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Forums - Sales Discussion - Numbers That MS Needs To Pull To Tie The PS3 For 2011. And Why I Think It Is Now Impossible.

 

Will The 360 Be Able To Pull It Off?

The Kinect Will Rule The ... 220 27.92%
 
It Will Be Close, But The... 241 30.58%
 
No Way. The PS3 Will Be ... 270 34.26%
 
What Are You Talking Abou... 56 7.11%
 
Total:787
Michael-5 on 29 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

@ Micheal-5

I'm still not buying that shortages led to a ~102K gap for the PS3 above the 360 for the last week of December.  Not when 2010, with no 360 shortages, has the PS3at a  ~258K lead over the 360 (I would guess the PS3 price cut helped boost it an additional 158K-178K).  And in 2007, with no 360 shortages, the PS3 had a ~91K lead over the 360.  Then with the 360 having a much better price advantage with a new $199 SKU in 2008, it only beat the PS3 by ~4K, or a statistical tie.  And more importantly, in 2006, with the PS3 not being released in most of EMEAA yet, while the 360 was, the 360 only beat it by ~33K.

2009 (not 2010 like you said) PS3 had a crazy fall with the PS3 Slim. That year was a bizarre year where the PS3 outsold the 360 in the holiday season.

What happened in 2008? 360 outsold PS3 by 4k :-O!

Maybe PS3 will outsell 360, Japan takes longer to drop in sales, and that's why Ps3 holds longer. However If there is a gap, I think it will be <100k. So the annual total difference will be 500k.



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Panama on 29 December 2011

The way it's selling at the moment, it may just pull ahead of the PS3. It's amazing how well the thing sells in America. It boggles the mind as to why people want to play around for 5 minutes with the EyeToy 1.5

It'll be 2.0 once it's actually functional.



mitlar37 on 29 December 2011
Panama said:
The way it's selling at the moment, it may just pull ahead of the PS3. It's amazing how well the thing sells in America. It boggles the mind as to why people want to play around for 5 minutes with the EyeToy 1.5

It'll be 2.0 once it's actually functional.


And yet it's sold 14 million and the eyetoy has sold what?



 WII Code: 1732 3363 1704 6441

Panama on 29 December 2011

Still getting used to posting.



Panama on 29 December 2011
mitlar37 said:
Panama said:
The way it's selling at the moment, it may just pull ahead of the PS3. It's amazing how well the thing sells in America. It boggles the mind as to why people want to play around for 5 minutes with the EyeToy 1.5

It'll be 2.0 once it's actually functional.


And yet it's sold 14 million and the eyetoy has sold what?

I know right? It's amazing what Oprah and Justin Bieber can do. 



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MaulerX on 29 December 2011
Panama said:
The way it's selling at the moment, it may just pull ahead of the PS3. It's amazing how well the thing sells in America. It boggles the mind as to why people want to play around for 5 minutes with the EyeToy 1.5

It'll be 2.0 once it's actually functional.

 

You should get banned. That garbage has no place in this sales topic.

 

You may not like Kinect, but the fact that you can play it's games in pitch black makes it infinitely better and functional than an EyeToy.



thismeintiel on 29 December 2011
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

@ Micheal-5

I'm still not buying that shortages led to a ~102K gap for the PS3 above the 360 for the last week of December.  Not when 2010, with no 360 shortages, has the PS3at a  ~258K lead over the 360 (I would guess the PS3 price cut helped boost it an additional 158K-178K).  And in 2007, with no 360 shortages, the PS3 had a ~91K lead over the 360.  Then with the 360 having a much better price advantage with a new $199 SKU in 2008, it only beat the PS3 by ~4K, or a statistical tie.  And more importantly, in 2006, with the PS3 not being released in most of EMEAA yet, while the 360 was, the 360 only beat it by ~33K.

2009 (not 2010 like you said) PS3 had a crazy fall with the PS3 Slim. That year was a bizarre year where the PS3 outsold the 360 in the holiday season.

What happened in 2008? 360 outsold PS3 by 4k :-O!

Maybe PS3 will outsell 360, Japan takes longer to drop in sales, and that's why Ps3 holds longer. However If there is a gap, I think it will be <100k. So the annual total difference will be 500k.

