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Forums - Sales Discussion - Numbers That MS Needs To Pull To Tie The PS3 For 2011. And Why I Think It Is Now Impossible.

 

Will The 360 Be Able To Pull It Off?

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thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
D-Joe said:
last year's last week was 26~Jan 1,but this year is 25~31,there's a difference because Dec 25

Not really.  The 25th is when everyone is giving out presents and spending time with their families, not when everyone is out shopping.



 

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D-Joe on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
D-Joe said:
last year's last week was 26~Jan 1,but this year is 25~31,there's a difference because Dec 25

Not really.  The 25th is when everyone is giving out presents and spending time with their families, not when everyone is out shopping.

did you really think childrens walk alone to buy a gift for himself?



http://zh-tw.justin.tv/johndoe1899

thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
D-Joe said:
thismeintiel said:
D-Joe said:
last year's last week was 26~Jan 1,but this year is 25~31,there's a difference because Dec 25

Not really.  The 25th is when everyone is giving out presents and spending time with their families, not when everyone is out shopping.

did you really think childrens walk alone to buy a gift for himself?

I'm not getting what your trying to say.  What I'm saying is the 25th is not a huge shopping day.  In fact, a lot of stores are closed, or close early.  So no, the 25th is not going to make a big difference in sales.



 

D-Joe on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
D-Joe said:
thismeintiel said:
D-Joe said:
last year's last week was 26~Jan 1,but this year is 25~31,there's a difference because Dec 25

Not really.  The 25th is when everyone is giving out presents and spending time with their families, not when everyone is out shopping.

did you really think childrens walk alone to buy a gift for himself?

I'm not getting what your trying to say.  What I'm saying is the 25th is not a huge shopping day.  In fact, a lot of stores are closed, or close early.  So no, the 25th is not going to make a big difference in sales.

...FUCK

did i said "huge" or "big"?



http://zh-tw.justin.tv/johndoe1899

thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
D-Joe said:
thismeintiel said:
D-Joe said:
thismeintiel said:
D-Joe said:
last year's last week was 26~Jan 1,but this year is 25~31,there's a difference because Dec 25

Not really.  The 25th is when everyone is giving out presents and spending time with their families, not when everyone is out shopping.

did you really think childrens walk alone to buy a gift for himself?

I'm not getting what your trying to say.  What I'm saying is the 25th is not a huge shopping day.  In fact, a lot of stores are closed, or close early.  So no, the 25th is not going to make a big difference in sales.

...FUCK

did i said "huge" or "big"?

Lol, well fine.  It won't make any difference.  In fact, I'd wager that the 26th has higher sales numbers than the 25th.  As I said above, a lot of stores are either closed or they close early.



 

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Michael-5 on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Thanks to another great week for the 360 (and adjustments to previous weeks), the 360 dropped the gap the PS3 had over it by ~333K this week. However, the 360 needed to be ahead of the PS3 by ~562K for this week to tie it.

I am fully confident history will repeat itself and the PS3 will be ahead next week by at least ~80K, which would leave the final gap at ~310K in favor of the PS3. In the event history does not repeat itself, than the most the 360 can hope for is a statistical tie for the remaining week, leaving the gap ~230K in favor of the PS3.

I will have to hand it to MS, they were able to make it much closer than I had originally thought, so congrats to them. And congrats to the PS3 for being to hold of the 360's incredible holiday season gains.

Even then, this is much less then you and I had anticipated. How many total units does this make it for 360 annually? Did it break 15 million?

I count 360 at 13.6 million, which is the same number of sales as in 2010. this means with the numbers 360 gets next week, it should finish off around 14-14.1 million. This means a record year for 360 (whithout a permanent price cut) and well 1 million shy of it's goal. If PS3 finishes 300k higher, that puts it at 14.14.4 million, which is just a hair below their 2010 sales, but still their second strongest year, and just shy of 15 million.

I think 3DS was the best selling system of the year. It's at 14.3 million now, and just had a 1.75 million week. Wii fishinshes off aroun 12.1, which is terrible for the Wii. Ds is at around 9 million now, which is a massive drop. PSP is at around 7.3 million, but next year that number should crash with PSV already out in Japan, and coming out soon everywhere else.

