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thismeintiel on 29 December 2011
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Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Michael-5 said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

@ Micheal-5

I'm still not buying that shortages led to a ~102K gap for the PS3 above the 360 for the last week of December.  Not when 2010, with no 360 shortages, has the PS3at a  ~258K lead over the 360 (I would guess the PS3 price cut helped boost it an additional 158K-178K).  And in 2007, with no 360 shortages, the PS3 had a ~91K lead over the 360.  Then with the 360 having a much better price advantage with a new $199 SKU in 2008, it only beat the PS3 by ~4K, or a statistical tie.  And more importantly, in 2006, with the PS3 not being released in most of EMEAA yet, while the 360 was, the 360 only beat it by ~33K.

2009 (not 2010 like you said) PS3 had a crazy fall with the PS3 Slim. That year was a bizarre year where the PS3 outsold the 360 in the holiday season.

What happened in 2008? 360 outsold PS3 by 4k :-O!

Maybe PS3 will outsell 360, Japan takes longer to drop in sales, and that's why Ps3 holds longer. However If there is a gap, I think it will be <100k. So the annual total difference will be 500k.

Lol, thanks for pointing out my mistake.  It's been fixed.  Anyway, I think this year it could be less than 100K, which is why I went with 80K.  And the reason sales go up higher near the last few weeks in December in Japan is because there gift giving is mostly done for the New Year, as opposed to around the 25th for Christmas.  Or at least, that is what I have read.

If you look at Japanese sales, they also fall after the 25th. They just fall slower. For the 80k, I agree, now let's wait and see.

In general, you are right.  However, if you look at the numbers closely, since 2008 the PS3 has been able to buck those trends and has actually risen from the week of the 25th.  On average, it's been up ~13K from the previous week.  If that trend follows, then next week the PS3 would be ~90K next week in Japan.  With the 360 at ~5K that week, that would give the PS3 a gap of ~85K.  It just depends on if EMEAA and Americas will cancel each other out that week.  Last year, EMEAA helped boost the PS3 ~32K over the already ~69K gap it had in Japan.  If that happens again this year,  the gap may just be ~121K.  Of course, I'll stick with 80K cause I don't want to overshoot it. 

But like you said, we will have to wait and see.  Sucks the numbers for this week may not be in til next week.