I got some predictions also for a few years a head.
End of 2007
Wii will win this year. It's cheap, affordable and something new. Xbox 360 is suffering big competion from Wii and PS3. But with good third party support, Halo 3 and Elite 360. Home & 1st Party will do for PS3. Xbox 360 & PS3 will sell equel units in 2007.
Wii 18m (15m)
360 15m (5,5m)
PS3 8m (5,5m)
End of 2008
They year with the price-cuts all consoles will have benefits from it. Wii is still market leader. A small price-cut will do or build-in dvd-player for $249. Xbox 360 prices drop to: $229 $329 $409. PS3 will get rumble 2.0 and a price-cut it drops to $499. Elite 160GB PS3 @ $599. Those price-cuts are only for North America. EU will follow 6 months later.
Wii 34m (16m)
360 22m (7m)
PS3 15m (7m)
End of 2009
Wii sales dropping a little, because it's getting real competition with the Core version. Blu-ray acceptence gives PS3 slightly win, although Xbox 360 has very nice prices. And is coming with a Blu-ray addon. PS3 is still @ 3rd place, but is is still in the race.
Wii 48m (14m)
360 30m (8m)
PS3 24m (9m)
End of 2010
Wii needs a price this time and a pretty bigone. Grap a Wii for $179. Still good third party support, but still missing that GTA game. The audience of the wii is just different from 360/PS3. 360 cuts prices to $149 $249 $329. There is more Microsoft comes with Xbox 360 Platinum 200GB only $399. Xboxchip for full BC introduced. HD-DVD addon is dead @ this time. PS3 price-cuts $399 $499. Comeback 20GB with wifi cardreader @ $349 . Full BC is back with Emotionchip. HDD are getting bigger this means that HD movies will be available for download.
Wii 59m (11)
360 41m (11)
PS3 37m (13)
End of 2011
Wii drops his price to $149 they are still marketleader. Xbox 360 will also drop his prices $99 $199 $279 $349. PS3 will follow with $299 $349 $449. 360 is still having benefits of an early launch. Unfortunatly the advantge keeps gettting smaller and smaller.
Wii 67m (8)
360 50m (9)
PS3 49m (12)
End of 2012
Wii drops to $99 it's a better year than 2011. The core version is gone. $149 $229 (120GB) $299 (200GB). PS3 prices are $249 (20GB) $299 (60GB) $399 (160GB). Nintendo has huge profits. Microsoft has little profits. Sony has Break Even at this point. But has won the HD-DVD vs Blu-ray.
Wii 77 (10)
360 57 (7)
PS3 61 (12)
Microsoft and Nintendo wait for PS3 price-drops so they will have high profits. Total market will be 196m although it should be higher. Maybe bigger price-drops at once.
