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Forums - Sales Discussion - I Believe Xbox 360 Will Be The #1 Selling Current Gen Console WW in 2012 - Updated April PS3 Lead 842K

 

What do you believe in?

yes X-box will sell the most 89 22.82%
 
nope PS3 will get it 234 60.00%
 
idk it will be close 37 9.49%
 
Wii will win both 2011 and 12 30 7.69%
 
Total:390
UnknownFact on 26 November 2011










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binary solo on 26 November 2011
XanderZane said:
binary solo said:
Well it has a chance of being number 1 in 2011. I think you may be right. But I disagree on one point: I think Sony will drop PS3 by another $50 next year, i.e. it will have a $199 sku in 2012.

But that will probably be irrelevant as 360 eats up the USA. I get the impression that early Wii adopters are going to the 360 in their droves in the USA and Kinect is the reason why.


I doubt they will do that immediately. Maybe at the end of the year, but I'm pretty sure Microsoft will drop all their SKU $50 by early Spring. They should have done this 2 days ago. Not sure what the hell they are thinking,. They rely to much on retailers and 3rd Party to bail them out instead od doing the work themselves.

Well of course Sony won't drop PS3 by another $50 until Q4 2012. But Q4 is when it really matters. Fact is Sony have dropped the price of the PS3 on average $75 per year (US market). A $50 drop next year would actually be about $25 short of average. And if you take 2011 and 1012 in isolation (assuming a $50 cut in 2012) then it's $50 behind the average. But the rate of price cut naturally slows down as price gets closer to the absolute minimum.

MS should drop 360 in Q1 or Q2. I suspect they'll do it about the same time as they launched 360s. Seems like E3 is their thing.



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FinalEvangelion on 27 November 2011

MS's difficulty to sell the console in Japan and Mainland Europe has much less to do with the fact that it's American and more to do with how much it promotes the "America, Fuck Yeah!!" image with the line up of games, the fan base it appeals to, the design of the original Xbox and controller, and even the name of the console ("Box" is generally not something very sexy in design).



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mundus6 on 27 November 2011
pezus said:
XanderZane said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
BHR....read this..

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/121/1212831p1.html#disqus_thread

This is why the 360 will not outsell the PS3. If the PS3 had launched with the 360 without the years head start the PS3 would be ahead of the 360 by over 10 million consoles. You can see by the PS3's advances that they have Microsofts number worldwide.


The xbox 360 would have still outsold the PS3 for the first year and half because no one would want to pay $600 for a PS3 for the first 2 years it was on the market. The main reason for the PS3 advance in sales was do to the price cut and release of the PS3 Slim. If Sony never did those two thing, it would have never caught the Xbox 360. Keep the PS3 price aqt $600 and the XBox 360 at $400 for 6 straight years and tell me who would be ahead right now? lol!! Once the price of the PS3 got to be reasonable, all the Japanese gamers finally decided to buy it. There are more PS3 fans in Europe & Japan then XBox 360 fans. That's really the difference in sales. These foreign country rarely embrace American systems. If America did the same to the PS3, what Japan does to the XBox 360, the PS3 would never win.

PS3 was never $600 in Europe and Japan though...It has always been way more expensive than the 360 there and yet it outsells it easily.

What are you basing this off: "These foreign country rarely embrace American systems. " ?

American systems? You mean only the Xbox? Europe and Japan have embraced lots and lots of American products if that's what you mean...


