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Forums - Gaming - Paradox: Next console generation will probably be "the last generation"

happydolphin said:
theprof00 said:
happydolphin said:
theprof00 said:

I showed some examples of why I think that is true, based on the fact that for traditional gamers, there is really only mario and platformers.

1 word... No. Rol, care to kick in, I'm not  a list-jutsu expert. :P Plus, didn't you bring up LKS (sim-rpg) and Muramasa:demon blade (action-rpg)? How could you say there is only mario and platforms, that would logically mean you yourself aren't a true gamer, and that's not true. I rather think your presumption is wrong... ;P

I'm having trouble following your argument. Because two games exist, then suddenly there is plenty enough to sustain multiple demographics?

It's called proof by counterexample.

The proposition:

"there is really only mario and platformers."

And its counter-examples you so kindly provided, both considered RPGs on wikipedia:

LKS, Murasama 

Basically, I can see your argument IF you can give me a traditionally core genre besides platforming that is readily available in abundance on the wii.

I understand, but you do realize loose wording like "there is really only mario and platformers." really annoys the heck out of Nintendo gamers. It makes you sound ignorant, and it's very misleading. There are many more games in other genres, but I'm leaving that up to others I'm not big on list wars...

Secondly, this is only one line of my argument, which in total was saying that based on the limited number of unique franchise titles available for platforming, once someone has beaten something like Donkey Kong, there is no 2nd donkey kong, they MUST play a different franchise, thereby relegating a core platform buyer to buying every franchise platformer.

With this logic you will enrage Nintendo fans, as they are constantly being told "Nintendo does nothing but milking their platforms"... One day they are told that, now they are told this... What is it people want??? :$

This results in the very similar sales of the nintendo franchise platformers beginning to who the actual traditional core userbase.

I don't understand this sentence, esp. bold. Honest uncertainty, sorry ... :S

Had I not written the qualifier "really", I would agree with you.

The sentence, specifically bolded, was supposed to say "beginning to show who", as in the nintendo franchises are so similar in sales, and have such few sequels, that for a platformer to get his fix, must buy others, resulting in dramatic overlap.

EDIT: Oh, and muramasa is so much more a platformer than an rpg. RPGs aren't simply defined as having ability levels. It's platforming with a touch of RPG. Also, LKS is a real-time strategy.



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RolStoppable said:
theprof00 said:

Seems to be bogus? Haha. NICE COUNTER. No evidence, just words. Classic.

:D at the remake. Hilarious how the first level of NSMBDS is SMB level 1, and all the enemies from SMW are used. It's a throwback. It's a revival. It is so obviously geared toward the nostalgia crowd. Even all the ads showed level one and growing huge and just running through the level, at the end of the commercial, it's showing world 1-2.

 

I  OWN the game, and what made me buy it was that it was a throw back. That commercial is what sold me.

The proof is in your thread from 2009. You couldn't drive your points home. You had to concede that there are gaping holes in your hypothesis. Sorry that I didn't see your response to c0rd the first time. The formating of that post is messed up, likely due to site changes.

The first level of NSMB isn't the same as the first level of SMB, you must have been tricked by the blend of the commercial. Also, it doesn't show world 1-2 at the end of the commercial. It's actually just an underground section of NSMB's 1-1, just look at the top screen where it even says 1-1.

And this brings us to a crossroad. Either your memory is good for nothing or you are lying about owning the game. Pick your poison.

The points about NSMB are really simple things. The fact that you mess them up this badly seriouly undermines your credibility in this discussion.

The point is right here:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4389537

Where is the counter?

In that response, cOrd created some of his own assumptions. He asked if I could do the same with the HD consoles. The answer is no, it's not possible, because many demographics are served equally. To represent it metaphorically, Mario and the other nintendo franchises are to Halo, what fitness games are to racing games, with the exception that HD also dominates JRPG, and third person adventure, and Western RPG, etc. The difference, clearly, is that nintendo's next demographic is not a traditional core, but expanded audience, where the opposite is true of the HD consoles.

The other problem cOrd had was that he said if wii fit buyers seldom buy other games (one of my points showing how small the core was) then attach rate would be absurdly high:

 

To which I responded:

"To those who are talking about attach rates:

360 is about 8 or 9

say people who bought wii fit bought wii fit, have wii sports, and possibly another fitness game. Like I said, the numbers aren't completely rigid, there is always bound to be some variability. But let's say those people do only own 2 games. 51M wii owners*6 attach rate = 306M 20M wii fit owners*2games=40M. 

