In the console world, there is endless speculation about the immediate future: X Company will dominate in Y Timeframe; Z Game is Delayed to Quarter Q. Here is my vision of the far future in console gaming: ten years away or more.

Despite the efforts of the Wii to refocus on fun and innovative interaction, even Nintendo will be forced to incorporate multimedia features in their next console to avoid falling behind. As industry networking and multimedia distribution standards improve (TV over IP; downloaded games), consoles will increasingly get their content from the internet.

Both of these trends will cause consoles to have very complex embedded operating systems to cope with all the data and the DRM that must be put in place to stop pirating of expensive downloaded console games and HD movie rental. At the same time, the number of I/O protocols is increasing so future consoles will have even more SKUs than present with varying standards like Wi-fi, Displayport, HDMI, USB, SD Cards, Memory sticks, HD optical media, other removable flash storage, Infrared, Ethernet, Bluetooth, various controllers and peripherals and many future standards too.

As games become increasingly complex to develop,third-party publishers will have to put games on even more platforms to cover costs. This is not necessarily bad, but the crossover between PC and Xbox 360 at present will expand until it is not really necessary to buy both to get the experience. In addition, gamers will begin to expect longer lives from their games to compensate for the rising cost of purchase - this necessitates bonus content and bugfixes.

There are four primary advantages of a home console over a computer: platform consistency, price, exclusive games and lack of sudden instability like PC patches are prone too. As you can see, all four of these pillars are threatened by the direction Microsoft, Sony and even Nintendo (they have made some progress toward it compared to the last generation too) are going in.

So, once another few generations have passed, console gaming will sadly fade as PC-only setups become the simpler alternative to PC-and-console setups.

Microsoft will declare victory for their grand strategy of eliminating consoles as competition to sales of Windows PCs. Sony will be forced into niche electronics not covered by the ever-broader range of the PC being connected to screens and devices around the home, and their PSP line will become more of a mobile PC than a games handheld (indeed, is this not the case already?) Third-parties will begin to transition their console franchises to the PC, perhaps with proprietary peripherals to keep the feel. They will also benefit from the sale of Console Game IP from Microsoft and Sony. As PCs and consoles merge, proprietary content delivery systems will proliferate as the online delivery of console games is accepted as the PC philosophy.

Nintendo is a little different. They only have console gaming as their business, refuse to sell their IP and have a talent from remaining profitable with small sales. I believe they will focus on handheld gaming, with no multimedia features and a focus on fun and innovation in which areas there is infinite room to expand and little competition from the PC or PSP lines. We will see the 'big' console titles on handhelds with as much detail and depth as the 'big' titles on the Wii now.

In conclusion, the death of home consoles will be slow, profitable and not bad for the consumer, but it will be inevitable. My opinion is that as consoles fade, PC game "platforms" will be created from the successors or continuations of Windows NT, Mac OS X and Linux.

 

Good read but I don't agree:

As far as I know almost everyone has a PC and yet CD-players, DVD-players, consoles etc. are being sold. PC's will never fully take over consumer electronics functions because

1. some people want quality (like a good CD/Amplifier/Vinylplayer combination), PC's don't provide this by nature, since everything is digital and most consumer electronic functions are not not a core function of a PC without extra expences. (Good souncards are expensive for example and still don't match real amplifiers/speaker combination).
2. Most people see their PC as a WORK station, used for documents/internet, people don't want to use there computer for everything.
3. Putting a DVD in your DVD player is way more convenient than using Windows/software stuff for everything. People want convenient equipment, not a mouse/keyboard combination to do everything.

Gameconsoles definitely will become more and more functional with the internet and have more discspace and function, but just like today the market for different home consoles will exist because people love to play games on their TV instead of on a PC where they have to install files and be attached to a keyboard/mouse.

BengaBenga said: Good read but I don't agree: As far as I know almost everyone has a PC and yet CD-players, DVD-players, consoles etc. are being sold. PC's will never fully take over consumer electronics functions because 1. some people want quality (like a good CD/Amplifier/Vinylplayer combination), PC's don't provide this by nature, since everything is digital and most consumer electronic functions are not not a core function of a PC without extra expences. (Good souncards are expensive for example and still don't match real amplifiers/speaker combination). Everything that can be done in hardware can be done in software. It is only a matter of time really. 2. Most people see their PC as a WORK station, used for documents/internet, people don't want to use there computer for everything. That would be why sales of top-end gaming video cards have never been higher, Windows Home Server for multimedia sharing has been released and media extenders have never beenn more popular. Just because your PC is boring doesn't mean other people's must be. 3. Putting a DVD in your DVD player is way more convenient than using Windows/software stuff for everything. People want convenient equipment, not a mouse/keyboard combination to do everything. That's you can put DVDs in my computer and use a media remote to control it. Optical media will die in favour of downloaded content - there will be TVs that link to your PC as a dumb display device channeling remote input to the PC and streaming downloaded movies from the PC. Gameconsoles definitely will become more and more functional with the internet and have more discspace and function, but just like today the market for different home consoles will exist because people love to play games on their TV instead of on a PC where they have to install files and be attached to a keyboard/mouse. No. The PC will have like a Linux package manager (one-click invisible download and install) and then stream the game to your TV if you want per point 3.