No it was $800 (in Sweden) and was still over $500 in 2008 when it was considered "cheap" to buy it. Still it outsold the 360, free online and a blu-ray player got a lot with that i think, since the games have always sold worse even though the console sold better for some reason.



reviniente on 27 November 2011
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:
I don't think it will happen for a few reasons. For one, next year sales for all the consoles will be dropping with the release of the Wii U, as well as announcements of new systems at E3 2012. Second, the 360 already has a $199 SKU. Yes, a drop of the 250GB SKU to $199 will give it a nice boost, but not like the boost it would give it if there were no $199 SKU already. Third, I see Sony most likely dropping the PS3 to $199 next year around the launch of the Wii U to help deter shoppers from it. And finally, while 360 has Halo 4 next year, 343 has yet to prove themselves at making a great Halo game, so we will have to see how well that goes. Plus, the PS3 has plenty of exclusives coming in 2012, some of which will be quite big. Sorcery, The Guardian, Twisted Metal, Sly Cooper 4, Final Fantasy Versus 13, and GOW4 (rumored). Of course, I'm sure Sony will have some other games to announce, as well.

So, I see the PS3 having a really good shot at taking 2012.

You forgot Starhawk. And really, Sorcery? Twisted Metal? Sly Cooper? Did you see what manner of exclusives the PS3 had this year and how they sold? Yet you expect this crap to move systems. Hmm... I think SON¥ has dealt it strongest hand already. BTW, that FFvsXIII entry? Don't hold your breath.

I said some would be quite big, not ALL.  I expect Twisted Metal to be a decent launch, which should push a few extra sales of HW.  Nothing major, of course.  Sony still has some cards to show.  They have the drop to $199, which will most likely happen next year.  And regardless of what you think of certain exclusives, it's always better to have some releasing every couple months or so, as opposed to having few to none releasing.  It's one of the reasons Sony was able to gain a 1.5 million lead over the 360 before the holidays even hit this year.  As far as FFV13 goes, I have full confidence it will release next year.  At least I do after the announcement that the production team is finally all back and working on it full time, instead of helping other teams (who are obviously lacking) finish their projects.

That PS3 at $199 is really a leap of faith. Have you seen SON¥'s financials? They are in no position to make another price cut. Hell, they might not even need it. Being a PS3 fan is very different from being a SON¥ official; one thing is what you would like to do and quite another is, what you should do. From a corporate stand point, being solvent is far more important than trying to catch up to second place in sales. They have a responsability to procure their shareholders' interest, not their fanbase's ego.



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 27 November 2011

well i'm sure i've posted in here before and now looking at things more closely it's an even bet. i favored MS in the begging, but game wise Sony has much more to offer, but in the americas that doesn't mean much.

i count about 11 exclusives and another 6 unannounced.



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S.T.A.G.E. on 27 November 2011
XanderZane said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
XanderZane said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
BHR....read this..

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/121/1212831p1.html#disqus_thread

This is why the 360 will not outsell the PS3. If the PS3 had launched with the 360 without the years head start the PS3 would be ahead of the 360 by over 10 million consoles. You can see by the PS3's advances that they have Microsofts number worldwide.


The xbox 360 would have still outsold the PS3 for the first year and half because no would wanted to pay $600 for a PS3 the first 2 years it was on the market. The main reason for the PS3 advance was do to the price cut and release of the PS3 Slim. If Sony never did those two thing, it would have neven caught the Xbox 360. Keep the PS3 price aqt $600 and the XBox 360 at $400 for 6 straight years and tell me who would be ahead right now? lol!! One the price of the PS3 got to be reasonable, all the Japanese gamers finally decided to buy it. There are more PS3 fans in Europe & Japan then XBox 360 fans. That's really the difference in sales. These foreign country rarely embrace American systems. If America did to the PS3, what Japan does to the XBox 360, the PS3 would never win.


I hate to burst your bubble but year for year the PS3 outsold the 360 when looking at the sales for their respsective first years. They've had more growth every year for that matter. Subtract that extra year Microsoft had an Sony would be ahead by around 10 million consoles. Sony is only making up for the lost time....not the timing of sales.

They had more growth after the 2nd year, not the first 2 years. Whatever the case, the PS3 had to play catch this whole generation, which isn't a good thing. It's not going to catch the Wii unless it stays on the market as long as the PS2 does. If the NextBox launches in 2012 all that growth won't even matter. The Next-Gen will have started and Sony will probably be playing catch up once again. Pretty much the same thing that happened with the Genesis and SNES.


