ImJustBayuum said:
HappySqurriel said:
ImJustBayuum said: Obama is not going to lose 2012, the gop lineup is quite weak imo. |
While I'm probably sounding like a broken record, I think Obama's chances of re-election are entirely dependent on the state of the economy ...
If the unemployment rate falls below 8%, inflation remains under control, and there is no shock to the economy Obama will (easily) win re-election. On the other hand, if unemployment increases significantly, people start feeling the effects of inflation, or there is a shock to the economy that leads to government intervention (especially a bailout) Obama would lose an election running against Paulie Shore.
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1. Significant increase to unemployment % All signs points to a slowly recovering economy in 2012, chances of a major increase is very low
2. People start feeling the effects of inflation People are already feeling the effects of inflation. Interest rates can always increase to reduce any significant inflationary effects.
3. Major shock to the economy that would lead to a bailout I agree with this. If for example the iranian sanctions saga worsens with the closure of the strait, then oil prices could may will hinder the the growth outlook for the US economy for 2012.
Obama's chances lie with the US economy in 2012, absolutely, But what could a republican replacement do different to obama's performance on the US economy. How will they curb very high inflation or reduce the unemployment or insulate the economy from a major shock..Voters will compare and analyse Obama and whoever the wins the GOP nomination. Right now, none of the current republican candidates, IMO, will bring any real change in responses, policies to the economy or US issues in general. Best to stick with certainty (obama).
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1) I don't know where you are getting your information from but I suspect it is from the mainstream media rather than financial news sources. There is a very high probability that Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain will default this year which will have cascading effects throughout the European economy and, being that the worldwide financial markets are connected and Europe as a region represents the United States largest trading partner, the United States.
Even if that doesn't happen, last years "Arab Spring" has created massive instability throughout the Middle East. There is a significant probability that this instability could translate into a series of events which results in the disruption of the production or distribution of oil causing significant increases. With how $120+ oil/barrel impacts people's disposable income and company’s bottom lines, any major price increase of oil will have a dramatic impact on unemployment.
Beyond that, many states are nearly bankrupt and they're probably going to need to increase taxes and cut spending to avoid default this year; which will have a significant impact on unemployment throughout the United States.
When you factor in everything, it is almost equal the likelihood that the economy will improve, stay the same or get worse with a small "advantage" to getting worse. Certainly, the mainstream media has been talking about how great this year will be, but they have been cheerleading for the administration and a recovery since mid 2009.
2) People do feel inflation but, with how much money is in circulation currently, it is possible that any "recovery" will be associated with much higher inflation. While the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates this would have a significant impact to any "recovery".
Now, whether any of the Republicans could do any better is largely irrelevant when it comes to the election results. The presidency will be won or lost based on a handful of swing voters in a handful of swing states; which happen to be some of the states with the highest unemployment rates and slowest economic growth rates. If the economy gets worse, these swing voters will likely vote against Obama regardless of who his opponent is.