here's an opinion--blu ray could very well do well in the states, and other rich nations. but in countries like china it could very well be a non-factor. i'm a little behind in the knowledge of those markets, but the other day i saw a DVD-9 (whatever the name is for the double layer DVD disk) disk, and my guess is that that has beginning to take over DVD disks.

in some ways, DVD-9 to blu-ray feels kind of like VCD to LCD. i don't think most productions in china are high-def yet, so there's little point in moving to blu-ray or HD-DVD.

then again, china of 10 years ago is way different the china of today. bring down costs has pretty much become a forte for chinese manufacturers, blu-ray or HD-DVD. so many mass market blu-ray (including pirated blu-rays--crucial to the success of blu-ray disks, i think!) might really be just around the corner.

Consumers lost this whole generation because it started with two formats.  People who have HD DVD will lose the investment they made if and when blu-ray takes over.

The studios and the manufacturers deserve to have none of them win this generation.

Long live digital distribution.  Format is no issue in that world!

If you're actually planning on investing in an HD format any time in the next five years, you've already lost as a consumer. HD-DVD is in the best interest of everyone really as this continued competition is the only way we'll ever see affordability of either format anytime soon.

Also, with firms already priming other more advanced formats to take the stage how long do you honestly think an investment in either will last before needing to invest in a new format?

QFT. This is the most accurate thing anyone has said on this thread. The death of HD-DVD will have a positive effect on the market, and Blu-Ray will not only still have to compete with DVD, it will have to compete with itself. Manufacturers of Blu-Ray players and media are still going to have to try and undercut each other on price.

BD will continue to get in cheaper just as DVD did, even though it never had any competition (excepting VHS).

I think there are other things they could do that would be far more effective.

They have already lost every chance at exclusivity at the high end.

So, what they should do, is push more and more for HD DVD being the norm at the low end. How they do this is the big problem, as subsidizing players forever is a bad deal. But they could make more attractive licensing deals to other cheaper manufacturers. If they won't just license the technology to less reputable manufacturers (for fear of loss of control over DRM), they should produce the most inexpensive drives they possibly can and have other cheap manufacturers build the players around them - and I mean cheap. Most people I know have cheap DVD players from nameless brands - they're not of the highest quality, but some are actually starting to support progressive output and stuff. Lots of people would never consider a Sony, a Philips, a Samsung, a Toshiba or an LG; not when there's cheap, more featureful players for less than half the price. I know HD has been about the high end, but whining the high end is only half the war.

The same way, they may have lost the big studios, but they should really go after all the little ones. I'm not bringing up porn again. But do go after indies; go after european cinema, south-american, asian, whatever. Offer them licensing deals they can't refuse. Make sure that some movies can't be played by a Blu-ray only player.

And then, on the high end, they should themselves push for dual format players. That's tough to swallow, I know. But push for them to be almost as cheap as Blu-ray players. Make sure those willing to pay a little more can play your discs too. Make sure only those mindless followers of Sony or Bluray, won't own both. 

If you create a market where most people has access to both formats, the best format (in terms of engineering, not high-tech: engineering is about compromises, namely cost compromises, and IMHO, HD DVD is better engineering) will make quite a dent. Maybe some movies will take advantage of Blu-ray's higher bit rate, and maybe higher sizes (per layer, at least); but most movies won't. The few big studios may ally against you; the many little ones have no advantage in that. And consumer confusion is nothing if everyone is on dual format; it's the same box shape, it's HD, it works, that's plenty enough. Fanboys live in the internet, not at retail.

Dont fool yourself .Its because you hate Sony with a passion and thats all .No amount of rationalization will change that .

A constructive and productive contribution as always.

Why do you have to bash anything and everything not related to nintendo? If nintendo made blu-ray you'd be defending it like a monkey. Now you hate it, and want it to die. You are the most biased poster on the site.