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Forums - Sales Discussion - Numbers That MS Needs To Pull To Tie The PS3 For 2011. And Why I Think It Is Now Impossible.

 

Will The 360 Be Able To Pull It Off?

The Kinect Will Rule The ... 220 27.92%
 
It Will Be Close, But The... 241 30.58%
 
No Way. The PS3 Will Be ... 270 34.26%
 
What Are You Talking Abou... 56 7.11%
 
Total:787
UnknownFact on 31 December 2011

Wii power is crazy. Even my aunt wants one O_O

Oh wait I'm off topic. Oh nevermind.

*points at Wii games topping this week*



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Sarah90 on 31 December 2011

People cant say 360 deals didnt make a huge difference. Or i wouldnt have bought 3 of them... but awesome for the hd bros :)



thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 

Get over yourself. It's nothing to do with paining me to admit PS3 has won, if it has congratz to people that said it would, Sony and the PS3 ... I'm just calling out your ridiculous assumption it was impossible. Just because it didn't happen didn't mean it was impossible like you claimed.

You seem like a bright guy, don't believe you're stupid enough to actually think it was impossible ...

I wrote why I thought it was impossible with the given circumstances at the time of the OP and it turned out to be.  Even with the massive holiday sales it had in the US (I'm sure they had great deals around the world, too) for Nov and Dec and having the US in its pocket (the largest market for the holidays), it still didn't pull it off.  Like I said, they definitely were able to decrease the gap by more than I thought (barring any adjustments), but that doesn't change my opinion that it was impossible.

Right ... and like kowen says, all they had to do was cut in Europe and it would have turned into possible, thus not impossible. I mean to say it's impossible is stupid.

there is a ton of stuff they could have done to make it not impossible, unless you think it was impossible for MS to get another 200k sold? I guess cutting $50 in mid december wouldn't have mustered that then?

Sure they could have got another 200K IF they cut the price.  Of course, that would have made the gap still ~100K in the PS3's favor. 

Anyway, the great holiday deals in the US more than made up for a price cut in Europe, a region PS3 already dominates anyway, even with the 360 already being cheaper there.  I would guess a $50 cut in all regions would have lead to those gift cards being ~$50, as opposed to the $100 ones the 360's been getting for 2 months.  This wold have lead to slightly higher sales in Europe, but slightly lower sales in the US, so pretty much evening out. 

Of course these are all IFs, which didn't happen, so there's really no point in arguing them.  The fact just remains that the 360 couldn't become the #1 console WW like MS was predicting it would from June to Oct.  But they do get due credit for being to drop the gap so low in these last 2 months.



 

thx1139 on 31 December 2011
kowenicki said:
thismeintiel said:
kowenicki said:
If it stays roughly as is then the PS3 has 'outsold' the 360 by 250k... or 1.7%

Market share 2011 (home consoles) will be:

PS3 34.9%
360 34.4%

Moral victory for 360... MASSIVE HOLIDAY DEALS.... :p

Fixed that for you. 

I will admit this year was a victory for the 360 because it was up ~5% in 2012, thus making it the best year for the 360.  Now it's your turn to admit is was a victory for the PS3 because it was up ~5%, thus making it the best year for the PS3, and it outsold every console (except 3DS, barring any adjustments). 

Not where it mattered, a price cut in Europe and this would have been a different result IMO. 

So who made the bigger investment from September through the end of the year. MS with the co-marketing deals or Sony with the $50 US price cut (I do believe this was worldwide).

Sony sold about 7.9 million PS3s September 1 through end of the year.  That is a cost of $400 million.  Of course they wouldnt have sold 7.9 million if they hadnt cut $50. How many fewer we do not know.  Not to mention the co-marketing deals they did with retailers although not at the same extent as MS did.

Or did MS with the aproximately 4.5 million that were sold in the USA in November and December with all of the co-marketing deals?



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Seece on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 

Get over yourself. It's nothing to do with paining me to admit PS3 has won, if it has congratz to people that said it would, Sony and the PS3 ... I'm just calling out your ridiculous assumption it was impossible. Just because it didn't happen didn't mean it was impossible like you claimed.

You seem like a bright guy, don't believe you're stupid enough to actually think it was impossible ...

I wrote why I thought it was impossible with the given circumstances at the time of the OP and it turned out to be.  Even with the massive holiday sales it had in the US (I'm sure they had great deals around the world, too) for Nov and Dec and having the US in its pocket (the largest market for the holidays), it still didn't pull it off.  Like I said, they definitely were able to decrease the gap by more than I thought (barring any adjustments), but that doesn't change my opinion that it was impossible.

