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Forums - Sales Discussion - Console wars -- regression to mean.

ihatejunkmail0 on 02 January 2008

So I just noticed that PS3 now is at 20% market share and it got me thinking:

 For a while now, the PS3 and X360 have been selling at a 1:1 ratio on the world market. And the we has been always somewhere between 2:1 or 3:2 on both those systems.  Given that information (and of course assuming that these ratios remain stable) it seems like the steady state for this generation's console wars through 2008 is

 45% Wii

 30% X360

 25% PS3

With the PS3 always asymptoticly approaching the X360 and eventually pulling even at 25-30% for both.

This is simply a regression to the mean with respect to the relatively stable sales ratio.  Well that's my prediction. Feel free to rave (I know you will).

 



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Avinash_Tyagi on 02 January 2008

This assumes Wii sales will remain constant (unlikely considering Wii has been supply constrained and production of the console is increasing)



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

TheBigFatJ on 02 January 2008

Even if Wii sales remain constant, Xbox 360 and PS3 sales are all but certain to drop to low levels through the first 8 or so months of the year. Last year the Wii outsold the PS3 and 360 combined most months of the year.

If this year is a repeat of that, the Wii will approach 50% in 2008.



Ishy on 02 January 2008

nice... even though i think the Wii will get a 50% market share when this generation is all said and done...



Why not add me on msn... ish_187@hotmail.co.uk

- - - > ¤ « ~ N i n t e n d o ~ » ¤ < - - -
Games purchased since December 30th 2006:
GBA:The Legend of Zelda:The Minish Cap
DS:Lunar Knights, Pokemon Diamond, The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass ,Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, Hotel Dusk:Room 215, Mario vs DK 2: March of the Mini's and Picross DS
PS2: Devil May Cry 3:Dante's Awakening, Shadow of the Colosuss, Sega Mega Drive Collection, XIII , Sonic Mega Collection,Fifa 08 and Fifa 09.
GC:Fight Night Round 2
Wii VC:Super Mario 64 ,Lylat Wars ,Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest, Super Castlevania IV, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Streets of Rage, Kirby's Adventure, Super Metroid, Super Mario Bros. 3, Mega Man 2Street Fighter 2 Turbo: Hyper Fighting,Wave Race 64 and Lost Winds

Wii: Sonic and the Secret Rings, Godfather:Blackhand Edition, Red Steel, Tony Hawks Downhill Jam, Eledees, Rayman Raving Rabbids, Mario Strikers Charged Football,Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, Super Mario Galaxy,House of the Dead 2 and 3 Return, Wii Fit, No More Heroes and Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

X360: Spider Man
PS3: Resistance: Fall of Man

 

 

 

 

MrMafoo on 02 January 2008

Adding the Wii into the mix of the “Console War” equation is misleading at best.

I know well over a dozen people who own a Wii, and every one of them has either a 360 or a PS3 as well. I do not know a single person with a Wii who does not have another console of this Generation.

Besides, the only reason why anyone should care if a console sells well, is that games continue to be made for it. If the gaming industry has grown to the point where the 360, Wii, and PS3 can all be successful this generation, then what console sells the most is irrelevant.



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rudyrsr8 on 02 January 2008

Wii not We



"Like you know"

le_patriote on 02 January 2008

Ask JL....
He'll know it.
I think 50%...just like the others...
If the Wii production increase...even 55%-60% is not out of reach!



Wii ware-Fatal Frame 4-Street Fighter 4-Sonic Unleashed-guitare hero 3-Disaster-wii fit-mario kart-Sadness-Games who actually use Wii Board...i dont know but,...it seem big enough for me.By the way,im a proud owner of P.E.S 2008  Wii and it kill all the other soccer game.

My Wii code:3553-1619-3236-0339

my Brawl Code:0860-2912-9428

le_patriote on 02 January 2008
MrMafoo said:
Adding the Wii into the mix of the “Console War” equation is misleading at best.

I know well over a dozen people who own a Wii, and every one of them has either a 360 or a PS3 as well. I do not know a single person with a Wii who does not have another console of this Generation.

Besides, the only reason why anyone should care if a console sells well, is that games continue to be made for it. If the gaming industry has grown to the point where the 360, Wii, and PS3 can all be successful this generation, then what console sells the most is irrelevant.

Gamecube say: Hello!



Wii ware-Fatal Frame 4-Street Fighter 4-Sonic Unleashed-guitare hero 3-Disaster-wii fit-mario kart-Sadness-Games who actually use Wii Board...i dont know but,...it seem big enough for me.By the way,im a proud owner of P.E.S 2008  Wii and it kill all the other soccer game.

My Wii code:3553-1619-3236-0339

my Brawl Code:0860-2912-9428

Gamerace on 02 January 2008
MrMafoo said:
Adding the Wii into the mix of the “Console War” equation is misleading at best.

I know well over a dozen people who own a Wii, and every one of them has either a 360 or a PS3 as well. I do not know a single person with a Wii who does not have another console of this Generation.

Besides, the only reason why anyone should care if a console sells well, is that games continue to be made for it. If the gaming industry has grown to the point where the 360, Wii, and PS3 can all be successful this generation, then what console sells the most is irrelevant.

Out of all the Wii owners I know (about a dozen) only one has another (current gen) system (360).  

I think Wii will be over 50% by end of year.  We've yet to really see the buying potential of the Wii since it's been supply constrained since launch.  If it continues to sell out, it'll very quickly put many millions between it and the others as they experience their usual non-holiday slow sales.



 

Fastrabbit09 on 02 January 2008
MrMafoo said:
Adding the Wii into the mix of the “Console War” equation is misleading at best.

I know well over a dozen people who own a Wii, and every one of them has either a 360 or a PS3 as well. I do not know a single person with a Wii who does not have another console of this Generation.

Besides, the only reason why anyone should care if a console sells well, is that games continue to be made for it. If the gaming industry has grown to the point where the 360, Wii, and PS3 can all be successful this generation, then what console sells the most is irrelevant.

small small small sample size

 i only know 2 wii owners that have either ps3 or 360...everyone else has just the wii...of course, i'm 26, so i'm talking about adults, not 'mature hardcore teens'

wii will reach >50% market share THIS YEAR, by this fall at latest...and only increase from there

 

 



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp