I know for sure that one person only has a Wii, I'm unsure about another person who has a Wii, but the couple of other people I know do own a PS3 or 360 as well.

Yes he will and here's my take.

I predicted a surge in Wii hardware output for 2008. I predicted that Wii in 2008 will make the preceding year & piece look like Child's Play with a very tame Chucky. Wii in 2008 will be what is elected (love my election year pun do ya?)and because of this the percentages we will see from Wii will be a MAJORITY of the home console sector of the gamesmarket not just a PLURALITY.

See here: http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Plurality

I really think XBox 360 has peaked with Halo 3. That September NPD told the whole story. A record-breaking game in opening week sales that pushed more units (about double the usually seen output) yet barely outsold the Wii which barely did anything amazing that month unless you count the late August American launch of Metroid Prime 3. And afterwards it had went back to its normal output in the following months not counting the holiday surge.

It sells sure & steady like a tortoise and will receive a sure & steady unit shifts but to count these percentages you have to think about rate. Speed rates of sales. Wii's going from hare to cheetah in 2008 and 360 will remain tortoise with PS3 as snapper turtle. This means the percentages will rise for Wii and drop for 360 & PS3 due to speed of sales. PS3's trying to catchup to 360's level with 360 to try keep them at bay. As they fight it out the PS3 may become even with the 360 if successful or remain at same ratio that exists now if not successful.

In February of 2007 it was about 9:5:2 ~ 360:Wii:PS3 worldwide.

9 + 5 + 2 = 16 so we had approximately 9/16 of home console sector of market for XBox 360, 5/16 of market for Wii, & 2/16 of market for PS3.

So in percentage form we had a skosh over 56% for 360, a tidget over 31% for Wii, & a tooraloo above 12% for PS3 (56.25%, 31.25%, 12.5%).

By June when ArsTechnica did that piece on VGC we had these figures:

Now we had about a 10:8:3 ratio of 360, Wii, & PS3.

10 + 8 + 3 = 21 so we had approximately 10/21 for 360, 8/21 for Wii, & 3/21 for PS3.

That's a bit over 47% for 360, about 38% for Wii, & about 14% for PS3.

In 4 short months Wii went from a touch over half of 360's sales to four-fifths of it. This made Wii's percentage jump about 7 points from 31 to 38 with leader 360 dropping 9 points from 56 to 47. PS3 made the jump up 2 percentage points. By June PS3 made its PAL launch which boosted sales a little.

On the charts now at the time of this writing January 2, 2008: Wii stands at 19.20 million with 43.6%, 360  stands at 16.02 million with 36.3%, & PS3 stands at 8.86 million with 20.1%. Look how much ground Wii covered in 6 months from that figure in June. Late June at that. Wii's sales speed overtook the former market leader, 360, who sold at a steady & sure pace and PS3 did things to speed up their momentum.

As a result, Wii went within a year from 31% to near 44%; 360 went from 56% to over 36%; PS3 went from 12% to 20%. 360 went from majority marketshare to plurality marketshare to large minority marketshare all in the course of a year.

It's about sales rate. The speed of sales which push those percentages of the purchase pie. Wii is now a solid 3 million units over 360 thanks to the holidays & this effect will continue to worsen as 360 comes down from the shopping season adrenaline high to receive more normal figures as will the PS3. Wii while also coming down from the thin air heights of the Himalayas will plateau higher than the other two while selling faster creating larger gaps in the sales comparisons. That's when the percentages will get worse.

Wii's playing at fast tempo while 360 & PS3 tempoes like Lawrence Welk. And because I expect a surge for Wii in 2008 as Nintendo realizes the demand & produces accordingly there's no doubt in my mind that Wii will not only see a Majority marketshare this year but a substantial one possibly smelling the 60% range. Of course we're just talking about home console only comparisons (which is only fair to Microsoft since they have no handheld representative). Overall marketshare is already majority Nintendo's and this will only get more pronounced in 2008 with Wii & DS shattering more expectations.

It's about the speed of sales.

John Lucas 

I guess the point I was making, is just about everyone that owns two consoles, owns the Wii + another. I bet the number of people with only two next gen consoles that don't own a Wii is very small.

The reason for that is they don't really compete against each other. I doubt that people want a PS3 or 360, but "settle" for a Wii. They buy the Wii because that's the console they want, and even if all 3 consoles cost $250, they would have gotten a Wii.

The 360 and the PS3 target the same audience. Realistic sports games, FPS and the like. They are looking to capture gammers that also want to watch movies. Most people who buy one or the other feel they don't need the small advantages in a few categories that the other provides. There gaming needs that both offer have been met by there console of choice.

Look, I can play games on lots of things. My iPod, my phone, a handheld device like the PSP or DS, and my PC. Why are those not being compared against the 360 or the PS3? The reason is because the gaming experience those devices provide does not overlap enough to consider them in direct competition with the 360 or PS3. I feel the same way about the Wii. It's a great system with great games, but if what you really want is a PS3 or 360, a Wii is not going to satisfy your needs.

P.S. Thanks ihatejunkmail0 :)

Why not twist it around and say the people who bought a PS3 and/or 360 also buy Wiis?

Your logic's a little flawed there, MrMafoo. See, there's most certainly a portion of the market (myself included in it) that is not interested in either PS3 or 360, but is interested in the sorts of games slated for them (high-profile RPGs, in my case). It takes more than games to sell a console, though that does help a lot. For me, I don't want either PS3 or 360 at this point because the games I'm interested in aren't out on them (and there aren't enough games I'm interested out on them; I've a 5-wanted-game-minimum requirement when buying a new console), and because I can't afford them at their current price points anyway.

Your post is kind of all over the place. It says it takes more then games to sell a console to you, and then everything else you say (including your sig) state the reason you have a Wii and not the PS3 or 360 is strictly due to games.

You're assuming that my statements were mutually exclusive; they're not. My original reason for getting a Wii was that I came up with 5 games to get for it (more than 5, actually). The price wasn't the main factor at all; it was the games on it that sold me on the system. That said, price still was a factor for me in the sense that I rarely have $300 to $600 readily available to go plunk down on a new game system plus games. Were I to decide that the PS3 and 360 were worth it, I would have to save up my money to afford them first. And I did have to budget out getting my Wii so it didn't eat into my funds for other things, like food and living expenses in general.

Eventually, there probably will be enough games on PS3 or 360 to justify my getting one or both. But I don't forsee it any time soon. My main interest in the so-called "hardcore" games lies with a very specific few RPG series, and thus far only two have been officially announced for either (SO4 and FF13), and neither has me sold yet since I didn't care for their immediate predecessors.

Oh, and I have both DS and PSP. Same thing applies with each as did with the Wii: I got each when the systems had enough games I wanted to justify the purchase (and when I had enough free funds to afford the purchase).

And is a gazillion the hunter, the hunted or do they take turn to hunt each other down?

OnT: Given that the Wii and the PS3 are currently gaining their extra percentages from the 360 marketshare it will be harder and harder for the PS3 to increase its marketshare.

Same thing for the Wii; as it approaches 50% it will need to sell more or almost more than either other consoles combined to gain percents which is why I expect it to raise during most weeks WW (though not necessarily in Europe where PS3 is at its strongest or Japan as it already has a huge marketshare and should lost points as long as the PS3 sells decently) but go down when there are major games coming out, price drops and especially at Christmas.

This is why I doubt that the PS3 will reach 30% this year (it is unlikely to pass the 360 this year and both at 30% would mean the Wii would be at 40%, lower than now, which is unlikely at this point) and think that even if the Wii goes to 50% at some point in the year it might well go back down to less than 50% during the holiday period (it depends on how early enough they can get  to 50% and how much stockpile they can have for Christmas).

 Thanks for reminding me to change my sig.

The last paragraph of your post is the interesting one, but I find it a little idealistic. These things tend to snowball. Though I do think that the trailing consoles this gen have better prospects than they did last gen, simply because the dominant company this gen wasn't the leader last gen and didn't get to market first, like the PS2 did.