Right ... and like kowen says, all they had to do was cut in Europe and it would have turned into possible, thus not impossible. I mean to say it's impossible is stupid.

there is a ton of stuff they could have done to make it not impossible, unless you think it was impossible for MS to get another 200k sold? I guess cutting $50 in mid december wouldn't have mustered that then?

Sure they could have got another 200K IF they cut the price.  Of course, that would have made the gap still ~100K in the PS3's favor. 

Anyway, the great holiday deals in the US more than made up for a price cut in Europe, a region PS3 already dominates anyway, even with the 360 already being cheaper there.  I would guess a $50 cut in all regions would have lead to those gift cards being ~$50, as opposed to the $100 ones the 360's been getting for 2 months.  This wold have lead to slightly higher sales in Europe, but slightly lower sales in the US, so pretty much evening out. 

Of course these are all IFs, which didn't happen, so there's really no point in arguing them.  The fact just remains that the 360 couldn't become the #1 console WW like MS was predicting it would from June to Oct.  But they do get due credit for being to drop the gap so low in these last 2 months.

Talk about finalised ...  it's still completely up in the air which console will take it.

And yeah, lots of if's you spouted there, and your final point was something I wasn't even debating, just your use of impossible. Which is still (and always will be ) wrong.



 

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thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 

Get over yourself. It's nothing to do with paining me to admit PS3 has won, if it has congratz to people that said it would, Sony and the PS3 ... I'm just calling out your ridiculous assumption it was impossible. Just because it didn't happen didn't mean it was impossible like you claimed.

You seem like a bright guy, don't believe you're stupid enough to actually think it was impossible ...

I wrote why I thought it was impossible with the given circumstances at the time of the OP and it turned out to be.  Even with the massive holiday sales it had in the US (I'm sure they had great deals around the world, too) for Nov and Dec and having the US in its pocket (the largest market for the holidays), it still didn't pull it off.  Like I said, they definitely were able to decrease the gap by more than I thought (barring any adjustments), but that doesn't change my opinion that it was impossible.

Right ... and like kowen says, all they had to do was cut in Europe and it would have turned into possible, thus not impossible. I mean to say it's impossible is stupid.

there is a ton of stuff they could have done to make it not impossible, unless you think it was impossible for MS to get another 200k sold? I guess cutting $50 in mid december wouldn't have mustered that then?

Sure they could have got another 200K IF they cut the price.  Of course, that would have made the gap still ~100K in the PS3's favor. 

Anyway, the great holiday deals in the US more than made up for a price cut in Europe, a region PS3 already dominates anyway, even with the 360 already being cheaper there.  I would guess a $50 cut in all regions would have lead to those gift cards being ~$50, as opposed to the $100 ones the 360's been getting for 2 months.  This wold have lead to slightly higher sales in Europe, but slightly lower sales in the US, so pretty much evening out. 

Of course these are all IFs, which didn't happen, so there's really no point in arguing them.  The fact just remains that the 360 couldn't become the #1 console WW like MS was predicting it would from June to Oct.  But they do get due credit for being to drop the gap so low in these last 2 months.

Talk about finalised ...  it's still completely up in the air which console will take it.

And yeah, lots of if's you spouted there, and your final point was something I wasn't even debating, just your use of impossible. Which is still (and always will be ) wrong.

Not really.  I think most people have accepted the PS3 took it.  The most the 360 can hope for next week is a tie, which would still have the PS3 up by ~230K. 

And its just your opinion concerning the word impossible.  It was my opinion, and still is, that it was impossible.  Maybe if MS had dropped the price of the 4GB, 250GB, and Kinect SKU's by $50 as soon as the PS3 had, it would have pulled it off.  Of course, it was apperent MS wasn't going to do that when I did the OP, so it wasn't going to happen.



 

greenmedic88 on 31 December 2011

It's a wash.

Anything under 500k is well within an acceptable margin of error for VGC estimates.

But since the whole point of this is to obsess over what the VGC numbers state at the end of the year, rather than their actual accuracy, it looks like the final numbers will show that the PS3 "won" in 2011.

I'm not sure where all this talk about "moral victories" or coulda, woulda, shoulda predictions are coming from had MS dropped price on their Kinect and 250GB SKUs by $50 or packaged each Xbox with a magical gaming leprechaun to spur more sales; the reality is it didn't happen. They offered the same holiday bundles they've been offering for years and along with the excellent Black Friday deals, these were the numbers that actually happened.

