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Forums - Sales - Debunking a VGC myth: PS3 needs more stock because it ships to more countries

Product A. sells on average 10 units a week

2 shops each with eg 8 units each = 16 units needed to handle expected demand
shop 1,
shop 2

Product B. sells on average 10 units a week
10 shops each with eg 2 units each = 20 units needed to handle expected demand
shop 1
shop 2
shop 3
shop 4
shop 5
shop 6
shop 7
shop 8
shop 9
shop 10

ie The more shops you have the more stock you will need to have in stock




All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ saidTrue the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

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daveJ said:
Product A. sells on average 10 units a week

2 shops each with eg 8 units each = 16 units needed to handle expected demand
shop 1,
shop 2

Product B. sells on average 10 units a week
10 shops each with eg 2 units each = 20 units needed to handle expected demand
shop 1
shop 2
shop 3
shop 4
shop 5
shop 6
shop 7
shop 8
shop 9
shop 10

ie The more shops you have the more stock you will need to have in stock


That doesn't make sense. You just used too low a number, so you needed to round.

The 10 shops would need 1.6 units each, but of course that doesn't make sense. If you use a larger number it does.

Even so, in you example, the moment a shop sells a unit, it will have 1 and not 2. Some will have 0. When this happens over time and if demand stays stable the average for all the stores around 1.6 units per store.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

Troll_Whisperer said:

That doesn't make sense. You just used too low a number, so you needed to round.

The 10 shops would need 1.6 units each, but of course that doesn't make sense. If you use a larger number it does.

Even so, in you example, the moment a shop sells a unit, it will have 1 and not 2. Some will have 0. When this happens over time and if demand stays stable the average for all the stores around 1.6 units per store.

Actually he has a point. None of the smaller shops will end up with 0 because they each have 2, when they sell a unit they'll end up with 1

And your comment about numbers being too small, in places that are not NA/EUR/JAP (aka M.E., AFR, ASIA) there are tons of shops with only one-two consoles in stock, believe me I've seen it a lot...

So in order for shops like that to be prepared for any sudden situations, they need to have something like 200-300% buffers above their weekly average (aka they need to 2-3 consoles extra in stock)

But for a store with a large number of console sales, something like a 10% extra buffer is enough (in this case there's no rounding numbers)



miz1q2w3e said:
Troll_Whisperer said:

That doesn't make sense. You just used too low a number, so you needed to round.

The 10 shops would need 1.6 units each, but of course that doesn't make sense. If you use a larger number it does.

Even so, in you example, the moment a shop sells a unit, it will have 1 and not 2. Some will have 0. When this happens over time and if demand stays stable the average for all the stores around 1.6 units per store.

Actually he has a point. None of the smaller shops will end up with 0 because they each have 2, when they sell a unit they'll end up with 1

And your comment about numbers being too small, in places that are not NA/EUR/JAP (aka M.E., AFR, ASIA) there are tons of shops with only one-two consoles in stock, believe me I've seen it a lot...

So in order for shops like that to be prepared for any sudden situations, they need to have something like 200-300% buffers above their weekly average (aka they need to 2-3 consoles extra in stock)

But for a store with a large number of console sales, something like a 10% extra buffer is enough (in this case there's no rounding numbers)

If someone comes to a shop with 2 console and they suddenly ask for 2 consoles, the stock will be 0, right?

Again, some shops will be above average and some below, but the average will remain the same. The stores get the consoles from warehouses, Sony ships to these warehouses, not the individual shops. In any case the average per shop will be the same.

Some shops will ask for the 1 year shipment and the stock will spike, but at the same time some shops will not ask for any units for months because they already asked for their 1-year shipment 11 months ago, so in their case stock will be below average (0 units needed) and will bring the average on par.

It's a matter of statistics.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

Troll_Whisperer said:

If someone comes to a shop with 2 console and they suddenly ask for 2 consoles, the stock will be 0, right?

Again, some shops will be above average and some below, but the average will remain the same. The stores get the consoles from warehouses, Sony ships to these warehouses, not the individual shops. In any case the average per shop will be the same.

