My post wasn't very well organized. I apologize for that, but you did say that Vita won't steal sales away from 360/Kinect, but you said that 3DS would. I'm trying not to overestimate the Vita as well, but it is hard to look at that system and not see a powerful system. Very little negative news has come out about it. It's a very inviting system which is something the PSP never had going for it.

Kinect was heavily discounted on Black Friday. As you can see from the post BF week, Kinect has dropped hard again. I know my Gamestop store was selling Kinect (with three games bundled) for $69 for the day. I consider any price cut, a cut. Whether short term retailer deals or not. There was a cut on all three systems this Black Friday. Wii = $99, PS3= $199, X360= $149. Gamestop even had an offer going that put 3DS down to $129 for Black Friday weekend.

I wasn't excluding Mario Kart 7. It has already released and I honestly don't think it can push 3DS hardware a year from now, on its own. If that is the strategy Nintendo uses for the system, then Vita will kill it. There will obviously be more games coming for the 3DS, but I wasn't including or excluding Mario Kart 7, because I'm looking at new titles coming for the systems. Not games that have already released. I'm not sure what you mean by history not being on my side. Pokemon sells systems. People buy Nintendo hardware (specifically handhelds) for Pokemon generation games (Blue/Red, Yellow, Gold/Silver, Pearl/Diamond, Black/White).

Microsoft advertised Modern Warfare 3 and Skyrim heavily for the Black Friday week. On top of the different models selling for at least $50 less than original sticker price.

Listen, I love the look of Vita, and everything about it. I want it to do well Vs. 3DS, but you're looking through rose tinted glasses like so many others.

If the 3DS suffered at $249 (and the casual market is far more bigger than the core, especially at the start) the Vita isn't going to have this plain sailing ride at $299 you seem to be predicting. It has great games but none of them are even near the level of HW selling like Mario Kart or even SM3DL. It's a core handheld and won't appeal to the casuals even remotely, and it's launching in the west at the worst time of year, having games will only help it so much, but launching a dedicated gaming handheld outside of christmas? really dumb move.

I doubt if the sales are low that Sony will cut the price within 6 months or xmas 2012, they didn't with PS3, and now it's firmly on the upswing. They've sufferd bad launches without radical cuts so don't expect the same knee jerk price cutting from Sony. So xmas 2012 we're going to have a $149 3DS that's getting a steady supply of games at this point, including a Pokemon I imagin that will do bloody incredible numbers, Vs a $299 non casual Vita that has no system seller (unless COD does do wonders, which is unlikely as it's going up against a console COD)

Vita, like 3DS will start doing well when it gets down to $199, and has a steady stream of SW people are going to want to buy the system for, but nothing they have now, even Uncharted and LBP is going to have people in droves wanting to buy on.

Taht said, I hope I'm wrong and it defies my expecations.

Edit - but in regards to Vita vs Kinect, couldn't be appealing more to different audiences.

Listen, I love the look of Vita, and everything about it. I want it to do well Vs. 3DS, but you're looking through rose tinted glasses like so many others.

If the 3DS suffered at $249 (and the casual market is far more bigger than the core, especially at the start) the Vita isn't going to have this plain sailing ride at $299 you seem to be predicting. It has great games but none of them are even near the level of HW selling like Mario Kart or even SM3DL. It's a core handheld and won't appeal to the casuals even remotely, and it's launching in the west at the worst time of year, having games will only help it so much, but launching a dedicated gaming handheld outside of christmas? really dumb move.

I doubt if the sales are low that Sony will cut the price within 6 months or xmas 2012, they didn't with PS3, and now it's firmly on the upswing. They've sufferd bad launches without radical cuts so don't expect the same knee jerk price cutting from Sony. So xmas 2012 we're going to have a $149 3DS that's getting a steady supply of games at this point, including a Pokemon I imagin that will do bloody incredible numbers, Vs a $299 non casual Vita that has no system seller (unless COD does do wonders, which is unlikely as it's going up against a console COD)

Vita, like 3DS will start doing well when it gets down to $199, and has a steady stream of SW people are going to want to buy the system for, but nothing they have now, even Uncharted and LBP is going to have people in droves wanting to buy on.

Taht said, I hope I'm wrong and it defies my expecations.

Edit - but in regards to Vita vs Kinect, couldn't be appealing more to different audiences.