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Forums - Movies & TV - The Box-Office Thread.

 

Can Disney beat Universal's record 2015 domestic gross - $2.445 billion?

It will fall short of tha... 4 13.33%
 
Finding Dory, Doctor Stra... 20 66.67%
 
It's going to be very cl... 6 20.00%
 
Total:30
Tower on 13 July 2015
Kowan said:
Tower said:


JW will clearly pass Avengers, it is close enough and is still making enough money that it will easily pass Avengers and should ,ake over 1.6B. But the length of time in theatres isn't a meaningful statistic if you don't connect it to how much it is currently making. The last part of a films run is practically irrelevant.


Longevity is important to a films success. It is also important since many studios extend their films run to get more money, either to surpass a record or to earn a milestone. It could to jump over 100m,200m,500m, and such or to beat other movies. I wouldn't be surprised if Universal and Legendary extends JW's run by adding more screens if it comes really close to Titanic's total gross to beat it. 


Of course longevity is important, but theatres decide what gets shown, not the studios, they can't just keep it in theatres until they reach the numbers they want. If a film is really close then they can give it a minor expansion in a few theatres or give it double showings at drive-ins with a new film, but this could account for a couple of million, and nowhere near 100M (much less 500M, the size of a mid sized blockbuster WW). If JW looks like it will finish a Million under Titanic Uni will probably make sure to track it until it gets past it, if it looks to finish with more like 10-20M less, it will simply end there.



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Wonktonodi on 13 July 2015
Lawlight said:
Kowan said:
spurgeonryan said:

JW will struggle to pass The AVengers.

You're joking right? It passing TA is something that even the most pessimistic box office estimate can't stop. The only way it won't pass or crawl to surpass TA is if Universal and Legendary takes it off theatres worldwide or takes off like 90% of its screens, like today, which is obvioucly not happening. It's only been a month since its release, and it still has a month or two more for its run. How could it possibly not earn a measly $30m more in that time?

JW in one month:

$1.47b

The Avengers lifetime:(more than 5 months in cinemas WW)

$1.52b

 

That's not a fair comparison. JW opened in all territories at the same time.


Then look at a more focused "fair" comparison http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekly&id=usblockbuster.htm

It compares The Avengers, Avatar and JWs domestic weekly totals with alligned launches. I'll just be pointing out a few things compared to the avengers. It was up the first 3 weeks by almost 51 million. Week 4 it lost 10 million of that lead but it's still 40 million ahead. This week it will probably be up again unless JW gets less than 10 million combined monday to Thursday.

Something else that that chart shows that is interesting is how long it took Avengers to get it's total. 22 weeks and while for the most part it was dropping off every week, though come week 18 it had a big jump, it expanded from 123 theaters to 1705 and it's total grew from 164,000 to 2.7 million.



Lawlight on 13 July 2015
Wonktonodi said:
Lawlight said:
Kowan said:
spurgeonryan said:

JW will struggle to pass The AVengers.

You're joking right? It passing TA is something that even the most pessimistic box office estimate can't stop. The only way it won't pass or crawl to surpass TA is if Universal and Legendary takes it off theatres worldwide or takes off like 90% of its screens, like today, which is obvioucly not happening. It's only been a month since its release, and it still has a month or two more for its run. How could it possibly not earn a measly $30m more in that time?

JW in one month:

$1.47b

The Avengers lifetime:(more than 5 months in cinemas WW)

$1.52b

 

That's not a fair comparison. JW opened in all territories at the same time.


Then look at a more focused "fair" comparison http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekly&id=usblockbuster.htm

It compares The Avengers, Avatar and JWs domestic weekly totals with alligned launches. I'll just be pointing out a few things compared to the avengers. It was up the first 3 weeks by almost 51 million. Week 4 it lost 10 million of that lead but it's still 40 million ahead. This week it will probably be up again unless JW gets less than 10 million combined monday to Thursday.

Something else that that chart shows that is interesting is how long it took Avengers to get it's total. 22 weeks and while for the most part it was dropping off every week, though come week 18 it had a big jump, it expanded from 123 theaters to 1705 and it's total grew from 164,000 to 2.7 million.

That's US only.



Wonktonodi on 13 July 2015
Lawlight said:
Wonktonodi said:


Then look at a more focused "fair" comparison http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekly&id=usblockbuster.htm

It compares The Avengers, Avatar and JWs domestic weekly totals with alligned launches. I'll just be pointing out a few things compared to the avengers. It was up the first 3 weeks by almost 51 million. Week 4 it lost 10 million of that lead but it's still 40 million ahead. This week it will probably be up again unless JW gets less than 10 million combined monday to Thursday.

Something else that that chart shows that is interesting is how long it took Avengers to get it's total. 22 weeks and while for the most part it was dropping off every week, though come week 18 it had a big jump, it expanded from 123 theaters to 1705 and it's total grew from 164,000 to 2.7 million.

That's US only.

I did mention domestic in my post. As well as saying more focused, since you wanted fair. While it's only the largest market it does help show the clear picture that JW won't be struggling to pass the avengers. As well as how it made the money faster.  



Kowan on 13 July 2015
Lawlight said:
Kowan said:
spurgeonryan said:

JW will struggle to pass The AVengers.

You're joking right? It passing TA is something that even the most pessimistic box office estimate can't stop. The only way it won't pass or crawl to surpass TA is if Universal and Legendary takes it off theatres worldwide or takes off like 90% of its screens, like today, which is obvioucly not happening. It's only been a month since its release, and it still has a month or two more for its run. How could it possibly not earn a measly $30m more in that time?

JW in one month:

$1.47b

The Avengers lifetime:(more than 5 months in cinemas WW)

$1.52b

 

That's not a fair comparison. JW opened in all territories at the same time.

