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Forums - Sales - Some predictions...PS3, 360, Wii...End of 2007 Sales...respectivly

HappySqurriel on 18 April 2007
Fractal of Time said:

I got some predictions also for a few years a head.

End of 2007

Wii will win this year. It's cheap, affordable and something new. Xbox 360 is suffering big competion from Wii and PS3. But with good third party support, Halo 3 and Elite 360. Home & 1st Party will do for PS3. Xbox 360 & PS3 will sell equel units in 2007.

Wii 18m (15m)
360 15m (5,5m)
PS3 8m (5,5m)

End of 2008

They year with the price-cuts all consoles will have benefits from it. Wii is still market leader. A small price-cut will do or build-in dvd-player for $249.  Xbox 360 prices drop to: $229 $329 $409. PS3 will get rumble 2.0 and a price-cut it drops to $499. Elite 160GB PS3 @ $599. Those price-cuts are only for North America. EU will follow 6 months later.

Wii 34m (16m)
360 22m (7m)
PS3 15m (7m)

End of 2009

Wii sales dropping a little, because  it's getting real competition with the Core version. Blu-ray acceptence gives PS3 slightly win, although Xbox 360 has very nice prices. And is coming with a Blu-ray addon. PS3 is still @ 3rd place, but is is still in the race.

Wii 48m (14m)
360 30m (8m)
PS3 24m (9m)

End of 2010

Wii needs a price this time and a pretty bigone. Grap a Wii for $179. Still good third party support, but still missing that GTA game. The audience of the wii is just different from 360/PS3. 360 cuts prices to $149 $249 $329. There is more Microsoft comes with Xbox 360 Platinum 200GB only $399. Xboxchip for full BC introduced. HD-DVD addon is dead @ this time. PS3 price-cuts $399 $499. Comeback 20GB with wifi cardreader @  $349 . Full BC is back with Emotionchip. HDD are getting bigger this means that HD movies will be available for download.

Wii 59m (11)
360 41m (11)
PS3 37m (13)

End of 2011

Wii drops his price to $149 they are still marketleader. Xbox 360 will also drop his prices $99 $199 $279 $349. PS3 will follow with $299 $349 $449. 360 is still having benefits of an early launch. Unfortunatly the advantge keeps gettting smaller and smaller.

Wii 67m (8)
360 50m (9)
PS3 49m (12)

End of 2012

Wii drops to $99 it's a better year than 2011. The core version is gone. $149 $229 (120GB) $299 (200GB). PS3 prices are $249 (20GB) $299 (60GB) $399 (160GB). Nintendo has huge profits. Microsoft has little profits. Sony has Break Even at this point. But has won the HD-DVD vs Blu-ray.

Wii 77 (10)
360 57 (7)
PS3 61 (12)

Microsoft and Nintendo wait for PS3 price-drops so they will have high profits. Total market will be 196m although it should be higher. Maybe bigger price-drops at once.


Honestly, I would be surprised if the Wii was not $199 by January 1st 2008, $149 by January 1st 2009, $129 by January 1st 2010 and $99 by January 1st 2011; historically speaking, Nintendo has been very good at reducing the price of their system to under $100 in about 4 to 5 years.



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Fractal of Time on 18 April 2007

1 jan 2008 Nintendo is doing fine. There is no need for a price cut. If they drop the price demand will be much higher. They need to make another machine or buy it, to keep track of the demand.  



TheSource on 18 April 2007

The graph I made in February is looking pretty accurate so far - it has 360 reaching 10 million in late April/week one of May and that should hold true.  It also showed Wii just over 7 million by the end of April (looks pretty likely) and PS3 at 3.75 million (probably about 250k here off here). 

By the end of the year, Wii will be well ahead of Xbox 360 if the graph holds up...

It also showed the following for Wii:

Wii - within 3 million of Xbox 360 by end of April (happened.)

Wii - within 1.5 million of Xbox 360 by the end of June (looking likely - alot depends on Golden Week/May)

Wii - within 500,000 of Xbox 360 by the end of August

Wii - Tie Xbox 360 around September 20.  However, this was before Halo 3 was announced.  The catchup and catch point was right around 12.5 million units.  I now believe Wii will catchup less than usual in September, pushing the catchup and tie date to mid October-early November.