Some shops will ask for the 1 year shipment and the stock will spike, but at the same time some shops will not ask for any units for months because they already asked for their 1-year shipment 11 months ago, so in their case stock will be below average (0 units needed) and will bring the average on par.

It's a matter of statistics.

lolololo @the bolded the way you post sometimes... XD

Anyways, yes the average will remain the same, but average doesn't matter when numbers become small scale, buffer stock will always be disproportionately high in comparison to units sold in this case

daveJ's example was more than enough imo, I can't explain it any simpler for you

 

EDIT: I just saw Machina's post... And you're still arguing why?



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miz1q2w3e said:
Troll_Whisperer said:

If someone comes to a shop with 2 console and they suddenly ask for 2 consoles, the stock will be 0, right?

Again, some shops will be above average and some below, but the average will remain the same. The stores get the consoles from warehouses, Sony ships to these warehouses, not the individual shops. In any case the average per shop will be the same.

Some shops will ask for the 1 year shipment and the stock will spike, but at the same time some shops will not ask for any units for months because they already asked for their 1-year shipment 11 months ago, so in their case stock will be below average (0 units needed) and will bring the average on par.

It's a matter of statistics.

lolololo @the bolded the way you post sometimes... XD

Anyways, yes the average will remain the same, but average doesn't matter when numbers become small scale, buffer stock will always be disproportionately high in comparison to units sold in this case

daveJ's example was more than enough imo, I can't explain it any simpler for you

A shop won't ask for 200 consoles if it sells 2 per month, it's financial suicide. I may ask for 10. But then, 10 more stores will have 2-3 and will not have asked for stock for months. They're not going to try and keep an amouth of stock that's good for a year constantly.

What you're saying is that all small stores keep a constant stock of several months in case there is a sudden spike in demand. Again, it doesn't work like that. If you sell 2 a month you're not gonna order more every time you have less than 100 consoles in stock.

And BTW, if you run out of consoles, you run out of consoles. It happens in many stores in the West. I don't know why you think that it's going to work different elsewhere, you need units for a certain amount of time.

I don't know why you have a problem with this, but it's very simple. The average demand of the whole market is going to be enough for the same amount of time as in other markets.

Also, sor some reason, you're assuming this doesn't happen in markets where X360 sells, which is simply not true, because there are a lot of remote towns in these two.

As you would say, I can't explain it any simpler for you.

Edit: and, oh, I don't know why you say the average doesn't matter, It's all about the average. What happens in a few select stores in the country doesn't matter. It's the whole number that counts when evaluating how much stock there is in a country and whether it is above what other countries have percentage-wise.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

Troll_Whisperer said:
miz1q2w3e said:

lolololo @the bolded the way you post sometimes... XD

Anyways, yes the average will remain the same, but average doesn't matter when numbers become small scale, buffer stock will always be disproportionately high in comparison to units sold in this case

daveJ's example was more than enough imo, I can't explain it any simpler for you

A shop won't ask for 200 consoles if it sells 2 per month, it's financial suicide. I may ask for 10. But then, 10 more stores will have 2-3 and will not have asked for stock for months. They're not going to try and keep an amouth of stock that's good for a year constantly.

What you're saying is that all small stores keep a constant stock of several months in case there is a sudden spike in demand. Again, it doesn't work like that. If you sell 2 a month you're not gonna order more every time you have less than 100 consoles in stock.

And BTW, if you run out of consoles, you run out of consoles. It happens in many stores in the West. I don't know why you think that it's going to work different elsewhere, you need units for a certain amount of time.

I don't know why you have a problem with this, but it's very simple. The average demand of the whole market is going to be enough for the same amount of time as in other markets.

Also, sor some reason, you're assuming this doesn't happen in markets where X360 sells, which is simply not true, because there are a lot of remote towns in these two.

As you would say, I can't explain it any simpler for you.

