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Forums - Sales Discussion - Console wars -- regression to mean.

Mummelmann on 03 January 2008
Soriku said:
johnlucas said:
le_patriote said:
Ask JL....
He'll know it.
I think 50%...just like the others...
If the Wii production increase...even 55%-60% is not out of reach!

Yes he will and here's my take.

I predicted a surge in Wii hardware output for 2008. I predicted that Wii in 2008 will make the preceding year & piece look like Child's Play with a very tame Chucky. Wii in 2008 will be what is elected (love my election year pun do ya?)and because of this the percentages we will see from Wii will be a MAJORITY of the home console sector of the gamesmarket not just a PLURALITY.

See here: http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Plurality

I really think XBox 360 has peaked with Halo 3. That September NPD told the whole story. A record-breaking game in opening week sales that pushed more units (about double the usually seen output) yet barely outsold the Wii which barely did anything amazing that month unless you count the late August American launch of Metroid Prime 3. And afterwards it had went back to its normal output in the following months not counting the holiday surge.

It sells sure & steady like a tortoise and will receive a sure & steady unit shifts but to count these percentages you have to think about rate. Speed rates of sales. Wii's going from hare to cheetah in 2008 and 360 will remain tortoise with PS3 as snapper turtle. This means the percentages will rise for Wii and drop for 360 & PS3 due to speed of sales. PS3's trying to catchup to 360's level with 360 to try keep them at bay. As they fight it out the PS3 may become even with the 360 if successful or remain at same ratio that exists now if not successful.

In February of 2007 it was about 9:5:2 ~ 360:Wii:PS3 worldwide.

 

9 + 5 + 2 = 16 so we had approximately 9/16 of home console sector of market for XBox 360, 5/16 of market for Wii, & 2/16 of market for PS3.

So in percentage form we had a skosh over 56% for 360, a tidget over 31% for Wii, & a tooraloo above 12% for PS3 (56.25%, 31.25%, 12.5%).

By June when ArsTechnica did that piece on VGC we had these figures:

Now we had about a 10:8:3 ratio of 360, Wii, & PS3.

10 + 8 + 3 = 21 so we had approximately 10/21 for 360, 8/21 for Wii, & 3/21 for PS3.

That's a bit over 47% for 360, about 38% for Wii, & about 14% for PS3.

In 4 short months Wii went from a touch over half of 360's sales to four-fifths of it. This made Wii's percentage jump about 7 points from 31 to 38 with leader 360 dropping 9 points from 56 to 47. PS3 made the jump up 2 percentage points. By June PS3 made its PAL launch which boosted sales a little.

On the charts now at the time of this writing January 2, 2008: Wii stands at 19.20 million with 43.6%, 360 stands at 16.02 million with 36.3%, & PS3 stands at 8.86 million with 20.1%. Look how much ground Wii covered in 6 months from that figure in June. Late June at that. Wii's sales speed overtook the former market leader, 360, who sold at a steady & sure pace and PS3 did things to speed up their momentum.

As a result, Wii went within a year from 31% to near 44%; 360 went from 56% to over 36%; PS3 went from 12% to 20%. 360 went from majority marketshare to plurality marketshare to large minority marketshare all in the course of a year.

It's about sales rate. The speed of sales which push those percentages of the purchase pie. Wii is now a solid 3 million units over 360 thanks to the holidays & this effect will continue to worsen as 360 comes down from the shopping season adrenaline high to receive more normal figures as will the PS3. Wii while also coming down from the thin air heights of the Himalayas will plateau higher than the other two while selling faster creating larger gaps in the sales comparisons. That's when the percentages will get worse.

Wii's playing at fast tempo while 360 & PS3 tempoes like Lawrence Welk. And because I expect a surge for Wii in 2008 as Nintendo realizes the demand & produces accordingly there's no doubt in my mind that Wii will not only see a Majority marketshare this year but a substantial one possibly smelling the 60% range. Of course we're just talking about home console only comparisons (which is only fair to Microsoft since they have no handheld representative). Overall marketshare is already majority Nintendo's and this will only get more pronounced in 2008 with Wii & DS shattering more expectations.

It's about the speed of sales.

John Lucas


After this year, what JL says is fact.

 



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MrMafoo on 03 January 2008
famousringo said:
MrMafoo said:
Adding the Wii into the mix of the “Console War” equation is misleading at best.

I know well over a dozen people who own a Wii, and every one of them has either a 360 or a PS3 as well. I do not know a single person with a Wii who does not have another console of this Generation.

Besides, the only reason why anyone should care if a console sells well, is that games continue to be made for it. If the gaming industry has grown to the point where the 360, Wii, and PS3 can all be successful this generation, then what console sells the most is irrelevant.

 Thanks for reminding me to change my sig.

The last paragraph of your post is the interesting one, but I find it a little idealistic. These things tend to snowball. Though I do think that the trailing consoles this gen have better prospects than they did last gen, simply because the dominant company this gen wasn't the leader last gen and didn't get to market first, like the PS2 did.


The PS2 was not to market first for its generation, the DreamCast was (and was doing quite well). It got overtaken by the PS2 because of exclusive games. The DC had very few, the PS2 had many. People wanted what only the PS2 could provide.

If MS, Nintendo, and Sony can each maintain a large exclusive title library, they will probably all succeed.

My personal feelings is as soon as the number of PS3’s overtake the 360 (probably sometime in 2009), most of the AAA exclusives for the 360 will be gone (aside from Halo).

But, if by the time that happens, there are 50 million 360’s to market; people will be making games for it for a very long time (thus people will still be buying it).