Wii - 10 million sold (July)

Wii - 15 million sold (Some time in November)

LTD Wii Jan 1, 2008 - My Estimate: 16-20 million.  Graph says: 19 million

 

As for Xbox 360:

15 million - Dec 10- early January...

Loses lead worldwide to Wii: September-November timeframe, passed in the vicinity of 12.5 to 14 million units

Lead over PS3 shrinks to 6 million by the end of 2007, after peaking at various times, at 7.5-8 million ahead 

Likely will sell 2.5-3.5 million units in Q4 worldwide, with another huge month in September.

 

PS3 Notes:

My graph overestimated the European PS3 launch, but underestimated subsequent weekly sales...

Despite price, thanks largely due to Japan, PS3 will outsell Xbox 360 6-8 months a year I think.

PS3 (according to my graph) should reach 5 million sold in late July.

Worldwide sales in Q4 should be similar to 360 sales, though with no market accounting for the lion's share of those as 360 has (America).

PS3 can reach 9 million by the end of 2007 I think.  Anything under 7.5 million or over 10 million would be a huge shock to me...

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

voghan on 18 April 2007

I think the numbers for the PS3 are high.  I expect the sales numbers to stay around 160K per month in the US and 25K per week in Japan.  Europe is the toss up since we really can't see their numbers on a non-annual trend.  I don't see the PS3 hitting more than 8m in total sales this year.  The box needs a price drop and a miracle. 



http://www.voghan.com

KohlyKohl on 18 April 2007
CrazzyMan said:

all these predicts are worthless till E3 in July, or atleast square-enix party for ps3.

Wouldn`t you pay any money, just to play FFXIII, with how it looks now in trailer? What about Killzone2, if final game will be as good as e3 2k5 trailer? you won`t pay 600$ for such graphics? There are a lot of amazing games, like Lair, HS, NGS, Rathcetm Uncharted, LBP, MGS4.

 

 I personally would not pay $600+ for anything but a laptop and a car. I do not know anyone who is planning on even buying a ps3 and personally I can just go down to the local video game cafe and pay a few dollars to play the ps3.

 



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CrazzyMan on 18 April 2007

Then you are stupid.

You buy ps3 for atleast 5 years, 5 years = 60 month.

600$/60 month = 10$ month.

You get blu-ray player, free online, next gen games only for 10$/month. For my internet i pay more.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

ckmlb on 18 April 2007

Nintendo said Wii will be supply constrained for the next half a year...



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

FishyJoe on 18 April 2007
CrazzyMan said:

Then you are stupid.

You buy ps3 for atleast 5 years, 5 years = 60 month.

600$/60 month = 10$ month.

You get blu-ray player, free online, next gen games only for 10$/month. For my internet i pay more.


I was going to make a comment, but the statement speaks for itself... I don't know whether to laugh or cry.



NorthStar on 18 April 2007
HappySqurriel said:

I really don't understand your Wii estimates ...

Essentially you are saying that the Wii will sell the same number of units in the next 8 months that they have sold in the past 4 months in Europe and Japan. Now, unless you're implying that the supply can not be expanded I don't see how this is possible at all ...

really how could the Wii numbers increase they sell as fast as they hit shelves now? The most potential for increased sales is PS3 it has only a few great games right now and has sold well. With more games releasing and more shelf space this Chiristmas it will have the biggest surge. Wii can't surge its already in heavy flow sales will probly take a dip soon. The 360 is a bit light on must get games in coming months and most people that Halo 3 was a must buy for Already have the 360 for that game. Along with the fact that the 360 breaks down consistantly as opposed to PS3 that has had very few instances of breacking and the wii that really has only a little problem from what i hear (not enough to affect sales)

 



NorthStar on 18 April 2007
KohlyKohl said:
CrazzyMan said:

all these predicts are worthless till E3 in July, or atleast square-enix party for ps3.

Wouldn`t you pay any money, just to play FFXIII, with how it looks now in trailer? What about Killzone2, if final game will be as good as e3 2k5 trailer? you won`t pay 600$ for such graphics? There are a lot of amazing games, like Lair, HS, NGS, Rathcetm Uncharted, LBP, MGS4.

 

 I personally would not pay $600+ for anything but a laptop and a car. I do not know anyone who is planning on even buying a ps3 and personally I can just go down to the local video game cafe and pay a few dollars to play the ps3.

 


wow if $600 is what you spend for a car then i agree Do not buy a PS3, or a 360 or even a wii.....get a better car.