This is a gradual process.
12 months from now the Wii will probably still be quite hot.
24 months from now the Wii will probably be seen as being just as obsolete as the PS2.

This timing is very approximate and either or both could move by as much as 12 months. That doesn't make it less inevitable.

It is no good talking about previous generations of console because that is not what we are talking about. The paragrim shift here is that we are talking (for the first time in our industry) about a new generation of television.

Obviously the Wii right now is a big bundle of fun. It was the toy of choice in Q4 2007. But a lot of this was down to it being a craze or fad. Like hoola hoops once were. This will not continue when it is generally seen as being out of date.

Over lifetime the PS3 and 360 will both sell more than Wii. This is because they will have 10 year product lives.

These quotes come to mind immediately after reading this thread:

"I know what the people want better than they know what they want" - Vincent McMahon
"Women will want what I tell them to want" - Homer Simpson.

Of course, this is from a thread started by a marketer, so I suppose that's entirely expected.

Bruceongames said: This is a gradual process. 12 months from now the Wii will probably still be quite hot. 24 months from now the Wii will probably be seen as being just as obsolete as the PS2. This timing is very approximate and either or both could move by as much as 12 months. That doesn't make it less inevitable. It is no good talking about previous generations of console because that is not what we are talking about. The paragrim shift here is that we are talking (for the first time in our industry) about a new generation of television. Obviously the Wii right now is a big bundle of fun. It was the toy of choice in Q4 2007. But a lot of this was down to it being a craze or fad. Like hoola hoops once were. This will not continue when it is generally seen as being out of date. Over lifetime the PS3 and 360 will both sell more than Wii. This is because they will have 10 year product lives.

 The big problem with your arguments is you are a gmer trying to view it as a gamer, Wii is a console that targets a much wider demographic than the PS2 or any other console.

 

You forget that most people don't care about HD, they buy a LCD or a plasma screen because it looks cool and they like it for its digital picture, now note digital is not the same as HD, digital includes SDTV, EDTV and HDTV, but most owners of HDTV only use it for SDTV and EDTV, not HD, they don't have HD signals, and don't care.

 

Most people who see the Wii games are impressed by its graphics, my dad was commenting how amazing Mario and Sonic looked and Mario and Sonic isn't even a top graphics game

Avinash_Tyagi said: Bruceongames said: This is a gradual process. 12 months from now the Wii will probably still be quite hot. 24 months from now the Wii will probably be seen as being just as obsolete as the PS2. This timing is very approximate and either or both could move by as much as 12 months. That doesn't make it less inevitable. It is no good talking about previous generations of console because that is not what we are talking about. The paragrim shift here is that we are talking (for the first time in our industry) about a new generation of television. Obviously the Wii right now is a big bundle of fun. It was the toy of choice in Q4 2007. But a lot of this was down to it being a craze or fad. Like hoola hoops once were. This will not continue when it is generally seen as being out of date. Over lifetime the PS3 and 360 will both sell more than Wii. This is because they will have 10 year product lives.  The big problem with your arguments is you are a gmer trying to view it as a gamer, Wii is a console that targets a much wider demographic than the PS2 or any other console.   You forget that most people don't care about HD, they buy a LCD or a plasma screen because it looks cool and they like it for its digital picture, now note digital is not the same as HD, digital includes SDTV, EDTV and HDTV, but most owners of HDTV only use it for SDTV and EDTV, not HD, they don't have HD signals, and don't care.   Most people who see the Wii games are impressed by its graphics, my dad was commenting how amazing Mario and Sonic looked and Mario and Sonic isn't even a top graphics game

I am not viewing this as a gamer. I am viewing it as an industry professional marketeer. Just because the Wii is the hot toy today does not mean that it will be the hot toy tomorrow. History has taught us this. (This is why there are so few 3rd party AAA titles for it). It has the added disadvantage of using display technology that is rapidly becoming obsolete. And being technically inferior to it's competitors. Wii is headed to being a $99 toy. Even then it will sell less than it did in Q4 2007. It's finest hour has passed.

Bruceongames said: "Obviously the Wii right now is a big bundle of fun. It was the toy of choice in Q4 2007. But a lot of this was down to it being a craze or fad. Like hoola hoops once were. This will not continue when it is generally seen as being out of date." "Over lifetime the PS3 and 360 will both sell more than Wii. This is because they will have 10 year product lives."