266M games /31M owners =8.6 attach rate. And all of a sudden, wii attach rate makes sense with the other traditional console's attach rate."

This doesn't even factor in that you also get wii play with a second controller, but I was being generous with the statistics. The attach wouldn't be absurdly high in any respect.

Also, his point that "Wii fit only came out last year, I know it's a system seller, but that is pushing it", does not take into account owners who only own 1 or 2 games, and then bought wii fit and are content with that.

 

He also mentions that he doesn't understand the number because how could every single one buy SMG. Again, it's called overlapping of demographics. Though extremely muted.It's not that every core bought a copy, but that a great many did, since it's the only mario on the system at the time. People buy Nitnendo consoles for the first party. The same can't be said about the HD consoles, because the HD consoles have such a wide variety of traditional core game genres that 360 isn't all about master chief. The same can't be said about the wii's traditional core genres. 



theprof00 said:

Had I not written the qualifier "really", I would agree with you.

No, it still sounds ignorant and is aggravating, especially given the sheers quantity of niche, quality titles you can find on Wii. As I said someone else jump in I don't like list wars. :S But I do apprciate your candor. Agree to disagree. Try to be less controversial if you can, you know it's a touchy point...

The sentence, specifically bolded, was supposed to say "beginning to show who", as in the nintendo franchises are so similar in sales, and have such few sequels, that for a platformer to get his fix, must buy others, resulting in dramatic overlap.

Impossible. DKCR versus NSMBWii:

NameGenreUser ScoreUSAEuropeJapanGlobal
New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii) Platform 8.95 10.74 5.82 4.41

24.14

Donkey Kong Country Returns (Wii) Platform 9.11 2.34 1.41 1.00

5.45

Now what? Trad Nintendo Core = 5.45-ish or 24.14-ish? These two platformers performed way differently in sales...

Off to drink ,  enjoy the evening.



happydolphin said:
theprof00 said:

Had I not written the qualifier "really", I would agree with you.

No, it still sounds ignorant and is aggravating, especially given the sheers quantity of niche, quality titles you can find on Wii. As I said someone else jump in I don't like list wars. :S But I do apprciate your candor. Agree to disagree. Try to be less controversial if you can, you know it's a touchy point...

The sentence, specifically bolded, was supposed to say "beginning to show who", as in the nintendo franchises are so similar in sales, and have such few sequels, that for a platformer to get his fix, must buy others, resulting in dramatic overlap.

Impossible. DKCR versus NSMBWii:

NameGenreUser ScoreUSAEuropeJapanGlobal
New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii) Platform 8.95 10.74 5.82 4.41

24.14

Donkey Kong Country Returns (Wii) Platform 9.11 2.34 1.41 1.00

5.45

Now what? Trad Nintendo Core = 5.45-ish or 24.14-ish? These two platformers performed way differently in sales...

Off to drink ,  enjoy the evening.


I already explained to you much earlier that you're not looking at traditional-core buying a traditional-core game. You're looking at lapsed gamers and nostalgia core buying a traditional core game (people who don't even game, or have very little interest until the nostalgia made them buy it).

Compare it to every single other wii platformer. You can't cling to one thing and call it support. The "many" is called the support. The singular is called the exception. And exceptions come with explanations, and I've just provided you with one.

I also have a wii with about 15 games. I have all the nintendo first party games, and most niche ones and I know from experience because I'm always looking up hidden gems, that there are barely any. LKS and muramasa are head and shoulders above any other genre entries on the system.



RolStoppable said:
theprof00 said:

The point is right here:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4389537

Where is the counter?

In that response, cOrd created some of his own assumptions. He asked if I could do the same with the HD consoles. The answer is no, it's not possible, because many demographics are served equally. To represent it metaphorically, Mario and the other nintendo franchises are to Halo, what fitness games are to racing games, with the exception that HD also dominates JRPG, and third person adventure, and Western RPG, etc. The difference, clearly, is that nintendo's next demographic is not a traditional core, but expanded audience, where the opposite is true of the HD consoles.

 

So your methodology to evaluate the size of the traditional core gamer demographic can't be used for any system other than the Wii. That in itself shows how flawed your hypothesis is.

I accuse you of bending the truth and omitting facts to arrive at the conclusion you desire. Now I could either get myself drawn in a lengthy discussion about your traditional core gamer argument and point out fallacy after fallacy or I could simply point to our back and forth regarding NSMB. I am going to go with the latter, because it saves both of us a lot of time. The example of NSMB shows that you have a clear agenda against Nintendo, their games and their fans which proves my aforementioned accusation correct.