Predicting what can happen in the future is one thing, predicting what could have happened in the past however... is a waste of time for VGC forums.



Seece on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 

Get over yourself. It's nothing to do with paining me to admit PS3 has won, if it has congratz to people that said it would, Sony and the PS3 ... I'm just calling out your ridiculous assumption it was impossible. Just because it didn't happen didn't mean it was impossible like you claimed.

You seem like a bright guy, don't believe you're stupid enough to actually think it was impossible ...

I wrote why I thought it was impossible with the given circumstances at the time of the OP and it turned out to be.  Even with the massive holiday sales it had in the US (I'm sure they had great deals around the world, too) for Nov and Dec and having the US in its pocket (the largest market for the holidays), it still didn't pull it off.  Like I said, they definitely were able to decrease the gap by more than I thought (barring any adjustments), but that doesn't change my opinion that it was impossible.

Right ... and like kowen says, all they had to do was cut in Europe and it would have turned into possible, thus not impossible. I mean to say it's impossible is stupid.

there is a ton of stuff they could have done to make it not impossible, unless you think it was impossible for MS to get another 200k sold? I guess cutting $50 in mid december wouldn't have mustered that then?

Sure they could have got another 200K IF they cut the price.  Of course, that would have made the gap still ~100K in the PS3's favor. 

Anyway, the great holiday deals in the US more than made up for a price cut in Europe, a region PS3 already dominates anyway, even with the 360 already being cheaper there.  I would guess a $50 cut in all regions would have lead to those gift cards being ~$50, as opposed to the $100 ones the 360's been getting for 2 months.  This wold have lead to slightly higher sales in Europe, but slightly lower sales in the US, so pretty much evening out. 

Of course these are all IFs, which didn't happen, so there's really no point in arguing them.  The fact just remains that the 360 couldn't become the #1 console WW like MS was predicting it would from June to Oct.  But they do get due credit for being to drop the gap so low in these last 2 months.

Talk about finalised ...  it's still completely up in the air which console will take it.

And yeah, lots of if's you spouted there, and your final point was something I wasn't even debating, just your use of impossible. Which is still (and always will be ) wrong.

Not really.  I think most people have accepted the PS3 took it.  The most the 360 can hope for next week is a tie, which would still have the PS3 up by ~230K. 

And its just your opinion concerning the word impossible.  It was my opinion, and still is, that it was impossible.  Maybe if MS had dropped the price of the 4GB, 250GB, and Kinect SKU's by $50 as soon as the PS3 had, it would have pulled it off.  Of course, it was apperent MS wasn't going to do that when I did the OP, so it wasn't going to happen.

Yeah it's opinion, but then it can be someone's opinion that pigs fly. If you think Microsoft couldn't muster an extra 300k sales if they chopped $100 off in Europe and elsewhere it sells well, then I don't know what to tell you.

Again, it's not about accepting it's about waiting for the various amounts of information yet to come.



 

JimmyDanger on 31 December 2011

I think some of you don't understand the difference between improbable (or highly improbable) - and impossible.

Here - (from dictionary.com)

im·pos·si·ble [im-pos-uh-buhl]
adjective
1. not possible; unable to be, exist, happen, etc.
2. unable to be done, performed, effected, etc.: an impossible assignment.
3. incapable of being true, as a rumor.
4. not to be done, endured, etc., with any degree of reason or propriety: an impossible situation.
5. utterly impracticable: an impossible plan.

Origin:
1250–1300; Middle English < Latin impossibilis. See im-2 , possible

Related forms
im·pos·si·ble·ness, noun
im·pos·si·bly, adverb

Can be confused:  impossible, impracticable, impractical, improbable.



Seece on 31 December 2011
JimmyDanger said:

I think some of you don't understand the difference between improbable (or highly improbable) - and impossible.

Here - (from dictionary.com)

im·pos·si·ble [im-pos-uh-buhl]
adjective
1. not possible; unable to be, exist, happen, etc.
2. unable to be done, performed, effected, etc.: an impossible assignment.
3. incapable of being true, as a rumor.
4. not to be done, endured, etc., with any degree of reason or propriety: an impossible situation.
5. utterly impracticable: an impossible plan.

Origin:
1250–1300; Middle English < Latin impossibilis. See im-2 , possible

Related forms
im·pos·si·ble·ness, noun
im·pos·si·bly, adverb

Can be confused:  impossible, impracticable, impractical, improbable.

Don't bring logic into this!