Technically, the above is true, and Disco will of course live forever. But the most perplexing part of this fad, which has gone on for some 12 months now, is, well, see previous. 12 months. Of being called a fad. Which gives me less of a "Flock of Seagulls" or "Lance Armstrong trend whore bracelet" fad, but quite literarily, a hoola-hoop fad which was something new and different that didn't even hit it's peak for 3 years. Weird choice of compairson. Definately seems like someone snapping their fingers and saying "Now! Now it will stop! Now!". May happen, may not. I won't make my predictions till I get at least half of Pachters salary.

Although the second line, you're repeating verbatim marketing bullshit, which, judging by your title and blogging journal, is fair, but still midly irritating. I can refrain from linking everything with the CICA handbook. Can you give me an answer that has substance and not a tagline to be said in interviews? Ps3 with it's limited space and apparently new massive installs will have 10 years of constantly making new SKU's? Microsoft will find that their goal of direct TV is accomplished, but will be outclassed by other products that aren't seen as a homophobe center? Games will be released (Go Dreamcast!). What?

Bruceongames said: Avinash_Tyagi said: Bruceongames said: This is a gradual process. 12 months from now the Wii will probably still be quite hot. 24 months from now the Wii will probably be seen as being just as obsolete as the PS2. This timing is very approximate and either or both could move by as much as 12 months. That doesn't make it less inevitable. It is no good talking about previous generations of console because that is not what we are talking about. The paragrim shift here is that we are talking (for the first time in our industry) about a new generation of television. Obviously the Wii right now is a big bundle of fun. It was the toy of choice in Q4 2007. But a lot of this was down to it being a craze or fad. Like hoola hoops once were. This will not continue when it is generally seen as being out of date. Over lifetime the PS3 and 360 will both sell more than Wii. This is because they will have 10 year product lives.  The big problem with your arguments is you are a gmer trying to view it as a gamer, Wii is a console that targets a much wider demographic than the PS2 or any other console.   You forget that most people don't care about HD, they buy a LCD or a plasma screen because it looks cool and they like it for its digital picture, now note digital is not the same as HD, digital includes SDTV, EDTV and HDTV, but most owners of HDTV only use it for SDTV and EDTV, not HD, they don't have HD signals, and don't care.   Most people who see the Wii games are impressed by its graphics, my dad was commenting how amazing Mario and Sonic looked and Mario and Sonic isn't even a top graphics game   I am not viewing this as a gamer. I am viewing it as an industry professional marketeer. Just because the Wii is the hot toy today does not mean that it will be the hot toy tomorrow. History has taught us this. (This is why there are so few 3rd party AAA titles for it). It has the added disadvantage of using display technology that is rapidly becoming obsolete. And being technically inferior to it's competitors. Wii is headed to being a $99 toy. Even then it will sell less than it did in Q4 2007. It's finest hour has passed.

What defines a AAA third party game?  Not reviews, sorry, reviews are opinions, sales of third parties show strong support.

 

Again history has shown that the popular console gains in sales not drops, history has shwon that even an obsolete console can and has won over it competitors, sorry but your knowledge of history is woefully limited, either that or you are intentionally cherry picking facts in order to support your flawed arguments

Hey Bruce,

thanks for letting me know about the quality on your blog so I can actively avoid getting near it in the future. Reason being: Your reasoning is awful and so 2006.

So, welcome to vgchartz!

Faxanadu said: Hey Bruce, thanks for letting me know about the quality on your blog so I can actively avoid getting near it in the future. Reason being: Your reasoning is awful and so 2006. So, welcome to vgchartz!

With that attitude I don't want you reading my blog. By the time you get to say 16 years old you may appreciate it better.

Bruceongames said: Faxanadu said: Hey Bruce, thanks for letting me know about the quality on your blog so I can actively avoid getting near it in the future. Reason being: Your reasoning is awful and so 2006. So, welcome to vgchartz!   With that attitude I don't want you reading my blog. By the time you get to say 16 years old you may appreciate it better.

Too funny man. Seems like you are quick with personal insults and trying to start a pissing contest. Really nice introduction.

Anyways, pleasure as well to meet you.

Faxanadu said: Bruceongames said: Faxanadu said: Hey Bruce, thanks for letting me know about the quality on your blog so I can actively avoid getting near it in the future. Reason being: Your reasoning is awful and so 2006. So, welcome to vgchartz!   With that attitude I don't want you reading my blog. By the time you get to say 16 years old you may appreciate it better. Too funny man. Seems like you are quick with personal insults and trying to start a pissing contest. Really nice introduction. Anyways, pleasure as well to meet you.

You started it.