By this time, at the same time, both TA and JW have already opened to all but one territory, Japan. So that's no longer an excuse. If you line their totals at the same time WORLDWIDE, JW would still be ahead by a good margin.

Here's the comparison:

5 weeks in(since release in US):

Jurassic World

domestic: 590.68m

International(all markets except Japan): 877.2m

The Avengers:

Domestic: 552.95m

International(all markets except Japan and Bangladesh): 781.6m

What's even more impressive is that JW had the disadvantage in the Chinese market since it was affected by the summer blackout on movies. Meaning it only had one month until it is removed from all theatres in China. All hollywood movies were banned, so no new foreign films are allowed to be released in that blackout span, and current foreign films already showing will only have a month. Both The Avengers and Age of Ultron was not affected by this.



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Tower on 14 July 2015
Kowan said:

By this time, at the same time, both TA and JW have already opened to all but one territory, Japan. So that's no longer an excuse. If you line their totals at the same time WORLDWIDE, JW would still be ahead by a good margin.

Here's the comparison:

5 weeks in(since release in US):

Jurassic World

domestic: 590.68m

International(all markets except Japan): 877.2m

The Avengers:

Domestic: 552.95m

International(all markets except Japan and Bangladesh): 781.6m

What's even more impressive is that JW had the disadvantage in the Chinese market since it was affected by the summer blackout on movies. Meaning it only had one month until it is removed from all theatres in China. All hollywood movies were banned, so no new foreign films are allowed to be released in that blackout span, and current foreign films already showing will only have a month. Both The Avengers and Age of Ultron was not affected by this.

You don't need to allign launches, you just have to look at how much it made so far, how much it made in ts last weekend and add on Japan to its numbers and see that it is obviously passing Avengers. This isn't close.

But the stuff about China is wrong, (almost) all Hollywood films run for a month before being removed, including Avengers and Ultron. The blackout just means that new Hollywood films can't open during that time, which obviously doesn't apply to JW. If anything, the blackout helped JW by stopping other films from opening against it and shortening its legs.



Kowan on 14 July 2015
Tower said:
Kowan said:

By this time, at the same time, both TA and JW have already opened to all but one territory, Japan. So that's no longer an excuse. If you line their totals at the same time WORLDWIDE, JW would still be ahead by a good margin.

Here's the comparison:

5 weeks in(since release in US):

Jurassic World

domestic: 590.68m

International(all markets except Japan): 877.2m

The Avengers:

Domestic: 552.95m

International(all markets except Japan and Bangladesh): 781.6m

What's even more impressive is that JW had the disadvantage in the Chinese market since it was affected by the summer blackout on movies. Meaning it only had one month until it is removed from all theatres in China. All hollywood movies were banned, so no new foreign films are allowed to be released in that blackout span, and current foreign films already showing will only have a month. Both The Avengers and Age of Ultron was not affected by this.

You don't need to allign launches, you just have to look at how much it made so far, how much it made in ts last weekend and add on Japan to its numbers and see that it is obviously passing Avengers. This isn't close.

But the stuff about China is wrong, (almost) all Hollywood films run for a month before being removed, including Avengers and Ultron. The blackout just means that new Hollywood films can't open during that time, which obviously doesn't apply to JW. If anything, the blackout helped JW by stopping other films from opening against it and shortening its legs.

Both Avengers movie had longer runs than JW though, even Furious 7 had a much longer time in the cinemas. Not to mention the fact that JW was still performing great when it got taken off cinemas as compared to both Avengers movies(they were both barely earning anymore). Aligning them helpsespecially when you're comparing them. It gives a more specific comparison and you would be able to estimate when each may outgross the other or how many much more can the other earn. 



Tower on 14 July 2015
Kowan said:
Tower said:

You don't need to allign launches, you just have to look at how much it made so far, how much it made in ts last weekend and add on Japan to its numbers and see that it is obviously passing Avengers. This isn't close.

But the stuff about China is wrong, (almost) all Hollywood films run for a month before being removed, including Avengers and Ultron. The blackout just means that new Hollywood films can't open during that time, which obviously doesn't apply to JW. If anything, the blackout helped JW by stopping other films from opening against it and shortening its legs.

Both Avengers movie had longer runs than JW though, even Furious 7 had a much longer time in the cinemas. Not to mention the fact that JW was still performing great when it got taken off cinemas as compared to both Avengers movies(they were both barely earning anymore). Aligning them helpsespecially when you're comparing them. It gives a more specific comparison and you would be able to estimate when each may outgross the other or how many much more can the other earn. 

No, Avengers, AOU and Furious 7 all had a month, just like JW.



Kowan on 14 July 2015
Tower said:
Kowan said:

Both Avengers movie had longer runs than JW though, even Furious 7 had a much longer time in the cinemas. Not to mention the fact that JW was still performing great when it got taken off cinemas as compared to both Avengers movies(they were both barely earning anymore). Aligning them helpsespecially when you're comparing them. It gives a more specific comparison and you would be able to estimate when each may outgross the other or how many much more can the other earn. 

No, Avengers, AOU and Furious 7 all had a month, just like JW.


They had more than a month. Not exactly that MUCH longer but still more than one month. Age of ultron had more than 40 days, Avengers had almost 40 days and Furious 7 got 38. JW had 29. 



Mordred11 on 14 July 2015
Kowan said:
Tower said:

No, Avengers, AOU and Furious 7 all had a month, just like JW.


They had more than a month. Not exactly that MUCH longer but still more than one month. Age of ultron had more than 40 days, Avengers had almost 40 days and Furious 7 got 38. JW had 29. 

With at least a week more on the market, JW would have made around 20% more due to its high demand at the time of closure.