The graph I made in February is looking pretty accurate so far - it has 360 reaching 10 million in late April/week one of May and that should hold true. It also showed Wii just over 7 million by the end of April (looks pretty likely) and PS3 at 3.75 million (probably about 250k here off here).
By the end of the year, Wii will be well ahead of Xbox 360 if the graph holds up...
It also showed the following for Wii:
Wii - within 3 million of Xbox 360 by end of April (happened.)
Wii - within 1.5 million of Xbox 360 by the end of June (looking likely - alot depends on Golden Week/May)
Wii - within 500,000 of Xbox 360 by the end of August
Wii - Tie Xbox 360 around September 20. However, this was before Halo 3 was announced. The catchup and catch point was right around 12.5 million units. I now believe Wii will catchup less than usual in September, pushing the catchup and tie date to mid October-early November.
Wii - 10 million sold (July)
Wii - 15 million sold (Some time in November)
LTD Wii Jan 1, 2008 - My Estimate: 16-20 million. Graph says: 19 million
As for Xbox 360:
15 million - Dec 10- early January...
Loses lead worldwide to Wii: September-November timeframe, passed in the vicinity of 12.5 to 14 million units
Lead over PS3 shrinks to 6 million by the end of 2007, after peaking at various times, at 7.5-8 million ahead
Likely will sell 2.5-3.5 million units in Q4 worldwide, with another huge month in September.
PS3 Notes:
My graph overestimated the European PS3 launch, but underestimated subsequent weekly sales...
Despite price, thanks largely due to Japan, PS3 will outsell Xbox 360 6-8 months a year I think.
PS3 (according to my graph) should reach 5 million sold in late July.
Worldwide sales in Q4 should be similar to 360 sales, though with no market accounting for the lion's share of those as 360 has (America).
PS3 can reach 9 million by the end of 2007 I think. Anything under 7.5 million or over 10 million would be a huge shock to me...
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