Lol, thanks for pointing out my mistake.  It's been fixed.  Anyway, I think this year it could be less than 100K, which is why I went with 80K.  And the reason sales go up higher near the last few weeks in December in Japan is because there gift giving is mostly done for the New Year, as opposed to around the 25th for Christmas.  Or at least, that is what I have read.



 

Michael-5 on 29 December 2011
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

@ Micheal-5

I'm still not buying that shortages led to a ~102K gap for the PS3 above the 360 for the last week of December.  Not when 2010, with no 360 shortages, has the PS3at a  ~258K lead over the 360 (I would guess the PS3 price cut helped boost it an additional 158K-178K).  And in 2007, with no 360 shortages, the PS3 had a ~91K lead over the 360.  Then with the 360 having a much better price advantage with a new $199 SKU in 2008, it only beat the PS3 by ~4K, or a statistical tie.  And more importantly, in 2006, with the PS3 not being released in most of EMEAA yet, while the 360 was, the 360 only beat it by ~33K.

2009 (not 2010 like you said) PS3 had a crazy fall with the PS3 Slim. That year was a bizarre year where the PS3 outsold the 360 in the holiday season.

What happened in 2008? 360 outsold PS3 by 4k :-O!

Maybe PS3 will outsell 360, Japan takes longer to drop in sales, and that's why Ps3 holds longer. However If there is a gap, I think it will be <100k. So the annual total difference will be 500k.

Lol, thanks for pointing out my mistake.  It's been fixed.  Anyway, I think this year it could be less than 100K, which is why I went with 80K.  And the reason sales go up higher near the last few weeks in December in Japan is because there gift giving is mostly done for the New Year, as opposed to around the 25th for Christmas.  Or at least, that is what I have read.

If you look at Japanese sales, they also fall after the 25th. They just fall slower. For the 80k, I agree, now let's wait and see.



What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database
Vote for the March Most Wanted / February Results

thismeintiel on 29 December 2011
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

@ Micheal-5

I'm still not buying that shortages led to a ~102K gap for the PS3 above the 360 for the last week of December.  Not when 2010, with no 360 shortages, has the PS3at a  ~258K lead over the 360 (I would guess the PS3 price cut helped boost it an additional 158K-178K).  And in 2007, with no 360 shortages, the PS3 had a ~91K lead over the 360.  Then with the 360 having a much better price advantage with a new $199 SKU in 2008, it only beat the PS3 by ~4K, or a statistical tie.  And more importantly, in 2006, with the PS3 not being released in most of EMEAA yet, while the 360 was, the 360 only beat it by ~33K.

2009 (not 2010 like you said) PS3 had a crazy fall with the PS3 Slim. That year was a bizarre year where the PS3 outsold the 360 in the holiday season.

What happened in 2008? 360 outsold PS3 by 4k :-O!

Maybe PS3 will outsell 360, Japan takes longer to drop in sales, and that's why Ps3 holds longer. However If there is a gap, I think it will be <100k. So the annual total difference will be 500k.

Lol, thanks for pointing out my mistake.  It's been fixed.  Anyway, I think this year it could be less than 100K, which is why I went with 80K.  And the reason sales go up higher near the last few weeks in December in Japan is because there gift giving is mostly done for the New Year, as opposed to around the 25th for Christmas.  Or at least, that is what I have read.

If you look at Japanese sales, they also fall after the 25th. They just fall slower. For the 80k, I agree, now let's wait and see.

In general, you are right.  However, if you look at the numbers closely, since 2008 the PS3 has been able to buck those trends and has actually risen from the week of the 25th.  On average, it's been up ~13K from the previous week.  If that trend follows, then next week the PS3 would be ~90K next week in Japan.  With the 360 at ~5K that week, that would give the PS3 a gap of ~85K.  It just depends on if EMEAA and Americas will cancel each other out that week.  Last year, EMEAA helped boost the PS3 ~32K over the already ~69K gap it had in Japan.  If that happens again this year,  the gap may just be ~121K.  Of course, I'll stick with 80K cause I don't want to overshoot it. 

But like you said, we will have to wait and see.  Sucks the numbers for this week may not be in til next week. 



 

JimmyDanger on 29 December 2011

Tick Tick Tick Tick Tick Tick

BOOM!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqkJ30Kh7ZM

It shall be close - I'd give 360 4 - 1 odds off doing it, with PS3 the clear favourite at 1.4 - 1