yea i think Seece has done a great job of showing its possible. the only problem is that its likely the same plan sony has in the countries they sell the worst in. its a counter affect and the idea of it working is clear but because its a counter balance it won't work.

the thing is both companies have said the same thing and thats why it won't work unless one does it better then the other. theres a counter for everything Seece beleaves will help MS win so it cancels out.

a boost in sells is likely but it will be the same. i think Seece fails to realise the move has the same chance of boosting hardware as kinect, but on that point theres nothing coming out for move for that to happen so it falls on def ears.

when you look at the grand scope of things you'll see its even no matter wht anyone says, cause the same points Seece is making are equal for Sony cause once again they both have said this.

on the posting less thing. i think i'm going back to gamespy leaving vgc altogether. if i leave i won't comeback.

Could be.  I hate that shipping numbers take so long to come out after the quarter is done.  It seems that every quarter they extend the time to release their numbers by a couple days.  I could have sworn earlier this gen the reports would come out about two weeks after the quarter was over.  Now it seems they wait an entire month to release reports.

Also, it looks like the PS3 is going to be slightly ahead of the 360 this week, and probably for the next few weeks (maybe minus next week due to Forza).  If MS is going to unleash whatever plan they have to make up a more than 1 million gap this year, they better do it sooner rather than later.

The thing people on VGC don't ever notice, is that 360 is almost always selling better in the combined EMEAA and Americas region. So far for this year PS3 has sold 820k more units in Japan then 360, but the gap has only grown by 1 million. Even now with the PS3 on a price cut, 360 is outselling PS3 in Americas an EMEAA.

So to give Seece some credit, I expect in the combined regions outside Japan, for 360 to outsell PS3. For the same reason, because PS3 is the last decent selling 7th gen system in Japan (soon to stop selling well in Japan IMO), I don't expect PS3 to ever match 360 sales WW, unless this is well into the 8th gen.

Also I plain just don't agree with you that Move will boost as much hardware as Kinect. Kinect is a more original peripheral, and is selling 5x as well (to unique users) already. Kinect and Move are also very casual targeted peripherals, and lucky for MS casual gamers tend to buy more during the holidays, and Americas is the most strongly affected region by the holidays.

Kinect will help MS, but PS3 is $50 cheaper, and all it needs to do, all I think it will do, is match 360 sales WW for Q4 (However EMEAA/Americas will likely favor 360 strongly). Even if PS3 looses any ground this holiday, it won't be much and will be regained in Q1 and Q2 of 2012.

Actually after the PS3 price cut the gap dropped to 3 million. Gears of War 3 only managed to keep it from dropping any furthur.

PS3 should be ahead for most of October, however I don't think any of use can predict Novemeber/December. It's true PS3 has UnCharted, but MS does have Halo, and MP games tend to favor 360, at least during the holidays. The question is, can Kinect fend off the lower PS3 price, or will PS3 and 360 sales roughly level out.

Either way, I don't see 360 regaining much ground.

So 360 needs to average just over 80K per week more than PS3.

What does that mean in practice? Japan we can expect at least 25K in favour of PS3. EMEAA could be even or more likely, even with a 360 price cut, PS3 will lead by at least 10K, possibly more. So it's all down to the Americas, which means in the Americas 360 needs to average about 115K per week MORE sales than PS3.

There's no game, or even suite of games, that will give 360 that kind of lead in Americas. So I think without a price cut there isn't a show of it happening. Extra features like a new dashboard and TV integration really aren't relevant.

Look at this week. PS3 will end up selling slightly more than 360. So that automatically puts 360 >80K behind target. Through the rest of October and at least up to Black Friday 360 is not going to make that 80K WW target. Come 3 December 360 may still be 1 million behind. Though I think it will be between 7 and 800K with black friday putting a big dent in the lead. fist couple of week in December will still be pretty close, I think less than 50K difference. So final 3 weeks of December 360 will probably need to beat PS3 by at least 200K per week, which means 250-300K in Americas. I think Americas is that lopsided now that it will be close, I can see 360 selling 500K in Americas and PS3 only selling 150-200K in those final weeks of December. But I think PS3 has enough of a lead to just edge out 360 for the year.

If there is a price cut (or huge gift card or cash back deals) for 360 then I think 360 will be an absolute beast in the Americas. EMEAA will be fairly even, and Japan will be Japan no matter what MS does.

