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Forums - Sales Discussion - Numbers That MS Needs To Pull To Tie The PS3 For 2011. And Why I Think It Is Now Impossible.

 

Will The 360 Be Able To Pull It Off?

The Kinect Will Rule The ... 220 27.92%
 
It Will Be Close, But The... 241 30.58%
 
No Way. The PS3 Will Be ... 270 34.26%
 
What Are You Talking Abou... 56 7.11%
 
Total:787
Michael-5 on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:

Actually if you look under annual summary it says 14.39 million for PS3, and their recent article says the same. VGC estimate PS3 finishing as 14.6 million (1.4% gain) and 360 finishing at 14.1 million (3.7% gain).

Then something isn't right.  If you go by the new charts we have, it shows the PS3 sold ~13.9 million (got by subtracting the total of PS3s sold at the end of 2010 from the total sold at the end of 2009).  I know the Kowen said that the HW tables we have still have the old unadjusted data.  Could The Source be using that?

I dunno. I remember last year the PS3 ended at 14.44 million, and they adjusted it down to 14.39 million. It's been 14.39 all year, seems unlikely that they forgot to adjust that. If they adjust it, we will probably see that when they add in a 2011 slot for annual summary.

That's the thing, though.  It seems they did quite a bit of adjusting while they were reworking the site.  Everything is still not completely updated, which is why I always go by the Global Charts.

Then 360 was at 13.3 million or so last year.

Well that's good for PS3 and 360 then, but finally VGC estimate 2012 sales to be down, so I can start getting excited for the next gen.



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thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:

Actually if you look under annual summary it says 14.39 million for PS3, and their recent article says the same. VGC estimate PS3 finishing as 14.6 million (1.4% gain) and 360 finishing at 14.1 million (3.7% gain).

Then something isn't right.  If you go by the new charts we have, it shows the PS3 sold ~13.9 million (got by subtracting the total of PS3s sold at the end of 2010 from the total sold at the end of 2009).  I know the Kowen said that the HW tables we have still have the old unadjusted data.  Could The Source be using that?

I dunno. I remember last year the PS3 ended at 14.44 million, and they adjusted it down to 14.39 million. It's been 14.39 all year, seems unlikely that they forgot to adjust that. If they adjust it, we will probably see that when they add in a 2011 slot for annual summary.

That's the thing, though.  It seems they did quite a bit of adjusting while they were reworking the site.  Everything is still not completely updated, which is why I always go by the Global Charts.

Then 360 was at 13.3 million or so last year.

Well that's good for PS3 and 360 then, but finally VGC estimate 2012 sales to be down, so I can start getting excited for the next gen.

Yea, that would put them both up for the year ~5%.  And I don't know about 2012.  I don't think the PS3 or 360 will be down by as much as VGC puts it (2.5 million for the PS3 and 3 million for the 360).  Next year I can see them both taking the final plunge to the $199 price point (250GB SKU for the 360).  This should help them at least stay flat or just slightly under.  Either way, I don't think next year will determine when MS or Sony launch their next systems, as they are probably already shooting for 2013.  And you're right, it will be exciting times again. 



 

Seece on 31 December 2011

Gap will end around 200k, yet you thought it was 'impossible' skirting the edge there



 

thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Seece said:

Gap will end around 200k, yet you thought it was 'impossible' skirting the edge there

Yes, it was much closer than what I thought it would be, but it stil didn't happen.  So I was right, it turned out impossible. 

Also, the gap is going to end up closer to 300K with next weeks numbers.



 

Seece on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:

Gap will end around 200k, yet you thought it was 'impossible' skirting the edge there

Yes, it was much closer than what I thought it would be, but it stil didn't happen.  So I was right, it turned out impossible. 

Also, the gap is going to end up closer to 300K with next weeks numbers.

You're completely ignoring the fact X360 is up yoy more than PS3 is, by 100k.

And the fact it was still close (and could very well be ahead in shipments) shows it was not 'impossible'



 

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thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:

Gap will end around 200k, yet you thought it was 'impossible' skirting the edge there

Yes, it was much closer than what I thought it would be, but it stil didn't happen.  So I was right, it turned out impossible. 

Also, the gap is going to end up closer to 300K with next weeks numbers.

You're completely ignoring the fact X360 is up yoy more than PS3 is, by 100k.

And the fact it was still close (and could very well be ahead in shipments) shows it was not 'impossible'

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 



 

thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
kowenicki said:
If it stays roughly as is then the PS3 has 'outsold' the 360 by 250k... or 1.7%

Market share 2011 (home consoles) will be:

PS3 34.9%
360 34.4%

Moral victory for 360... MASSIVE HOLIDAY DEALS.... :p

Fixed that for you. 

I will admit this year was a victory for the 360 because it was up ~5% in 2012, thus making it the best year for the 360.  Now it's your turn to admit is was a victory for the PS3 because it was up ~5%, thus making it the best year for the PS3, and it outsold every console (except 3DS, barring any adjustments). 



 

Seece on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 

Get over yourself. It's nothing to do with paining me to admit PS3 has won, if it has congratz to people that said it would, Sony and the PS3 ... I'm just calling out your ridiculous assumption it was impossible. Just because it didn't happen didn't mean it was impossible like you claimed.

You seem like a bright guy, don't believe you're stupid enough to actually think it was impossible ...



 

thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 

Get over yourself. It's nothing to do with paining me to admit PS3 has won, if it has congratz to people that said it would, Sony and the PS3 ... I'm just calling out your ridiculous assumption it was impossible. Just because it didn't happen didn't mean it was impossible like you claimed.

You seem like a bright guy, don't believe you're stupid enough to actually think it was impossible ...

I wrote why I thought it was impossible with the given circumstances at the time of the OP and it turned out to be.  Even with the massive holiday sales it had in the US (I'm sure they had great deals around the world, too) for Nov and Dec and having the US in its pocket (the largest market for the holidays), it still didn't pull it off.  Like I said, they definitely were able to decrease the gap by more than I thought (barring any adjustments), but that doesn't change my opinion that it was impossible.



 

Seece on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

You're right, we'll have to wait for shipments before all is truly said and done.  However, I fully expect adjustments to again be in favor of the PS3.

And yes, it was impossible for the 360 to destroy a full 1.5 million lead the PS3 had over it.  It's ok, you can admit it.  It won't hurt, I promise. 

Get over yourself. It's nothing to do with paining me to admit PS3 has won, if it has congratz to people that said it would, Sony and the PS3 ... I'm just calling out your ridiculous assumption it was impossible. Just because it didn't happen didn't mean it was impossible like you claimed.

You seem like a bright guy, don't believe you're stupid enough to actually think it was impossible ...

I wrote why I thought it was impossible with the given circumstances at the time of the OP and it turned out to be.  Even with the massive holiday sales it had in the US (I'm sure they had great deals around the world, too) for Nov and Dec and having the US in its pocket (the largest market for the holidays), it still didn't pull it off.  Like I said, they definitely were able to decrease the gap by more than I thought (barring any adjustments), but that doesn't change my opinion that it was impossible.

Right ... and like kowen says, all they had to do was cut in Europe and it would have turned into possible, thus not impossible. I mean to say it's impossible is stupid.

there is a ton of stuff they could have done to make it not impossible, unless you think it was impossible for MS to get another 200k sold? I guess cutting $50 in mid december wouldn't have mustered that then?