My Predictions for total consoles sold until Jan 1, 2008

Playstation 3: 

 Current: 3.21 million
End of 2007:  9.58 million

I did some calculations, and if the PS3 continues selling like it is now, and doubles its sales during the winter, then I predict the PS3 will have sold between 9.50 million - 11 million consoles.  I think at the current price tag this is attainable.

This is the breakdown that I got:

 America: 

Current: 1.42 million

Sales by the end of 2007:  3.85 million

America Total:  5.27 million

Europe/Others:

Current: 0.91million

Sales by the end of 2007:  1.27 million

Europe/Others Total:  2.18 Million

Japan:

Current: .88 million

Sales by the end of 2007:  1.20 million

Japan total:  2.08 million

Xbox 360:

Current: 9.74 million

End of 2007: 13 million

My predictions for the XBOX 360 are quite low.  The console has seen a drop in sales in recent months, but I'm predicting the xbox 360 fanbase to be anywhere between 13 million - 14.50 million by the end of 2007.

Breakdown:

America:

Current: 6.09 Million

End of 2007:  2.40 million

 Total: 8.49 Million

Europe/Others:

Current: 3.27 million

End of 2007: 0.75 million

Total:  4.02 million

Japan:

Current: 0.38 Million

End of 2007: 0.14 Million

Total:  0.52 Million

Wii

Current: 6.76 Million

End of 2007:  15.42 Million

The Wii has been selling like hotcakes.  This console really has some phonomonal sales.  I predecit that the Wii will have a fanbase between 15.00 million - 17.00 million by the end of 2007. 

Breakdown:

America:

Current: 2.64 Million

End of 2007:  4.50 Million

Total:  7.14 Million

Europe/Other:

Current: 1.96 Million

End of 2007:  2.00 Million

 Total: 3.96 Million

Japan:

Current: 2.16 Million

End of 2007:  2.16 Million

Total: 4.32Million

So there you have it guys.

I have done a bit of research on sales before coming up with this.  I honestly think the Wii will sell better in Japan and probably Europe too, but I'm leaving them at that because this console could go either way.

So by the End of 2007:

1.  Wii (15.42 Million)

2. 360 (13.00 Million)

3. PS3 (09.58 Million)

thoughts? discussions? your predictions? 

I think you've slightly under estimated PS3 an Wii in europe, once wii gets in stock it will sell incredibly fast maybe 5 million units, and since the PS3 is already at 900,000 and since sony unlike in japan and america(use to) face little competition here will probably reach about 3-3.5 million

Dude, first of all: 'Not to tease newcommers, but this has been posted like 5 times already, last time was about 5 days ago'.

Back on-topic: I think you got ur PS3 figures too high up... Cmon, is it really gonna sell through like it did the last 5 months till holiday 07, i (Opinion) think not; Why?! Because it was launched in Europe in March, which made it possible for PS3 to sell like 800k on 1 day, which makes the outcome of the prediction a bit high... Because it aint launchin any more in other territories, so it won't get that much of an impulse again. Ofcoure it has got some solid titles so it will sell like hotcakes in holiday 07 (So will all others, i think Wii the most and then X360 with Halo 3) But at least more then 2 times of what it normally does (Example: X360 sold like 2mil during Dec 06 America)

I think you over estimated ps3 in the US, you have it's US sales multiplayer as 3.71 and the Wii's 2.71 I don't see the potential for that kind of increase in comparison with the Wii. although its hard to say how much it will pick up between now and the end of the year especially with a possible price cut floating in the air(I don't think it will happen this year), but that seemed a bit high. I also think your 360 japan numbers are low, I think with Trusty Bell and especially Lost Odessey they'll see a bit of an uptick in sales, I'm thinking from now till year end they'll at least see 250,000-300,000 units sold maybe even more. According to your numbers it'll stay at 3,000-3,500 a week till year end, partuclarly around christmas you'll see the sales go up, and like a said especially with Lost Odsessy, that week alone should sell 40,000 units at the very least. As Blue Dragon scored 35,000 units in it's launch week, and 18,000 the week after. Even last year in the same period despite worse sales they managed selling 163,000 units in that time frame. So I'm sure it'll run much higher this year.

