Projection for pre-orders?

I'm confused as to whether you're a fan of the Vita or not. You act like you are, but then act like Monster Hunter isn't a sure thing and really lowball the projected first week?

I think it's pretty clear Cone is a Ninty only fan 0_o

Cone, where are those pre order estimates from? Can't be from a retailer, they wouldn't have WW info on all retail/online outlets like that ... only people that would know those numbers are Sony surely.

I'm guessing he's somehow extrapolating a pre-order projection based on his store receiving its first pre-order (amazingly so).

How does your store now have only a single preorder???? And..a week before it drops? I've had mine reserved for two months now.

I don't know how many gamestations there are, but if he's factoring one reservation per day / per store for 7 days, maybe that's it? Also 95k in Europe, 110 in Americas, 265 total? Where are the other 60k being sold? Africa? Australia? If so, you can count 59,999 for Australia as I don't think rol is getting one.

..and 8 months from now?

all i know is this last gen (in both wii/HD and DS/psp)  as taught me that last years performance will not provide insight into next years.  consumers seems waaay more fickle than before and the market can change on a dime.  the 3DS turnaround has already proved that for this gen to boot!

but overall, i stand by my prediction that both vita and 3ds will fail to reach the sales of their predicessors, apple will see to that.  I once thought that the 3ds/vita ratio would be at least closer to 1 then last gen ... i'm not so sure about that anymore though.  looks like that 2:1 ratio might still be appropriate.

I think it's absurd to think 3DS can get close to 150m. Within the first 6 months Nintendo played a significant card they should have waited to use, it's doing well now but that doesn't mean it's all plain sailing from here on out.

Technically, it was 800 dimes.

..that and if you alian the 3DS to the DS things are only about even right now but if you look further out into DS's performance you'll notice a dramatic increas in performance about 18-22 months out.  that's when the 3DS is likely to really fall behind on aligned launches.

And what if Ninty comes up with a new version of the 3DS with 2 sticks, more battery etc. for 200-250$? there are enough significant cards left, imho.

Or perhaps the 3DS will top the DS sales still then, because the 3rd-Party lineup is much better (Resident Evil!, Metal Gear!, Tekken!, Street Fighter!, Monster Hunter!) than for DS.

i'd have to check my timeline to be 100% sure but the bump in sales came quite specifically from software and specifically release of nintendogs and brain training.  those 3rd party games were and the DS and gameboy before and not the reason for the fanastic DS sales numbers.  as Rol stated above, their stategy can change but right now I don't see them working to recreate the real reason the DS was soo successful.  bumps from price drops are temporary, without software to back it up 3DS will decline and right now I don't see nintendo developing the kind of games they really need to be developing.

edit - and since this thread is about vita ... lol at sony finding that market.