Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 2012 - *February* Update

[binary solo]

So 360 needs to average just over 80K per week more than PS3.

What does that mean in practice? Japan we can expect at least 25K in favour of PS3. EMEAA could be even or more likely, even with a 360 price cut, PS3 will lead by at least 10K, possibly more. So it's all down to the Americas, which means in the Americas 360 needs to average about 115K per week MORE sales than PS3.

There's no game, or even suite of games, that will give 360 that kind of lead in Americas. So I think without a price cut there isn't a show of it happening. Extra features like a new dashboard and TV integration really aren't relevant.

Look at this week. PS3 will end up selling slightly more than 360. So that automatically puts 360 >80K behind target. Through the rest of October and at least up to Black Friday 360 is not going to make that 80K WW target. Come 3 December 360 may still be 1 million behind. Though I think it will be between 7 and 800K with black friday putting a big dent in the lead. fist couple of week in December will still be pretty close, I think less than 50K difference. So final 3 weeks of December 360 will probably need to beat PS3 by at least 200K per week, which means 250-300K in Americas. I think Americas is that lopsided now that it will be close, I can see 360 selling 500K in Americas and PS3 only selling 150-200K in those final weeks of December. But I think PS3 has enough of a lead to just edge out 360 for the year.

If there is a price cut (or huge gift card or cash back deals) for 360 then I think 360 will be an absolute beast in the Americas. EMEAA will be fairly even, and Japan will be Japan no matter what MS does.

Of course MS saying they will be number 1 for the year may be talking about financial year. If they cut price early 2012 then for the financial year they may well outsell PS3 and Wii. Even if they are behind PS3 (and who can really count out Wii) at the end of 2011.