You're going with the latter because you have nothing else.

Oh wait...you'e just been trolling me...

How does this always happen? Man, you're either extremely good at this, or you're just saying it mockingly...fuck.

Oh well, evaluating the other consoles is impossible because a great portion of the gamers are all traditional core. It is easy to do on the wii because there is such a clear disparity between  the demographics. A racing fan on 360 might end up buying lots of the main titles as well. Another spot when you notice the difference on wii is that the games that sell a million or less are so amazingly scattershot, so you can easily see where the informed traditional core make purchases, the uninformed box-art buyers, and the word of mouth buyers (wii fit), 2 out of those 3 aren't traditional core. That proves my case one and for all. No objections. Verdict is guilty. Those are the only 3 demographics. Period.



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RolStoppable said:

No, it is really because of the reason I said: It saves both of us a lot of time. That's my modus operanti: Short, succinct, straight to the point.

But if you insist on going with the former, here are a couple of problems with your hypothesis:

1. The assumption that each demographic keeps making purchases within their boundaries. In other words, a traditional core gamer would never buy Wii Fit or Wii Sports Resort, for example. Or a Wii Fit/Wii Sports player would never touch Super Mario Galaxy.

2. The informed traditional core. I guess here you are talking more specifically about the gamers who soak up every bit of gaming news and are thus in the know about pretty much every niche title. Basically, we are talking about sales of games that do not get TV commercials. Now eliminate all games with TV commericals from the HD consoles' bestseller list. What you will be looking at will be the same picture as for the Wii. The actual difference between Wii and HD software sales is that third parties bother to make games that match the quality of first party software AND advertise them for the 360 and PS3. If it's on TV, it doesn't take an informed gamer, because TV is the medium that reaches the biggest amount of people.

I also have a wii with about 15 games. I have all the nintendo first party games, and most niche ones and I know from experience because I'm always looking up hidden gems, that there are barely any. LKS and muramasa are head and shoulders above any other genre entries on the system.

I also have to respond to this, because it's yet another instance where your bias shines through. About 15 games don't add up to all Nintendo first party games and most niche ones, not even if you restrict the list to traditional core games.

Then you say something interesting, that LKS and Muramasa are above everything else. Now the only question is in which way did you mean this?

1. Best games on the system, period. Well, that would be completely personal opinion. No place for this in a discussion that is supposed to be factual.

2. Best games of their respective genre. Again, personal opinion. Especially when LKS gets trounced by the New Play Control releases of Pikmin and Pikmin 2. Muramasa is a sidescrolling action-RPG, but it's about the only one on the system, so I guess you are right. Then again, you classified it as platformer, but if it really were one, it would be up against huge competition on the Wii.

Regardless, it's a good example of your agenda. People who share your taste are good and people who don't are lesser gamers that fall into one of three categories:
  • 1. Superficial Nintendo gamer
  • 2. Uninformed boxart buyer
  • 3. Word of mouth buyer

1st 1. I never said never. I said closely related and "seldom". Funny how both you and c0rd don't understand the word.

1st 2. Nope, I just mean the regular trad-core who know that games are coming out. People that scour online are hardcore gamers. And wow, get this. Sony and 360 actually help fund their ad campaigns. When a multiplat comes out and it says "jump in" at the end? 100% funded by MS. Too bad Nintendo can't wrap its brain around actually encouraging competition. It's just too bad for you and your point that Nintendo goes out of their way to make sure the only games people know about on the wii are their own platformers. After the past 2 generations, you'd think Nintendo would realize this, unless they were for some reason doing it purposely??

2nd 1. I have the respectable ones. Seeing as how I never updated my games  on the profile (I was too embarrassed to admit I played with toys), I'll list them for you. DK, Galaxy, Kirby EY, NSMBWii, Metroid, Twilight Princess, Muramasa, Little Kings story, tiger woods, Smash, cave story, punch out, monster hunter...and I know I'm missing some others....endless ocean 2....silent hill....some naruto game I got as a shitty gift... granted I also have 3 other consoles and a pc, so, sorry that I only have 15+. Now see, my eclectic variety is because I scour for great games.  Those are their best games, that is a fact.

2nd 2. Eww, pikmin better than LKS? Now I knows you trollin'. but yes, rpg action sidescroller is a better term for muramasa.

 

And again, no, I'm not calling you any of those either. I'm saying that there are clear differences in the demographics. It's like milk. It comes in several types. Chocolate, skim, whole, 2%, 1%, soy.

