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Forums - General Discussion - Obama loses in the November 2012 election, now what? Hypothetically speaking....

badgenome said:
Squilliam said:
badgenome said:
Squilliam said:
The toilets will flush the other way.

A toilet being flushed does seem an appropriate metaphor for Obama losing his reelection bid.

What is a white lie?

That black people are equal.

I'm not sure why you'd say that. Obama has certainly proved himself equal to the last asshole when it comes to the task of fucking things up. Or maybe that's because of his white half?

What do you call a black guy climbing a power pole?

Black power!

I told a homeless man I was taking him home, he smiled until I picked up his card board box and walked off with it.

Actually it doesn't matter who is president because they'll likely be just as bad anyway.



Tease.

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spurgeonryan said:
HappySqurriel said:
It really depends who the Republican candidate is, how the congressional elections go, and what the economy looks like ...




As of right now, even with little silver linings here and there, the economy does not look great, good, or mediocre. Auto industry is doing well, consumers are spending, and unemployment is down a bit..... Is that all?


You've got to understand that with what is happening in the economy today we could be looking at drastically different conditions 12 months from now ...

The European sovergn debt crisis is one of many situations which may end up either being managed and controlled or it could devolve into an economic crisis. How a president reacts to an economy with moderately high unemployment and slow growth would be substantially different than how a president would react to an economy with high unemployment and rapid deflation.



Our problem is the government. The ENTIRE government.

The only one who wants to drastically change the government? Ron Paul.

He has my vote.



spurgeonryan said:
Ssenkahdavic said:
Our problem is the government. The ENTIRE government.

The only one who wants to drastically change the government? Ron Paul.

He has my vote.


So unlike obama, you think Ron Paul will be able to handle congress and make the changes that we need. 

 

How will he go about that? It seemed obama's heart was in the right place as well, but ever last thing seemed to be debated for ever! we barely did not default because no one was able to agree on any strategies. Now our rating has gone down and might again.

 

Our Government is Bull!

No one can handle congress.  As you said, "Our Government is Bull" and congress is the worst part. 

The way to handle a hostile congress (that will probably get even worse next term) is to move some of the power away from them.  You would do that by moving away from an evergrowing Central Government and moving the power back to the states.  

There are some things that should NOT be privatized (The Miliary, Police Form, Judicial System, etc) but everything else should be moved either out of the governments blanket control to the states or made private.  

As for our rating...I really do not think it should have gone down in the first place (neither did the other 2 rating companies), but I think it needed to.  How better to show America how our fiscal policies are terrible than to hit us where we will all feel it, in the pocketbook.



The partisan nature of American politics is about as self defeating a situation as anything the world has ever seen. How can you fix anything when half of the government is committed to seeing you fail?

It really surprises me that people even care anymore. Or at least truly believe things will actually be accomplished in a beneficial way.



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Obama is not going to lose 2012, the gop lineup is quite weak imo.



ImJustBayuum said:
Obama is not going to lose 2012, the gop lineup is quite weak imo.


While I'm probably sounding like a broken record, I think Obama's chances of re-election are entirely dependent on the state of the economy ...

If the unemployment rate falls below 8%, inflation remains under control, and there is no shock to the economy Obama will (easily) win re-election. On the other hand, if unemployment increases significantly, people start feeling the effects of inflation, or there is a shock to the economy that leads to government intervention (especially a bailout) Obama would lose an election running against Paulie Shore.



HappySqurriel said:
ImJustBayuum said:
Obama is not going to lose 2012, the gop lineup is quite weak imo.


While I'm probably sounding like a broken record, I think Obama's chances of re-election are entirely dependent on the state of the economy ...

If the unemployment rate falls below 8%, inflation remains under control, and there is no shock to the economy Obama will (easily) win re-election. On the other hand, if unemployment increases significantly, people start feeling the effects of inflation, or there is a shock to the economy that leads to government intervention (especially a bailout) Obama would lose an election running against Paulie Shore.