Yes, but you're ignoring the fact which drives the PS3's sales. Microsoft cornered its market by trying to make the 360 as close to Sony's market as possible to segment their market whilst creating a bad image that they make bad quality consoles by rushing their console out to the public before its time. It's smart yet stupid planning and not exactly Sonys fault. Even with a $600 Blu Ray they still managed to outsell Microsofts first year and continue to outsell them every year. They will outsell the 360 this gen, and Microsoft will not be given the benefit of the doubt to the consumer without the consumer getting a look at Sonys offerings side by side next gen if you've been reading up on Sonys plans for next gen. 



Alby_da_Wolf on 27 November 2011

The only sure thing is that XB360 will win in America at least until next gen, and it will probably win there against the rivals of its same gen for its whole life. Winning WW too won't be so easy.



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thismeintiel on 28 November 2011
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:

I said some would be quite big, not ALL.  I expect Twisted Metal to be a decent launch, which should push a few extra sales of HW.  Nothing major, of course.  Sony still has some cards to show.  They have the drop to $199, which will most likely happen next year.  And regardless of what you think of certain exclusives, it's always better to have some releasing every couple months or so, as opposed to having few to none releasing.  It's one of the reasons Sony was able to gain a 1.5 million lead over the 360 before the holidays even hit this year.  As far as FFV13 goes, I have full confidence it will release next year.  At least I do after the announcement that the production team is finally all back and working on it full time, instead of helping other teams (who are obviously lacking) finish their projects.

That PS3 at $199 is really a leap of faith. Have you seen SON¥'s financials? They are in no position to make another price cut. Hell, they might not even need it. Being a PS3 fan is very different from being a SON¥ official; one thing is what you would like to do and quite another is, what you should do. From a corporate stand point, being solvent is far more important than trying to catch up to second place in sales. They have a responsability to procure their shareholders' interest, not their fanbase's ego.

We've heard these arguments time and time again when Sony has been in the red, yet Sony keeps cutting the price of the PS3.  They will continue to do it, still.  I'm not saying a $199 PS3 is a 100% definate next year, but I do think it is extremely likely they will do so.  Especially, to keep the momentum of the PS3 going, as well as compete against the Wii U til the PS4 launches.



 

reviniente on 28 November 2011
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:

I said some would be quite big, not ALL.  I expect Twisted Metal to be a decent launch, which should push a few extra sales of HW.  Nothing major, of course.  Sony still has some cards to show.  They have the drop to $199, which will most likely happen next year.  And regardless of what you think of certain exclusives, it's always better to have some releasing every couple months or so, as opposed to having few to none releasing.  It's one of the reasons Sony was able to gain a 1.5 million lead over the 360 before the holidays even hit this year.  As far as FFV13 goes, I have full confidence it will release next year.  At least I do after the announcement that the production team is finally all back and working on it full time, instead of helping other teams (who are obviously lacking) finish their projects.

That PS3 at $199 is really a leap of faith. Have you seen SON¥'s financials? They are in no position to make another price cut. Hell, they might not even need it. Being a PS3 fan is very different from being a SON¥ official; one thing is what you would like to do and quite another is, what you should do. From a corporate stand point, being solvent is far more important than trying to catch up to second place in sales. They have a responsability to procure their shareholders' interest, not their fanbase's ego.

We've heard these arguments time and time again when Sony has been in the red, yet Sony keeps cutting the price of the PS3.  They will continue to do it, still.  I'm not saying a $199 PS3 is a 100% definate next year, but I do think it is extremely likely they will do so.  Especially, to keep the momentum of the PS3 going, as well as compete against the Wii U til the PS4 launches.

Nevermind the Wii U; they still have to see how things will play out for the PSVita. Then we can start talking about pricecuts. I don't think SON¥ wants a repeat of the DS/PSP scenario with their new handheld.