Of course MS saying they will be number 1 for the year may be talking about financial year. If they cut price early 2012 then for the financial year they may well outsell PS3 and Wii. Even if they are behind PS3 (and who can really count out Wii) at the end of 2011.

You sure about that?

If you mean Americas + EMEAA well there's an easy counterpoint: PS3 beat 360 massively in Japan and EMEAA, it's only Americas which kept it from being an arse whipping. It's about worldwide sales. What happens in each region, or a combination of regions that doesn't cover the world, is secondary.

In reality there are only 2 countries which are keeping 360 in touch with PS3: USA and UK. Certainly there are other countries where 360 has higher LTD and weekly sales than PS3 (Aussie), but they are miniscule markets in the big picture. Only USA and UK have sales levels which have a substantial effect on global sales, and even UK is small potatoes next to USA. Japan can never solely be the difference betwen Xbox and Playstation. PS3 has modest leads in most countries and a big lead in one. 360 has modest leads in a few countries and big leads in 2. And PS3 sells in some countries 360 does not, though I don't know which. Put it all together and, in recent years, it adds up to PS3 selling more than 360.

Digressing. I wonder which way China is going to jump once it opens up. Eventually China will be a bigger console market than USA, just like it will be bigger than the USA in every way (good and bad) eventually. I suspect China could be Xbox territory: mostly because China and Japan are long historical adversaries (kinda like the French and English); and I think there's a lot of Yankophiles (for want of a better word - no offence intended at all, esp. not to Southerners) among the general China populous. Certainly more Chinese who love Americana than who love Japanesiana (is that a word?).

if we go by microsofts and sony's own numbers, than xbox 360 hasnt outsold the ps3 in the past 4 years. some here will go on a "shipped" rage but sony must be consistently shipping more for a reason. i dont see that changing this time round either. next time the official numbers are out, theres going to be adjustments, like there always have been.

Why does michael5 keep saying the PS3 is cheaper than the 360?

Isnt the 360 entry level at $199?

The CoD gaps (360 v PS3) have actually INCREASED with each consecutive game in the 2 series being released. From CoD 4 to CoD MW2 the gap increased, and from CoD WaW to Black Ops the gap also increased. The only time the gaps have "seemed to decrease" was going from an Infinity Ward game to a Treyarch game, because overall people know that the Treyarch games aren't quite up to par and many less 360 players buy in on those versions. I expect the gap for MW3 will again be higher than the gap for MW2.

GAPS (360 lead)
CoD 3 - 1.33m;  CoD WaW - 2.07m;  CoD Black Ops - 2.41m
CoD 4 - 2.84m;  CoD MW2 - 3.3m;  CoD MW3 - ???

Not sure this how reasonable of an approach this is though...

Let's be honest, the 360 does not compete with the PS3 in Japan, full stop.  Lifetime sales, yearly sales, this weeks sales, no matter how you cut it, the PS3 dominates the 360 in Japan.  The total lifetime sales of the 360 n Japan are negligible to the 360's total market and could be removed from thier sales numbers with little impact.  Additionally, the PS3 is available in areas that the 360 is not.  These two factors skew the worldwide numbers...in fact, even you say "PS3 beat 360 massively in Japan and EMEAA, it's only Americas which kept it from being an arse whipping." but that isn't really true, is it?  Take out the 900K lead that Japan has provided the PS3 this year and the sales in area where the 360 is not avaialable and has the EMEAA REALLY been anywhere near an "arse" whipping difference in sales?

Now, I am not saying that Worldwide numbers are not important.  Worldwide install base is an important number and I'm SURE Microsoft would prefer to be much more competitive in Japan.  But picture a scenario where the 360 dominates the American market, ties or wins EMEAA the rest of this year, and only doesn't overtake PS3 sales because of the big difference in sales in Japan.  Do you think Microsoft would look at that as a "worldwide loss"?  Does that ever growing gap in sales in Japan have any effect on the western market and thier install base for the rest of this generation?

All that being said, I would guess that the only way the 360 overtakes the PS3 sales WORLDWIDE this year, is to drop the price.  That might allow the sales in the US and EMEAA to elevate over the holiday season to not only mitigate the losses in Japan, but normalize the sales this year to a higher total level than the PS3.