The reason why it hasn't happened yet is proprietary standards. I want a media network in my home, but tyere's o many proprietary, DRM'd and conflicting standards that I can't do it. When open standards like Displayport, OGG Theora and Vorbis, and Linux dominate it will be easier and much cheaper to do so without buying closed software and hardware to do the same job.

Sony or MS develops games controlled directly by the brain to counteract Nintendo's Wiimote strategy. And now their latest consoles support 3240p giving a whole new meaning to realistic and life-like graphics. Also their new consoles comes with a built-in Cosmic Disc player which can handle 500 Terabytes of data and utilizes a cosmic ray laser. These consoles comes in different SKU's ranging from the economy 20 Terabyte solid-state hard-drive, to the high-end 100 Terabyte model.

Meanwhile, Nintedo has already developed Nintendo Dreams, where games can be played in your mind, even when you're asleep, giving a total immersive experience.

I will have to refute a number of your points.

There is a definite trend that consoles are becoming more like PCs as they evolve, as 360 and PS3 have shown, but i believe that part of the Wii's success is due to backlash over this issue.

For the typical consumer, they want the sense that their purchase will get them the same game and features as everyone else who is buying that game, and that they won't lose features depending on how current their PC is.

Along with this is the game controller. While, in time, some PCs may adopt the use of controllers similar to the 360 and Wii, the one thing that PC has never been able to successfully do is standardize ANYTHING.
Beyond the technical specs, you still have keyboard layout, even mouse buttons or if a mouse is even present or if a touchpad is being used instead, none of these things are standardized and there are no signs of that ever changing. PCs thrive on the wide variety of standards and customization that are available to offer.

Consoles are the exact opposite of this, and thrive on the concept that when people buy them, the game they play will be designed specifically for that console and for the controller of that game and not require them to fiddle around with mapping 5000 buttons onto their mouse and try to keep their fingers on the right buttons of the keyboard.

I do agree that Nintendo will eventually update their console to higher technical specs, but I don't believe they will be forced to do this. They are merely following along with the current financially feasible technical advancements, rather than trying to push the envelope. Wii can still be hooked up to a HDTV so there really isn't this odd pressure that everyone seems to think is on Nintendo to catch up.

As it stands, i don't think Wii or DS have a chance of being sucked into the PC world. Though IF it does somehow happen, i can only see this happening if someone manages to develop a Wiimote for the PC that actually becomes standard. At this point, I think Nintendo would shift their focus to an intermediary console, some sort of fusion of the DS and Wii that had functionality similar to the PSP which would let you treat it as a home console or as a portable console and would function well as both.

Grey Acumen said: I will have to refute a number of your points. There is a definite trend that consoles are becoming more like PCs as they evolve, as 360 and PS3 have shown, but i believe that part of the Wii's success is due to backlash over this issue. Yes, but it is a slow and inevitable trend. That's why i'm saying 10-15 years unlike the "Wii HD in 2009" crowd. For the typical consumer, they want the sense that their purchase will get them the same game and features as everyone else who is buying that game, and that they won't lose features depending on how current their PC is. Don't you see that happening already with all the SKUs, firmware updates and console game patches/ports with exclusive content? Along with this is the game controller. While, in time, some PCs may adopt the use of controllers similar to the 360 and Wii, the one thing that PC has never been able to successfully do is standardize ANYTHING. Beyond the technical specs, you still have keyboard layout, even mouse buttons or if a mouse is even present or if a touchpad is being used instead, none of these things are standardized and there are no signs of that ever changing. PCs thrive on the wide variety of standards and customization that are available to offer. Yes, that will be the sticking point, and I think simple controls will save the console industry - but as handhelds. Consoles are the exact opposite of this, and thrive on the concept that when people buy them, the game they play will be designed specifically for that console and for the controller of that game and not require them to fiddle around with mapping 5000 buttons onto their mouse and try to keep their fingers on the right buttons of the keyboard. Proprietary input devices will proliferate too - I think we'll see tie-ins between content delivery and the controller, like the "Steam controller". Again, yes, that will keep people on consoles for longer. I do agree that Nintendo will eventually update their console to higher technical specs, but I don't believe they will be forced to do this. They are merely following along with the current financially feasible technical advancements, rather than trying to push the envelope. Wii can still be hooked up to a HDTV so there really isn't this odd pressure that everyone seems to think is on Nintendo to catch up. No, I think the be-fun-and-innovate will be enough to defeat higher specs for a few generations, but not forever. As it stands, i don't think Wii or DS have a chance of being sucked into the PC world. Though IF it does somehow happen, i can only see this happening if someone manages to develop a Wiimote for the PC that actually becomes standard. At this point, I think Nintendo would shift their focus to an intermediary console, some sort of fusion of the DS and Wii that had functionality similar to the PSP which would let you treat it as a home console or as a portable console and would function well as both. Of course not. nintendo are a very controlling company and I think the Wii and DS lines will be merged into DS.

