ihatejunkmail0 on 02 January 2008
So I just noticed that PS3 now is at 20% market share and it got me thinking:
For a while now, the PS3 and X360 have been selling at a 1:1 ratio on the world market. And the we has been always somewhere between 2:1 or 3:2 on both those systems. Given that information (and of course assuming that these ratios remain stable) it seems like the steady state for this generation's console wars through 2008 is
45% Wii
30% X360
25% PS3
With the PS3 always asymptoticly approaching the X360 and eventually pulling even at 25-30% for both.
This is simply a regression to the mean with respect to the relatively stable sales ratio. Well that's my prediction. Feel free to rave (I know you will).
