So we all know about the hype that the Vita is getting in Japan, and the recently announced Monster Hunter games for the 3DS. Events at the TGS all raise an important question. Which will win in Japan? 3DS of Vita? 

Nintendo's side of things

Nintendo beat Sony to the punch with two MH games. They timed them perfectly to counter the Vita's hype. Add in the various niche games like Dynasty Warriors, and Contra, and DQ installments that we still don't know about, and the 3DS has a lot of breathing room in Japan. The sucess of Monster Hunter on the 3DS will depend on the sucess of Nintendo capturing the PSP audience, and we don't know how that will pan out in the future. Nintendo still has one more card to play: mainlline Pokemon games.

Sony's side of things

Sony is building a lot of Vita hype up for the December launch in Japan. MGS Rising, FFX HD, MGS Collection, and so on. The Vita will naturally ride the coattails of the PSP, and probably start off well. Nintendo getting MH4 will probably cause complications for Sony in the future, so what Sony needs to do is secure key exclusives. I think now would be the perfect time to beg Square Enix to port FF vs XIII or the eventual Kingdom Hearts 3 to the VIta to counter Nintendo. The rest of the battle should take care of itself.

3DS has tri-Ace and Fire Emblem

VITA's in trouble

3DS

Nintendo says that SM3DL will marry 3D and 2D Mario. That's why I didn't mention 2D Mario.

One is not on the market and the other just got its ass kicked for 6/7 months. There is no way to even predict at this point. Basing victory on previous ones does no justice. When Vita has been out for 6/7 months and announces games at a press conference. Then revisit this topic. Until then you're wasting your time.

things tend to change so i'm not wagering anything on it but at this point in time i'd wager 3DS wins hands down.

It's obviously 3DS. It already had Pokemon, Mario, and now... Monster Hunter. Sony have to do more than triple time to take out 3DS. Maybe create a game themselves or promote another 3rd party game maybe God Eater to take on Monster Hunter.

3DS because of Monster Hunter and Pokemon; also throw in Zelda and Mario as well. Monster Hunter is hitting the 3DS before Vita comes out, so expect the 3DS to have a huge lead over the Vita.

Now as for the Vita: The problem with MGS Rising, FFX, MGSHD, UMvC3, etc is that they're also coming to the PS3, and I rather get those on PS3 than the Vita due to playing it on bigger screen + better online. Those games would have made the Vita more appealing if they weren't coming to the consoles. Though, it's good for those who haven't played the games yet.

Since story heavy RPG is my favorite genre I highly favor Vita. The size of line-up is also in Vita's favor, and that without being release. But, Nintendo has the bigger blockbusters and is already on the market. So its hard to tell. Not going to pronounce myself more for now.

My heart and brain are with 3DS, but it is pretty unpredictable actually.