1. Significant increase to unemployment %
All signs points to a slowly recovering economy in 2012, chances of a major increase is very low

2. People start feeling the effects of inflation
People are already feeling the effects of inflation. Interest rates can always increase to reduce any significant inflationary effects.

3. Major shock to the economy that would lead to a bailout
I agree with this. If for example the iranian sanctions saga worsens with the closure of the strait, then oil prices could may will hinder the the growth outlook for the US economy for 2012. 

Obama's chances lie with the US economy in 2012, absolutely, But what could a republican replacement do different to obama's performance on the US economy. How will they curb very high inflation or reduce the unemployment or insulate the economy from a major shock..Voters will compare and analyse Obama and whoever the wins the GOP nomination. Right now, none of the current republican candidates, IMO, will bring any real change in responses, policies to the economy or US issues in general. Best to stick with certainty (obama).



ImJustBayuum said:
HappySqurriel said:
ImJustBayuum said:
Obama is not going to lose 2012, the gop lineup is quite weak imo.


While I'm probably sounding like a broken record, I think Obama's chances of re-election are entirely dependent on the state of the economy ...

If the unemployment rate falls below 8%, inflation remains under control, and there is no shock to the economy Obama will (easily) win re-election. On the other hand, if unemployment increases significantly, people start feeling the effects of inflation, or there is a shock to the economy that leads to government intervention (especially a bailout) Obama would lose an election running against Paulie Shore.

1. Significant increase to unemployment %
All signs points to a slowly recovering economy in 2012, chances of a major increase is very low

2. People start feeling the effects of inflation
People are already feeling the effects of inflation. Interest rates can always increase to reduce any significant inflationary effects.

3. Major shock to the economy that would lead to a bailout
I agree with this. If for example the iranian sanctions saga worsens with the closure of the strait, then oil prices could may will hinder the the growth outlook for the US economy for 2012. 

Obama's chances lie with the US economy in 2012, absolutely, But what could a republican replacement do different to obama's performance on the US economy. How will they curb very high inflation or reduce the unemployment or insulate the economy from a major shock..Voters will compare and analyse Obama and whoever the wins the GOP nomination. Right now, none of the current republican candidates, IMO, will bring any real change in responses, policies to the economy or US issues in general. Best to stick with certainty (obama).

1) I don't know where you are getting your information from but I suspect it is from the mainstream media rather than financial news sources. There is a very high probability that Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain will default this year which will have cascading effects throughout the European economy and, being that the worldwide financial markets are connected and Europe as a region represents the United States largest trading partner, the United States.

Even if that doesn't happen, last years "Arab Spring" has created massive instability throughout the Middle East. There is a significant probability that this instability could translate into a series of events which results in the disruption of the production or distribution of oil causing significant increases. With how $120+ oil/barrel impacts people's disposable income and company’s bottom lines, any major price increase of oil will have a dramatic impact on unemployment.

Beyond that, many states are nearly bankrupt and they're probably going to need to increase taxes and cut spending to avoid default this year; which will have a significant impact on unemployment throughout the United States.

When you factor in everything, it is almost equal the likelihood that the economy will improve, stay the same or get worse with a small "advantage" to getting worse. Certainly, the mainstream media has been talking about how great this year will be, but they have been cheerleading for the administration and a recovery since mid 2009.

 

2) People do feel inflation but, with how much money is in circulation currently, it is possible that any "recovery" will be associated with much higher inflation. While the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates this would have a significant impact to any "recovery".

 

 

 

Now, whether any of the Republicans could do any better is largely irrelevant when it comes to the election results. The presidency will be won or lost based on a handful of swing voters in a handful of swing states; which happen to be some of the states with the highest unemployment rates and slowest economic growth rates. If the economy gets worse, these swing voters will likely vote against Obama regardless of who his opponent is.