 

The success of the Wii casts a lot of doubt over a number of your assertions. The system has been designed with a few nifty multimedia functions, but for the most part is just a game console. The ability to play movies, download TV shows, and all that other jazz has done nothing to hurt its sales, and this is something that will be noticed during the development of the next generation. If anything, I would bet that there will be less focus on multimedia during the next gen as consoles go more towards simple game machines.

I also don't understand why you say there will be different models needed in the next gen. Even if they did have to include all the stuff you listed there is no reason to create a thousand models that only have one of them. The Xbox 360 seems to support nearly all of it with their most popular model. If not for their attempts to push technical specs further than needed this gen (so far) then they could have a cheaper console as well.

Then we get to the complex games costing more to develop whch is just plain false. I would argue that the Wii currently has the most complex input to account for currently and it is the cheapest to develop for. What has pushed game development costs this gen is the enormous leap they are attempting to make graphically. They are pushing the envelope far too hard, and thus making full use of the technology is extremely expensive currently. In a 3 years I would not be surprised if the cost of a PS3 game is near half what it is today.

Even if they do rise though that does not even come close to insure your prediction will come true. Look at blockbusters like Halo 3. The game is making buckets of money and would be profitable even with they had doubled the budget I bet. As the market for games gets larger you can expect to see people buy games in these larger quantities. The potential number of sales being far larger will make it a lot easier to justify exclucivity.

The idea that PC gaming will eventually become the only form has been around since console games started, and it has only gotten more ridiculous as time has gone on. They are two completely different experiences and certain game genres simply do not translate well from one to the other.

Platformers are god awful on a PC, and fighting games are essentially unplayable. I know a few people will jump on this and say they love their PC platformers and fighters, but the genres are only really supported in any major way on consoles because that is where there is a market for them. MMOs, RTS, and (surprisingly) to a lesser extent FPS are PC games. Game controllers just are not ideal inputs for these types of games. There is a large market for laots of games of the types I listed, and they are just a few examples of games that would not survive a transition to solely console or PC gaming.

The Wii, and PS3 to some extent are also showing why consoles will last a good long while as well. They are creating new inputs that a PC does not have by default. This means there are games that can be made for a console that simply cannot be made on a PC. The industry is moving more towards such unique inputs as well. Microsoft is researching motion based controls, and it is unlikely that Nintendo or Sony are going to abandon the concept.

In conclusion, the Wii is a shining example of why you are wrong. The industry is moving away from being like PCs and not towards it.

@Gnizmo

You keep thinking of a PC as it is today. Tomorrow, the PC will be the multimedia streaming centre and you will sit in front of a large TV as you have always done and play platformers with a proprietary controller. There will be no need for consoles, because the PC will be a home server streaming content to all forms of interactive devices in the home. You will never click into games from the desktop.

Name 5 games with proprietary controllers that are extremely succesful. I know of Guitar Hero, DDR, and to a lesser extent Sing Star. Extra devices do not normally sell well because they cost more and no one likes that.



If it works now, why would it not work in the future? Or are you assuming that fun and innovative means zero technical specs increase? The next Nintendo console will likely be nearly as strong as the 360, and as cheap as the Wii is now. People are not going to suddenly become technophiles in the future. Such changes in public opinion take a long long long time and a general shift in sociatal norms that is not currently present.



The different models of consoles are nothing even close to the differences between just PCs. Nearly every game made will play on every model of a console it is made for. That has not been true of PCs for as long as I have had one. There isn't a 360 model with twice the graphical power of the base model, and there never will be. The trend towards multiple models I think will die in the next gen as it has not seemed to work out all that well for either Sony or Microsoft.

"The next Nintendo console will likely be nearly as strong as the 360"

Precisely. And the next one after that will be as powerful as the 3rd Xbox, and then you have an equal gradient of increasing specs to the Xbox, just one step behind. So we still reach the "console singularity", except Nintendo does so 5 years late.