lack of advertisements), and so I don't feel confident of the console's long-term success. Will I get one? Probably, but not at launch. I need more to persuade me at that price. But I certainly like the console.

Cone I say this in the nicest way possible, you're not neutral to anything non Nintendo, it's plastered all over your post history. That's ok though, wear your Nintendo badge with pride

I don't know how you can project pre orders either, surely that's just random guessing on your part?

I agree they've set it up for a poor start though, the PSP was on life support long before DS was, they should have got it out the gate last christmas WW at the latest.

theprof00 said: Conegamer said: theprof00 said: Conegamer said: RolStoppable said: Conegamer said: Woot! Our gamestation got their first pre-order today!!! First week projections: 85-95k Europe 100-110k Americas 250-265k overall (not including Japan) I hope for your sake that this is a projection for only a single store chain and not the entire market. Not quite. Pre-orders. Projection for pre-orders? I'm confused as to whether you're a fan of the Vita or not. You act like you are, but then act like Monster Hunter isn't a sure thing and really lowball the projected first week? Yep, my projected pre-orders. I reckon closer to 400k FW for actual sales. I'm neutral towards the Vita. On the one hand, I think the console looks amazing and was rather impressed when I tried it in Game. However, I think Sony are handling the launch incredibly poorly (cost, needing memory cards, launch after Christmas, lack of advertisements), and so I don't feel confident of the console's long-term success. Will I get one? Probably, but not at launch. I need more to persuade me at that price. But I certainly like the console. First week? You know it sold 320k in Japan first week, right? It might be 400k for Europe alone. I'm thinking it's gunna be 700-800k first week. It's launching during tax season. This is the perfect time to launch as everyone is getting back a grand or two. The memory cards is not going to be a big issue. 400k is even still really, really underestimating it.

The Japan launch also included the holiday boost, though. If it launched now, the number would probably be around half that. So 235 Europe and 190 America is what I reckon (which is damn good).

RolStoppable said: Seece said: Pretty sure Nintendo are ahead of you on this one. They're clearly not afraid of taking risks (although I always stand by my belief that they had little choice but to go with the Wii) If they thought they could have another Wii hit on their hands they would have gone the same route, but they know, and I think most other people realise that it just wasn't going to happen a second time around, it's not radically different enough to capture the casuals immagination, it's just never going to get that IT status whoever they target it at. Nintendo are courting third parties because it's a lot safer and a lot more predictable. I don't know why you're using PS3 losses as an excuse as to why the strategy doesn't work, different company, different mindset. I wouldn't be surprised to find Nintendo are worried about their future, every year they're going to have to fight that bit harder than they did last gen to keep 3DS relevent, even if you take games out of the equation, people are still choosing iPhones and the likes over dedicated handhelds. The safest bet argument doesn't fly, because then Nintendo would have launched the 3DS with Super Mario Bros. 3DS, a sequel to the #1 selling game on the DS. The DS game released in 2006 and never got a sequel, so there was more than enough time to get the game ready for the 3DS launch. Releasing a sequel to your biggest IP on the launch day of a new system is the safest bet to get off to a good start. The reality is that Nintendo didn't even have the logo to show for SMB 3DS when they announced it at their last briefing, so everything points to a reaction to poor 3DS sales and the game may have not been made at all, if the 3DS had sold well. Let this sink in for a while: Nintendo would deliberately forego making a sequel to their biggest IP, that's how messed up things have been inside the company in the last couple of years. Would Microsoft stop making Halo? Unthinkable. I said the strategy is flawed and the PS3 is a good example of why it is. There's a chance that it does work, but if it doesn't, the company is screwed. Sony lost a lot of marketshare, mindshare and profits this generation. I am pretty sure that Miyamoto is worried about his future, because he can't have his way. But Nintendo, as a company, has all the IPs and talent it takes to keep making dedicated gaming platforms, but their businessmen need to bitchslap their developers more often, because it's very much needed. even if you take games out of the equation, people are still choosing iPhones and the likes over dedicated handhelds. This sentence really doesn't make sense, because the only reason why people would choose iPhones and the likes over dedicated handhelds is if you take games out of the equation. A handheld without games is worthless, after all.

Nintendo pulled a Sony. They thought their brand could carry their system. It has nothing to do with courting devs and everything to do with Sony-level arrogance.

Just look at the wii and how well they've been supporting that. They're certainly not courting any third parties with the wii.
The problem IS that the businessmen have bitchslapped the developers. They had a sure thing and so released nothing of great import for the last 6 years.

As far as that quote, seece is saying even without the games smartphones offer, they're still choosing smartphones because smartphone are basically a more value-laden DS. DS was known for its peripheral software. Translation, scheduling, training. The DS was a do it all system for less than a quarter of the price of a blackberry. Now, smartphones do the same for the same price, and with free software, and no memory cards to switch in and out. At least that's what I think he's saying.