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Metal Gear Solid isn't a game where install base matters, since it is a game where its core fanbase will buy a system to play it. It's the same type of thing for Halo, Final Fantasy, Smash Bros, etc. the elite top-end franchises.

The games that benefit from higher install bases are games like Ratchet and Clank. Games that are very good/great, but won't make somebody go out and buy the system just to play it. But, if/when they do get the system, they will pick it up or try it.

Whether MGS4 is released to a 15 Million install base or 30 million, I expect its sales would be around the same on the PS3. (although sales would be *slightly* higher on a bigger install base)