Well, we were just going with home consoles, so the 3DS wouldn't count.  But still, great numbers for the 3DS.  Kinda wondering if we have it overtracked in the US, though, like it was in Nov.  Also, according to VGC, the PS3 sold 13.9 million units in 2010.  It only has to sell ~100K to match last year, which it will do more than that next year.  So the PS3 will be up YOY for the year.

Actually if you look under annual summary it says 14.39 million for PS3, and their recent article says the same. VGC estimate PS3 finishing as 14.6 million (1.4% gain) and 360 finishing at 14.1 million (3.7% gain).



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thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Thanks to another great week for the 360 (and adjustments to previous weeks), the 360 dropped the gap the PS3 had over it by ~333K this week. However, the 360 needed to be ahead of the PS3 by ~562K for this week to tie it.

I am fully confident history will repeat itself and the PS3 will be ahead next week by at least ~80K, which would leave the final gap at ~310K in favor of the PS3. In the event history does not repeat itself, than the most the 360 can hope for is a statistical tie for the remaining week, leaving the gap ~230K in favor of the PS3.

I will have to hand it to MS, they were able to make it much closer than I had originally thought, so congrats to them. And congrats to the PS3 for being to hold of the 360's incredible holiday season gains.

Even then, this is much less then you and I had anticipated. How many total units does this make it for 360 annually? Did it break 15 million?

I count 360 at 13.6 million, which is the same number of sales as in 2010. this means with the numbers 360 gets next week, it should finish off around 14-14.1 million. This means a record year for 360 (whithout a permanent price cut) and well 1 million shy of it's goal. If PS3 finishes 300k higher, that puts it at 14.14.4 million, which is just a hair below their 2010 sales, but still their second strongest year, and just shy of 15 million.

I think 3DS was the best selling system of the year. It's at 14.3 million now, and just had a 1.75 million week. Wii fishinshes off aroun 12.1, which is terrible for the Wii. Ds is at around 9 million now, which is a massive drop. PSP is at around 7.3 million, but next year that number should crash with PSV already out in Japan, and coming out soon everywhere else.

Well, we were just going with home consoles, so the 3DS wouldn't count.  But still, great numbers for the 3DS.  Kinda wondering if we have it overtracked in the US, though, like it was in Nov.  Also, according to VGC, the PS3 sold 13.9 million units in 2010.  It only has to sell ~100K to match last year, which it will do more than that next year.  So the PS3 will be up YOY for the year.

Actually if you look under annual summary it says 14.39 million for PS3, and their recent article says the same. VGC estimate PS3 finishing as 14.6 million (1.4% gain) and 360 finishing at 14.1 million (3.7% gain).

Then something isn't right.  If you go by the new charts we have, it shows the PS3 sold ~13.9 million (got by subtracting the total of PS3s sold at the end of 2010 from the total sold at the end of 2009).  I know the Kowen said that the HW tables we have still have the old unadjusted data.  Could The Source be using that?



 

easyrider on 31 December 2011
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Thanks to another great week for the 360 (and adjustments to previous weeks), the 360 dropped the gap the PS3 had over it by ~333K this week. However, the 360 needed to be ahead of the PS3 by ~562K for this week to tie it.

I am fully confident history will repeat itself and the PS3 will be ahead next week by at least ~80K, which would leave the final gap at ~310K in favor of the PS3. In the event history does not repeat itself, than the most the 360 can hope for is a statistical tie for the remaining week, leaving the gap ~230K in favor of the PS3.

I will have to hand it to MS, they were able to make it much closer than I had originally thought, so congrats to them. And congrats to the PS3 for being to hold of the 360's incredible holiday season gains.

Even then, this is much less then you and I had anticipated. How many total units does this make it for 360 annually? Did it break 15 million?

I count 360 at 13.6 million, which is the same number of sales as in 2010. this means with the numbers 360 gets next week, it should finish off around 14-14.1 million. This means a record year for 360 (whithout a permanent price cut) and well 1 million shy of it's goal. If PS3 finishes 300k higher, that puts it at 14.14.4 million, which is just a hair below their 2010 sales, but still their second strongest year, and just shy of 15 million.

I think 3DS was the best selling system of the year. It's at 14.3 million now, and just had a 1.75 million week. Wii fishinshes off aroun 12.1, which is terrible for the Wii. Ds is at around 9 million now, which is a massive drop. PSP is at around 7.3 million, but next year that number should crash with PSV already out in Japan, and coming out soon everywhere else.

