I agree with your first point, the numbers can't really be compared with that kind of time gap in between.  I really wish Sony and MS would release some concrete shipment numbers, hopefully in January.  But you're second point is completely wrong.  Not "almost every user" has at least 2 Move controllers.  Quite a few have just one, which is why ioi doesn't just divide shipment number by 2 to determine install base.  And remember, these shipment numbers are for Move controllers only, not PS Eyes or Nav controllers (which we have no clue what the shipment numbers are for them.)

But people owning 3 or 4 bring it into parity, I'd say on average 2 is more likely than anywhere in the 1 rnage, especially as this has been adopted by the core thus willing to spend more one extra controllers.

MS have shipped way more than 10 mill obviously, I spoke to BenV and he says around 65% of 360's he's sold throughout the year were Kinect bundles. I'd estimate shipments end of Q3 to be in the 12.5/13M range easily. MS will announce Kinect sales after xmas for sure, they've been quiet perhaps because yes, sales have slowed down a lot, but also because they want this 10 mill figure engrained in peoples heads, so when they come out the media will say

'Kinect jumped from 10 mill to 22 mill over the holidays' seems more impressive.

If 2 was the average, than ioi would simple cut sold numbers in half to get the install base.  I believe he said the average was more like 1.5.  On a personal level, I'm the biggest Move gamer I know, yet I only own 2 Move controllers.  It really isn't necessary to own more.  Like the numbers, show quite a few  think owning more than 1 is uneccesary when you can take turns with it. 

And was that 22 million just a number you wrote down real quick, or do you really think that Kinect will ship another 9-10 million in Q4?

Yeah I do (8 - 10) going hand in hand with it being the X360's biggest ever xmas (at least in the U.S where Kinect actually sells) but the 22 was random, I expect around 20 though.

Back in March when they shipped 7 - 8 mill, we had an install base of 4 mill, on 6.5 mill sell through. so 1.5 perhaps is a good guesstimate. I imagin now it's 5 mill install bass, 8 mill sell through and 9 mill shipped.

Although I agree with this, don't forget that Sony didn't make money with the userbase, they made money with the sold Move units, which stand at 9 million now. No matter how big the userbase is, 9 million units were sold in the Sony business books.

This is a bad article since it's comparing a device of which you will just get one of to a device which you will get multiple devices, it's like comparing Apples to Oranges.

I've seen so many different definitions now of what is considered a "unit" of Move I don't know which to use. Was there ever an official statement from Sony on this?

Some sites say it's any Wand and/or Wand/Eye pack, others that it's basically anything Move related (such as the sub-controller) and others just Wand/Eye packs. I'm confused with too much choice.

kinect its only hype,i do have move kinect and wii,the all time calibration for kinect is boring tedius,there are no precision and for work needs space,if you are playng and someone passes in front of you there goes calibration,move its great no need for lots of space great response a litle calibration but is fast and you can also play hardcore games with it,and now wii thas realy fun easy to pick up and its par with move when use motion plus.

Move Controllers, including the ones sold in the starter packs with eyetoy ect, but Nav and Eyetoy don't count towards shipments.

Fixed.