Now people that drink 1 and skim might also drink 2%, as they are very similar. People who drink skim might not drink 2, since 2% is closer to whole the skim, which is very light, and chances are, people drink skim for health and so don't have too much chocolate milk. People drinking soy can't drink anything else.

It's the same. You can pick out the demographics when you put thought into it and say, this percentage are health conscious, that percentage  don't drink milk at all, this percentage don't care, etc etc. You COULD do the same with the HD consoles, but instead of saying "this many is the traditional core base" you'd have to say "this many are the shooter fans" etc. Because a majority of the genres are traditional core.



Rol made the winning point somewhere back there. If it weren't for the massive anti-Nintendo third-party conspiracy, Wii would have been a perfectly effective mainstream gaming console (this argument is still being derailed by the use of this word "core"), because third parties would have rounded out the edges Nintendo failed to fill

The industry conspiracy is the root of most of the Wii's problems



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

No.



Mr Khan said:
Rol made the winning point somewhere back there. If it weren't for the massive anti-Nintendo third-party conspiracy, Wii would have been a perfectly effective mainstream gaming console (this argument is still being derailed by the use of this word "core"), because third parties would have rounded out the edges Nintendo failed to fill

The industry conspiracy is the root of most of the Wii's problems


I agree with you that the 3rd parties COULD have filled in where Nintendo didn't and also agree that they didn't for some reason. I think you're going too far to consider it a "conspiracy." I think it's mainly that a lot of the workforce just doesn't want to work on the Wii because it doesn't offer them what they want.

I personally wouldn't want to develop for the Wii if given a chance to develop for the HD twins because the Wii doesn't offer ways to advance my skills in the way I want to. Speaking as a game developer and engineer, most people like me want to keep advancing their careers and learning new things. The PS3 and 360 offer a different toolset to work with thant he Wii.  The tools and skills that some people have been nuturing and advancing (graphics, AI, "cutting edge" type stuff) for most of their careers could continue to grow if they work on the HD twins and wouldn't necessarily grow if they worked on the Wii. Thus, some engineers just flat out would rather work on the HD twins for the sake of their careers and knowledge.

No, I'm not saying the Wii doesn't offer learning and advancement of skill set in other skills. Developing for the Wii can definetly advance optimization, dealing with new input methods and drastic changes in game design but I would think these skills mainly fall to game developers and not engineers.

just my opinion of course, I could be talking out of my rear end.



EncodedNybble said:
Mr Khan said:
Rol made the winning point somewhere back there. If it weren't for the massive anti-Nintendo third-party conspiracy, Wii would have been a perfectly effective mainstream gaming console (this argument is still being derailed by the use of this word "core"), because third parties would have rounded out the edges Nintendo failed to fill

The industry conspiracy is the root of most of the Wii's problems


I agree with you that the 3rd parties COULD have filled in where Nintendo didn't and also agree that they didn't for some reason. I think you're going too far to consider it a "conspiracy." I think it's mainly that a lot of the workforce just doesn't want to work on the Wii because it doesn't offer them what they want.

I personally wouldn't want to develop for the Wii if given a chance to develop for the HD twins because the Wii doesn't offer ways to advance my skills in the way I want to. Speaking as a game developer and engineer, most people like me want to keep advancing their careers and learning new things. The PS3 and 360 offer a different toolset to work with thant he Wii.  The tools and skills that some people have been nuturing and advancing (graphics, AI, "cutting edge" type stuff) for most of their careers could continue to grow if they work on the HD twins and wouldn't necessarily grow if they worked on the Wii. Thus, some engineers just flat out would rather work on the HD twins for the sake of their careers and knowledge.

No, I'm not saying the Wii doesn't offer learning and advancement of skill set in other skills. Developing for the Wii can definetly advance optimization, dealing with new input methods and drastic changes in game design but I would think these skills mainly fall to game developers and not engineers.

just my opinion of course, I could be talking out of my rear end.


I don't buy into the BS argument that the Wii lacks the technology to "inspire" game development because if that was the case there would be even less support for the DS, PSP, iPhone, and the HD consoles would have been abandoned by now for high end gaming PCs ...

The simple explaination for the support the Wii got is that third party publishers believed the Wii wasn't going to be particularly successful, redirected the vast majority of their quality development teams to games that would be released for the XBox 360, PS3 and PC, and then avoided creating any similar games for the Wii to protect their investment in the HD games; after all, if you've spent $40+ Million on a HD game (and over $100 Million including marketing) you probably don't want to spend an addition $10 Million to make a quality Wii game that will only detract from sales of your big budget game.