Well, we were just going with home consoles, so the 3DS wouldn't count.  But still, great numbers for the 3DS.  Kinda wondering if we have it overtracked in the US, though, like it was in Nov.  Also, according to VGC, the PS3 sold 13.9 million units in 2010.  It only has to sell ~100K to match last year, which it will do more than that next year.  So the PS3 will be up YOY for the year.

Actually if you look under annual summary it says 14.39 million for PS3, and their recent article says the same. VGC estimate PS3 finishing as 14.6 million (1.4% gain) and 360 finishing at 14.1 million (3.7% gain).


looks off to me.



Michael-5 on 31 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Thanks to another great week for the 360 (and adjustments to previous weeks), the 360 dropped the gap the PS3 had over it by ~333K this week. However, the 360 needed to be ahead of the PS3 by ~562K for this week to tie it.

I am fully confident history will repeat itself and the PS3 will be ahead next week by at least ~80K, which would leave the final gap at ~310K in favor of the PS3. In the event history does not repeat itself, than the most the 360 can hope for is a statistical tie for the remaining week, leaving the gap ~230K in favor of the PS3.

I will have to hand it to MS, they were able to make it much closer than I had originally thought, so congrats to them. And congrats to the PS3 for being to hold of the 360's incredible holiday season gains.

Even then, this is much less then you and I had anticipated. How many total units does this make it for 360 annually? Did it break 15 million?

I count 360 at 13.6 million, which is the same number of sales as in 2010. this means with the numbers 360 gets next week, it should finish off around 14-14.1 million. This means a record year for 360 (whithout a permanent price cut) and well 1 million shy of it's goal. If PS3 finishes 300k higher, that puts it at 14.14.4 million, which is just a hair below their 2010 sales, but still their second strongest year, and just shy of 15 million.

I think 3DS was the best selling system of the year. It's at 14.3 million now, and just had a 1.75 million week. Wii fishinshes off aroun 12.1, which is terrible for the Wii. Ds is at around 9 million now, which is a massive drop. PSP is at around 7.3 million, but next year that number should crash with PSV already out in Japan, and coming out soon everywhere else.

Well, we were just going with home consoles, so the 3DS wouldn't count.  But still, great numbers for the 3DS.  Kinda wondering if we have it overtracked in the US, though, like it was in Nov.  Also, according to VGC, the PS3 sold 13.9 million units in 2010.  It only has to sell ~100K to match last year, which it will do more than that next year.  So the PS3 will be up YOY for the year.

Actually if you look under annual summary it says 14.39 million for PS3, and their recent article says the same. VGC estimate PS3 finishing as 14.6 million (1.4% gain) and 360 finishing at 14.1 million (3.7% gain).

Then something isn't right.  If you go by the new charts we have, it shows the PS3 sold ~13.9 million (got by subtracting the total of PS3s sold at the end of 2010 from the total sold at the end of 2009).  I know the Kowen said that the HW tables we have still have the old unadjusted data.  Could The Source be using that?

I dunno. I remember last year the PS3 ended at 14.44 million, and they adjusted it down to 14.39 million. It's been 14.39 all year, seems unlikely that they forgot to adjust that. If they adjust it, we will probably see that when they add in a 2011 slot for annual summary.



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thismeintiel on 31 December 2011
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:

Actually if you look under annual summary it says 14.39 million for PS3, and their recent article says the same. VGC estimate PS3 finishing as 14.6 million (1.4% gain) and 360 finishing at 14.1 million (3.7% gain).

Then something isn't right.  If you go by the new charts we have, it shows the PS3 sold ~13.9 million (got by subtracting the total of PS3s sold at the end of 2010 from the total sold at the end of 2009).  I know the Kowen said that the HW tables we have still have the old unadjusted data.  Could The Source be using that?

I dunno. I remember last year the PS3 ended at 14.44 million, and they adjusted it down to 14.39 million. It's been 14.39 all year, seems unlikely that they forgot to adjust that. If they adjust it, we will probably see that when they add in a 2011 slot for annual summary.

That's the thing, though.  It seems they did quite a bit of adjusting while they were reworking the site.  Everything is still not completely updated, which is why I always go by the Global Charts.

Edit: So using the Global Chart method, that would be more like a 5% increase for both systems.