Half of the stuff you just wrote is total BS - I never said any of that

If you have a hypothetical average consumption of 1 unit per day but keep two just in case you have a redundancy then your average is still 1 unit per day. Say their are 1000 shops like this. Average = 1000

Now say another bigger shop averages at 1000 units per day and has the usual 10% buffer. Average = 1000 as well

Senario A: 2000 buffered units
Senario B: 100 buffered units

IRL it's not quite this severe but my point still stands. A high percentage of stock to sales ratio in regions similar to senario A = more stock sitting on shelves

wow, didn't think I'd have to go as basic as that but PLEASE tell me you understand now



Troll_Whisperer said:

If I am missing something and making an ass of myself let me know, but I think this is the case.

I vote A & B

...aaaand this is why this'll be my last reply - You apparently have no idea what you're talking about

Seriously, if you still dont get it take machina's, daveJ's, and my word for it



miz1q2w3e said:
Troll_Whisperer said:
miz1q2w3e said:

lolololo @the bolded the way you post sometimes... XD

Anyways, yes the average will remain the same, but average doesn't matter when numbers become small scale, buffer stock will always be disproportionately high in comparison to units sold in this case

daveJ's example was more than enough imo, I can't explain it any simpler for you

A shop won't ask for 200 consoles if it sells 2 per month, it's financial suicide. I may ask for 10. But then, 10 more stores will have 2-3 and will not have asked for stock for months. They're not going to try and keep an amouth of stock that's good for a year constantly.

What you're saying is that all small stores keep a constant stock of several months in case there is a sudden spike in demand. Again, it doesn't work like that. If you sell 2 a month you're not gonna order more every time you have less than 100 consoles in stock.

And BTW, if you run out of consoles, you run out of consoles. It happens in many stores in the West. I don't know why you think that it's going to work different elsewhere, you need units for a certain amount of time.

I don't know why you have a problem with this, but it's very simple. The average demand of the whole market is going to be enough for the same amount of time as in other markets.

Also, sor some reason, you're assuming this doesn't happen in markets where X360 sells, which is simply not true, because there are a lot of remote towns in these two.

As you would say, I can't explain it any simpler for you.

Half of the stuff you just wrote is total BS - I never said any of that

If you have a hypothetical average consumption of 1 unit per day but keep two just in case you have a redundancy then your average is still 1 unit per day. Say their are 1000 shops like this. Average = 1000

Now say another bigger shop averages at 1000 units per day and has the usual 10% buffer. Average = 1000 as well

Senario A: 2000 buffered units
Senario B: 100 buffered units

IRL it's not quite this severe but my point still stands. A high percentage of stock to sales ratio in regions similar to senario A = more stock sitting on shelves

wow, didn't think I'd have to go as basic as that but PLEASE tell me you understand now

That doesn't account for units sold.

In Scenario A there are 2,000 units total stock before the day starts.

In Scenario B there are 1,100 units before the day starts.

Next day, Scenario A will have enough units for the day, having an average of 2,000 in two days.

However, Scenario B will need to order 900 units more, bringing the total to 2,000 in two days.

 

Even if you apply it longer term, its the same. Eventually the average stock will remain the same.

Scenario A decides to get enough stock for 100 days= 100,000 units

Scenario B does the same= 100,000 units.

 

They may have different amounts of stock for different times, but receiving and selling the units at the same rate means the average stock will be the same.

 

And again, that's assuming all stores are small in one market and all are big in the other, which is false.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

miz1q2w3e said:
Troll_Whisperer said:

If I am missing something and making an ass of myself let me know, but I think this is the case.

I vote A & B

...aaaand this is why this'll be my last reply - You apparently have no idea what you're talking about

Seriously, if you still dont get it take machina's, daveJ's, and my word for it

I replied to those people already and they didn't have any more compelling reason to argue about what I say.

What I described in my previous post is very true, I think it is you who doesn't grasp what I am explaining here.

I'll be fine if this is your last post, I don't feel like having an argument online with someone who's obviously getting irritated. I came here will to have a discussion, not an argument.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.