cds were adopted due to no rewinding and instant skipping to a song, not because of the sound quality increase

dvds were adopted due to no rewinding, instant skipping to scenes, commentary tracks, and extra features (deleted scenes, alt endings, etc), not because of the video/sound quality increase


similiarly, consumers adopted the INFERIOR sound quality of mp3s over cds due to the functionality benefits of mp3s over cds

so consumers will accept LESSER quality if better features


notice sacds, dvd-audio haven't caught on because all they do is increase quality while giving no huge benefits to the consumers

and hddvd/bluray are similiar and thus won't catch on until basically even pricing with dvd players (ie

New girlfriend/wife perhaps? Better graphics than the old one?

Console loyalty does exist to a small segment of the gaming market, people will buy a particular console because they enjoyed the previous console and have faith in the brand. These gamers tend to be "core" gamers who are also very likely to be early adopters. I could be wrong but I suspect that brand loyalty has already played out, and most of the people who will always buy a Microsoft/Nintendo/Sony console have bought the XBox 360/Wii/PS3.

The rest of the market is heavily motivated by price, size and quality of game library, and the popularity of the system as a whole. They may own a PS2 but they're not waiting for the PS3, they will upgrade when the PS2's game library is too small to interest them and another system is affordable and has enough "high quality" games that interest them; in many cases "high quality" would not be defined in the same way core gamers would expect, it is often measured in third rate licences.

For most of these gamers the PS3 and XBox 360 fail on price alone; if Sony and Microsoft can maintain (or more importantly increase) the level of third party support they're receiving while preventing the Wii from increasing its third party support there is a chance for a comeback; if sales continue through 2008 as they have been this simply won't happen because third parties will favour the system with the larger userbase and less expensive development costs.

  Wow, too much to read.  I so far have only read the first page.  But I did want to comment on some things you say that seem very flawed.  One thing, I'm curious about where your "ordinary people" come from, or how you know the majority of the populace that you can claim such a thing that is unmeasurable (unlike the very real numbers we can get from ebay prices and shop inventory).  Of the people I know, they are in general more interested in Wii.  But then, I can't speak for all ordinary everyday people like you apparently can.

    My ignorance on production may be the reason I don't understand the next part, but please do educate me then.  How can consoles manufactured in the future be released now, and so in the future when they are actually manufactured they can't be shipped?  I thought consoles manufactured are shipped immediately.  Or do they actually always hold a months worth of stock in reserve and Nintendo will now not ship any made in January to fill up that stock again?

   I still will not believe the old arguement "Graphics do not matter the most to people right now (including HD owners), but they will in a year or two!  I promise!".  No matter how many times people say it.

   Higher graphic power is not the only thing that determines a new generation.  That idea is a pet peeve of mine.  In fact, total technical power is not what determines what a newer "generation" is either.  Look up the definition, I've posted it before.  Wii is a current gen console, whatever you think of it's graphical abilities.  It is a new system, with new features and abilities.

    I also disagree on the idea Wii will make an upgrade before the next normal generational leap.  There is no reason for the best selling console to do so.  It'd be impractical.  And I've never gotten the impression Nintendo loves to upgrade their hardware often like you say.  There has been one Wii.  And there have been several different SKUs for each PS3 and Xbox 360.  It's not Nintendo that likes to do constant upgrades to hardware.

A year ago, I agreed with you on the thought that many more people would have two consoles this gen than previous ones, but I've come to believe I was wrong. Is there some evidence you can use to back that up? Because I've always been curious about that point.

You seem to have a very bias view. You base the populaces views on your own personal preferences. I find you view that PS2 owners are only looking to upgrade to a PS3, rather than to whatever current gen console that appeals to them. That's a pretty faulty view.

Hehe, and again, we also disagree on what a "proper" gaming console is. This gen the only "proper" gaming console is the Wii. It's the only one focused on games, and not being multimedia.

Guys, i'd let Bruce be.

He's just made a common mistake many people who haven't had a "classical" training in this kind of stuff do. They focus too much on what they believe will happen and not what the data shows will happen.

They don't come in with a good understanding of the "common" person because they haven't done the research, form an opinion and then look for anything that supports their opinion, shutting out all other data.

While the real way to do it, is to just gather all data analyze and extrapolate.

His thinking that most people will have two consoles is proof enough for that.  Most people don't even buy a game a month, and he expects a majority of people are going to spend an extra few hundred on another system.

 This is the part that scares me Kasz216.  ;)       If that's really a true statement he said.

He used to work for some people in the industry. So of course he has those people reading it, or atleast telling him that they are reading it. Whether they actually take him seriously or not who can say.

Either way, they arn't going to take him more seriously then the people who actually do the research. Not if they are actually "top" executives.

I mean i have friends who are millionares. I could make an investment blog have them read it and claim that "Millionaires read my blog daily."

That doesn't mean they are actually going to take me up on my posting.

   Where is the Wii Bingo board when you need it? Wii is a fad.  10 year PS3 life span.  Graphics will matter more to gamers eventually....

   I do not believe in the 10 year product lives of the PS3 and Xbox 360.  For one, you'll need to be the market leader to be able to do the 10 year life and break from the 5 year average it's been for decades. 

     And on top of that, in about 4 years, when Wii2 comes out, why do you believe people will THEN want 'outdated' equipment in the PS3 and Xbox 360.  Because, as you believe, 'outdated' equipment does not have a chance.

Thanks Rol 8)