The Distant Future of Console Gaming

[Gnizmo]

The success of the Wii casts a lot of doubt over a number of your assertions. The system has been designed with a few nifty multimedia functions, but for the most part is just a game console. The ability to play movies, download TV shows, and all that other jazz has done nothing to hurt its sales, and this is something that will be noticed during the development of the next generation. If anything, I would bet that there will be less focus on multimedia during the next gen as consoles go more towards simple game machines.

I also don't understand why you say there will be different models needed in the next gen. Even if they did have to include all the stuff you listed there is no reason to create a thousand models that only have one of them. The Xbox 360 seems to support nearly all of it with their most popular model. If not for their attempts to push technical specs further than needed this gen (so far) then they could have a cheaper console as well.

Then we get to the complex games costing more to develop whch is just plain false. I would argue that the Wii currently has the most complex input to account for currently and it is the cheapest to develop for. What has pushed game development costs this gen is the enormous leap they are attempting to make graphically. They are pushing the envelope far too hard, and thus making full use of the technology is extremely expensive currently. In a 3 years I would not be surprised if the cost of a PS3 game is near half what it is today.

Even if they do rise though that does not even come close to insure your prediction will come true. Look at blockbusters like Halo 3. The game is making buckets of money and would be profitable even with they had doubled the budget I bet. As the market for games gets larger you can expect to see people buy games in these larger quantities. The potential number of sales being far larger will make it a lot easier to justify exclucivity.

The idea that PC gaming will eventually become the only form has been around since console games started, and it has only gotten more ridiculous as time has gone on. They are two completely different experiences and certain game genres simply do not translate well from one to the other.

Platformers are god awful on a PC, and fighting games are essentially unplayable. I know a few people will jump on this and say they love their PC platformers and fighters, but the genres are only really supported in any major way on consoles because that is where there is a market for them. MMOs, RTS, and (surprisingly) to a lesser extent FPS are PC games. Game controllers just are not ideal inputs for these types of games. There is a large market for laots of games of the types I listed, and they are just a few examples of games that would not survive a transition to solely console or PC gaming.

The Wii, and PS3 to some extent are also showing why consoles will last a good long while as well. They are creating new inputs that a PC does not have by default. This means there are games that can be made for a console that simply cannot be made on a PC. The industry is moving more towards such unique inputs as well. Microsoft is researching motion based controls, and it is unlikely that Nintendo or Sony are going to abandon the concept.

In conclusion, the Wii is a shining example of why you are wrong. The industry is moving away from being like PCs and not towards it.