HappySqurriel said:
If the unemployment rate falls below 8%, inflation remains under control, and there is no shock to the economy Obama will (easily) win re-election. On the other hand, if unemployment increases significantly, people start feeling the effects of inflation, or there is a shock to the economy that leads to government intervention (especially a bailout) Obama would lose an election running against Paulie Shore. |
1. Significant increase to unemployment %
All signs points to a slowly recovering economy in 2012, chances of a major increase is very low
2. People start feeling the effects of inflation
People are already feeling the effects of inflation. Interest rates can always increase to reduce any significant inflationary effects.
3. Major shock to the economy that would lead to a bailout
I agree with this. If for example the iranian sanctions saga worsens with the closure of the strait, then oil prices could may will hinder the the growth outlook for the US economy for 2012.
Obama's chances lie with the US economy in 2012, absolutely, But what could a republican replacement do different to obama's performance on the US economy. How will they curb very high inflation or reduce the unemployment or insulate the economy from a major shock..Voters will compare and analyse Obama and whoever the wins the GOP nomination. Right now, none of the current republican candidates, IMO, will bring any real change in responses, policies to the economy or US issues in general. Best to stick with certainty (obama).
