@Gnizmo

I have no hard evidence - it is an opinion piece and I don't think there's enough evidence either way to call it. This is one take. Yours is also possible. I can't really dispute further without evidence as you say.

Certainly the Linux-argument is true. However, when the dominant players with unlimited cash reserves in an industry decide they want something, they pretty much get their way. Nintendo alone can't stop it, and I see little evidence of third parties taking Nintendo seriously at this point. That is all.

Indeed, I was talking about your average computer setup, because the average person is the mass consumer market. There are probably people on this forum that use their computer to toas their bread, but I wasn't talking about that. I know what you described is perfectly well possible on a PC, but not without a setup that requires long wires or wireless conections, what the average person doesn't want to mingle with. I don't really blame them, and I don't see it changing, because the alternative works and is convenient.

MythTV is awesome.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MythTV

There are several Linux distributions with complete embedded MythTV setups out of the box (e.g. Mythbuntu or Mythdora) and all you have to do is connect the devices really (or that's the goal).

So, when Dell or HP starts selling £200 MythTV-or-similar-setup desktops (It's coming), it will be just as easy to have a DVR or one of those, except you can use the Linux for one everything else too.

 You better believe Capcom is taking them seriously. Even still, if no third parties took the Wii seriously and it still was a resounding success that brought in tons of cash you better believe Microsoft and Sony would take notice. Microsoft launched early this time because they attributed the success of the PS2 to the one year head start, and are working on a motion based controller because they attribute the success of the Wii to it. I bet their sell at a loss plan also came because they thought Sony's buisness model was key to their success.

I could also list a ton of other examples where a simple device won out over the superior competitor. I see why you came to the conclusions you did, and have seen the arguement a thousand times which is why I can argue against it so well. The fear of consoles morphing into PCs is as old as the console market itself, and there have constantly been little signs that it will soon be here. The thousand add-ons of the Genesis, or the inclusion of a harddrive with the Xbox. The expandable ram slot on the 64 was also a clearly PC concept. None of these seem to stick very well though. Well, the harddrive probably will but it is good for non-PC hybridization reasons. People buy consoles because they want something different from their computer, and so long as someone offers that something different console gaming will stay alive.

 You are almost absolutely right. The only minor correction is that I would bet most computers can do what I describe. Give me your DVD player's composite cord and 10 minutes and I can make it work. But you are absolutely right, and I absolutely agree that most people simply don't want to mess with it. The average person simply has no interest in trying to replicate my set-up even if a lot of them think it is awesome when they see it.

 With bittorent you don't even need to instal linux and can have it done for free with a lower quality video card. Any card capable of TV out hooked into a computer capable of downloading files can get the set-up going with any OS you choose.

Mythtv is unbelievably awesome though. It gives your old computer a great new use. 

Even I didn't know that. How on earth are those non-technically-minded families supposed to figure it out?

Exactly one of the main points I was making. People don't bother figuring out everything their computer is capable of because it is too technical and that creates a nasty barrier to entry.

Well, we appear to be in agreement. This is awkward.

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I accept that the real scenario will likely be somewhere between my 'console doomsday', that made a good topic despite not being self-consistent, and your ideas. OK.

LOL Okay, I give you props for that.

I will pose this idea to maybe give a boost to the conversation about this.

One thing I found you focusing too much on was that the consoles were becoming too much like PCs, but actually, the real issue that I seee occuring in the future is that PCs are beginning to recognize that people want simplicity as well. I think as technology becomes more advanced, steps will be taken to create more simplified and pliable setups. USB has already basically made "Plug n play" into a standard. If you built a PC for it, you could practically have every component connected through a USB. Everything becomes exchangeable and upgradable by simply removing the old version and plugging in a new one.

I see this idea being extended in the future to the point that we have a combination of USB(or some future version of it) and wireless that allows creating household setups FAR simplier. Right now, not having proper specs is a problem for PC games, but in the future, I see this beign as simple as identifying teh component that needs updated, and then buying a new one.

At this point, PC setups will begin working on projects to create quantity over quality chains, where instead of getting the most upgraded component available, you can get multiple lower versions of that same component and chain them together, much like having two harddrives set up in raid 0 to act as 1 harddrive. or getting two 1GB ram instead of 1 2GB, except this will be increased to the point where if you want, you can buy 17 or 200 1GB ram if that's what you want.

Once you reach this point, people will be able to upgrade their PCs more easily and more cost effectively, thus making it far easier for them to meet teh specs of games they want to play. This point is when I se ePC gaming becoming competetive with console gaming, is when the issue of being able to meet the requirement of the game becomes an easy and hassle free issue.