I really don't understand your Wii estimates ...

Essentially you are saying that the Wii will sell the same number of units in the next 8 months that they have sold in the past 4 months in Europe and Japan. Now, unless you're implying that the supply can not be expanded I don't see how this is possible at all ...

We are very hard crowd to please :D But I think that PS3 numbers in USA are to high and Europe/Japan are to low. 360 numbers seems right and Wii numbers are really to low but it all depends on Nintendo how much they can supply.

Wii will sell more because of these factors:

1) Big games, metroid/mario/super smash bros brawl/Resi umbrella corp. Chronicles/No more heroes/Batallion wars II.

2) Production has been ramped up to 1.4 mil.

3) Demand is still so high that it remains outsold...

Srry, double post.

I got some predictions also for a few years a head.

End of 2007

Wii will win this year. It's cheap, affordable and something new. Xbox 360 is suffering big competion from Wii and PS3. But with good third party support, Halo 3 and Elite 360. Home & 1st Party will do for PS3. Xbox 360 & PS3 will sell equel units in 2007.

Wii 18m (15m)
360 15m (5,5m)
PS3 8m (5,5m)

End of 2008

They year with the price-cuts all consoles will have benefits from it. Wii is still market leader. A small price-cut will do or build-in dvd-player for $249.  Xbox 360 prices drop to: $229 $329 $409. PS3 will get rumble 2.0 and a price-cut it drops to $499. Elite 160GB PS3 @ $599. Those price-cuts are only for North America. EU will follow 6 months later.

Wii 34m (16m)
360 22m (7m)
PS3 15m (7m)

End of 2009

Wii sales dropping a little, because  it's getting real competition with the Core version. Blu-ray acceptence gives PS3 slightly win, although Xbox 360 has very nice prices. And is coming with a Blu-ray addon. PS3 is still @ 3rd place, but is is still in the race.

Wii 48m (14m)
360 30m (8m)
PS3 24m (9m)

End of 2010

Wii needs a price this time and a pretty bigone. Grap a Wii for $179. Still good third party support, but still missing that GTA game. The audience of the wii is just different from 360/PS3. 360 cuts prices to $149 $249 $329. There is more Microsoft comes with Xbox 360 Platinum 200GB only $399. Xboxchip for full BC introduced. HD-DVD addon is dead @ this time. PS3 price-cuts $399 $499. Comeback 20GB with wifi cardreader @  $349 . Full BC is back with Emotionchip. HDD are getting bigger this means that HD movies will be available for download.

Wii 59m (11)
360 41m (11)
PS3 37m (13)

End of 2011

Wii drops his price to $149 they are still marketleader. Xbox 360 will also drop his prices $99 $199 $279 $349. PS3 will follow with $299 $349 $449. 360 is still having benefits of an early launch. Unfortunatly the advantge keeps gettting smaller and smaller.

Wii 67m (8)
360 50m (9)
PS3 49m (12)

End of 2012

Wii drops to $99 it's a better year than 2011. The core version is gone. $149 $229 (120GB) $299 (200GB). PS3 prices are $249 (20GB) $299 (60GB) $399 (160GB). Nintendo has huge profits. Microsoft has little profits. Sony has Break Even at this point. But has won the HD-DVD vs Blu-ray.

Wii 77 (10)
360 57 (7)
PS3 61 (12)

Microsoft and Nintendo wait for PS3 price-drops so they will have high profits. Total market will be 196m although it should be higher. Maybe bigger price-drops at once.

all these predicts are worthless till E3 in July, or atleast square-enix party for ps3.

Wouldn`t you pay any money, just to play FFXIII, with how it looks now in trailer? What about Killzone2, if final game will be as good as e3 2k5 trailer? you won`t pay 600$ for such graphics? There are a lot of amazing games, like Lair, HS, NGS, Rathcetm Uncharted, LBP, MGS4.