Metal Gear Solid isn't a game where install base matters, since it is a game where its core fanbase will buy a system to play it. It's the same type of thing for Halo, Final Fantasy, Smash Bros, etc. the elite top-end franchises.

The games that benefit from higher install bases are games like Ratchet and Clank. Games that are very good/great, but won't make somebody go out and buy the system just to play it. But, if/when they do get the system, they will pick it up or try it.

Whether MGS4 is released to a 15 Million install base or 30 million, I expect its sales would be around the same on the PS3. (although sales would be *slightly* higher on a bigger install base)

tombi123 said: @GGE Are you completely stupid? 5 PS3 games are already over 1M, Motorstorm and R:FoM are over 2M. Fifa 08, NES Pro Street and Uncharted will sell 1M soon.

You count bundled games? Even with those bundled games, 5 million sellers (two of which are bundles) is a very poor showing for a console that has been on the market for 14 months.   And Pro Street (0.78 million) and Uncharted (0.68 million) aren't particularly close to being million sellers yet.  There will probably be 20 Wii million sellers before those two join the PS3 ranks.

"Though unconfirmed, the rumor makes sense. In 2005, Capcom released Resident Evil 4 on PS2, a year after the once-exclusive GameCube game hit stores, as Nintendo failed to sell a satisfactory number of consoles. Similarly, Sony has so far been unable to meet sales expectations of the PS3."

Are you kidding me? Failed to meet expectations? Its outselling the 360 weekly in worldwide sales. Its no Wii, but its definatley not doing as bad as it was in 2006. This article is BS. By the time MGS releases, which is rumored to be in June 2008, there will be around 12-13 million PS3's in homes. I thought the last time this came up, it was debunked because of the specialized in game functions of the sixaxis controller? But I did hear that MS is copying motion control, so the rumor does have more weight. I don't know what to believe anymore, I just hope the PS3 continues doing well.

Stats87 said: Metal Gear Solid isn't a game where install base matters, since it is a game where its core fanbase will buy a system to play it. It's the same type of thing for Halo, Final Fantasy, Smash Bros, etc. the elite top-end franchises. The games that benefit from higher install bases are games like Ratchet and Clank. Games that are very good/great, but won't make somebody go out and buy the system just to play it. But, if/when they do get the system, they will pick it up or try it. Whether MGS4 is released to a 15 Million install base or 30 million, I expect its sales would be around the same on the PS3. (although sales would be *slightly* higher on a bigger install base)

People make me laugh. I won't comment on MGS4 on 360 because I just don't care but I will say it's amazing how much faith people put in MGS4. It's a big game but it's not that big and people hyping this game up a lot more than they should. These same people are going to be very disappointed when two months after the game releases sales are going to be surprisingly low (to them). I'm not saying MGS4 is a bad game, I'm just saying it's not going to make the kind of impact you think it will.

MrPickles said: Stats87 said: Can I be shown one example ever where the port that arrived 6 months - 1 year after sold well? Sure. As I said before, it's called "Resident Evil 4". In this skit, Sony was the big bad guy stealing Nintendo's lifesaving exclusive. It sold very well.

 alright, can I be shown two? =)

I think that is a bit different though, since there was an uber-huge difference in install base. But the PS2 version still only sold 300k more. Plus the Playstation had a bigger history in Resident Evil gaming. The Xbox got Substance, but that did quite poorly if my memory serves me correctly. (but that wasn't surprising since it when from giant install base to small install base)

I still don't think MGS would sell well at all on the 360, especially if it came out a year later. MGS has its best sales in Europe (where Sony is really picking it up compared to the 360), it would sell terribly in Japan and would do decently in USA. (but even then I think a lot of people will have already bought it)

@TheBigFatJ

Motorstorm and Resistance hit 1M before being bundled. Just because a game is bundled in the US doesn't mean it is bundled everywhere and is the only reason why a game sells well.

twesterm said: Stats87 said: Metal Gear Solid isn't a game where install base matters, since it is a game where its core fanbase will buy a system to play it. It's the same type of thing for Halo, Final Fantasy, Smash Bros, etc. the elite top-end franchises. The games that benefit from higher install bases are games like Ratchet and Clank. Games that are very good/great, but won't make somebody go out and buy the system just to play it. But, if/when they do get the system, they will pick it up or try it. Whether MGS4 is released to a 15 Million install base or 30 million, I expect its sales would be around the same on the PS3. (although sales would be *slightly* higher on a bigger install base)   People make me laugh. I won't comment on MGS4 on 360 because I just don't care but I will say it's amazing how much faith people put in MGS4. It's a big game but it's not that big and people hyping this game up a lot more than they should. These same people are going to be very disappointed when two months after the game releases sales are going to be surprisingly low (to them). I'm not saying MGS4 is a bad game, I'm just saying it's not going to make the kind of impact you think it will

Do you even understand what I'm saying? Obviously not. This has nothing to do with faith in a videogame, try re-reading my post. Maybe you will grasp it the second time around.

Not that big of a game? The last 3 games have sold around a combined 18+ million...yeah that's nothing

If you're still having trouble, I'm saying that for MGS, install base doesn't matter that much when it comes to sales.

Stats87 said: MrPickles said: Stats87 said: Can I be shown one example ever where the port that arrived 6 months - 1 year after sold well? Sure. As I said before, it's called "Resident Evil 4". In this skit, Sony was the big bad guy stealing Nintendo's lifesaving exclusive. It sold very well. alright, can I be shown two? =) I think that is a bit different though, since there was an uber-huge difference in install base. But the PS2 version still only sold 300k more. Plus the Playstation had a bigger history in Resident Evil gaming. The Xbox got Substance, but that did quite poorly if my memory serves me correctly. (but that wasn't surprising since it when from giant install base to small install base) I still don't think MGS would sell well at all on the 360, especially if it came out a year later. MGS has its best sales in Europe (where Sony is really picking it up compared to the 360), it would sell terribly in Japan and would do decently in USA. (but even then I think a lot of people will have already bought it)

Oblivion is doing well on the PS3, though I honestly don't know why. The 360 at least has easy achievements and the PC is the far superior version with user created content that fixes all the things wrong with that game. The PS3 version really doesn't have much going for it but at least it's doing well.

Stats87 said: twesterm said: Stats87 said: Metal Gear Solid isn't a game where install base matters, since it is a game where its core fanbase will buy a system to play it. It's the same type of thing for Halo, Final Fantasy, Smash Bros, etc. the elite top-end franchises. The games that benefit from higher install bases are games like Ratchet and Clank. Games that are very good/great, but won't make somebody go out and buy the system just to play it. But, if/when they do get the system, they will pick it up or try it. Whether MGS4 is released to a 15 Million install base or 30 million, I expect its sales would be around the same on the PS3. (although sales would be *slightly* higher on a bigger install base) People make me laugh. I won't comment on MGS4 on 360 because I just don't care but I will say it's amazing how much faith people put in MGS4. It's a big game but it's not that big and people hyping this game up a lot more than they should. These same people are going to be very disappointed when two months after the game releases sales are going to be surprisingly low (to them). I'm not saying MGS4 is a bad game, I'm just saying it's not going to make the kind of impact you think it will Do you even understand what I'm saying? Obviously not. This has nothing to do with faith in a videogame, try re-reading my post. Maybe you will grasp it the second time around. Not that big of a game? The last 3 games have sold around a combined 18+ million...yeah that's nothing

I'm really not going to argue this because it really just won't get us anywhere. I'll just be waiting for all the disappointments in late 2008/early 2009.

i wouldn't be surprised if MGS4 debuts sub 200k on its release in north america.

people overestimate how big this francise is.