PSP will take over the DS , because Golden Compass 2 from Sega will be exclusive for the sistem :o

Well my JL prediction will be this. The Wii will only sell 14 units worldwide this year. No, not 14 million/billion/trazillion, just 14.

Oh and the PS3 and 360 will sell 30 brazillion units. (It's a Brazilian term, look it up, I didn't.) After which, you'll see leaked photos of Bill Gates sneaking into a Nintendo warehouse and slapping a Xbox sticker on all of the Wii's.

It has nothing to do with the competition, but with the amount of units Nintendo was able to supply.

Most who disagreed with John did so because of supply, not demand.

And if John predicted 20 million Wii sales when sales were already at 9 or 10 million, you can't calculate a margin of error out of 20 million, but out of 10 or 11 million. See?

I think the Wii probably sold more than 14 units in the time it took you to write this your post. Well at least it would have if there were Wiis around.

Happy New Year 2008 VGChartz members!

I am honored that you think of me this way to title the thread. I'm just one man of many adding my perspective to the mix and I am flattered that what I've had to say here has earned you all's respect and admiration.

I also enjoy the parodies. Great work, DMeisterJ & Munkeh111.

Me & Erik Aston (and others like The Source) battled a little in debate when I made that MINIMUM 20 million at end of 2007 prediction (still to be counted and Avinash_Tyagi feels where I'm coming from on the Dec. 29/Dec. 31 distinction). It was just so incredulous at the time (which I loved!) and I wished I start posting here sooner instead of lurking 'cause it had been in my head a long time. After seeing people debate that Wii could not top the 360 by the end of 2007, I was galvanized into action to begin posting. I had to represent how much I believed in this Wii vision because I knew it was destined for greatness. I had no doubt in my mind that Nintendo knew exactly how to operate this generation. All this generation I've been checking off milestones I saw being passed and I'm still doing that.

However I will once again disagree with the Sam Cooke to my James Brown here.

Love ya Erik but I gotta clear something up. I don't change what I've said. Some predictions were off the cuff and some were thought-out. For the Wii Fit prediction I explain the whole theory (the stipulations and all) in the thread BECAUSE it's so seemingly out there. Some predictions seem so far fetched that they need an extra explanation. I do NOT just throw stuff out there when an explanation is needed or demanded. If it's off the cuff, I'll either say it's off the cuff or you'll just see a number or sentence with no backup explanation.

You may say it's obvious market trends but then why do so many not see them? Why do they ask questions and run discussions on how this will do or that will do? How come if this obvious trend is pointed out it's usually dismissed or unbelievable to most who see it? Saying Wii will sell well may be obvious but saying exactly how, what, when, where, and why it will sell well is not so obvious.

How come when I make the prediction only few or none believe what I have to say except as time unveils the story? It's a big piece of why I like making them. Because it goes so against the grain of popular thought. People begin to discuss the possibilities in agreement or disagreement and we get some lively debates in here with new reasoning coming out the exercise. I challenge conventional thinking on the subject even if my call ends up in error.

I remember this feeling before XBox 360 launched when I broke down the 7th generation based on the info available at the time. http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254 EVERYBODY called me looney! It was great. Some dismissed my words with a rude comment because of their opinion of my assessment. Only one piece was missing from that assessment and that's Sony's self-sabotage which goes into the mental computer as a lesson for future predictions.

And I love Sean Malstrom's takes on the industry. He really helped me think in new ways on the subject that I had never thought of before. I believe his piece called "Theory of Cycles" was absolutely EXCELLENT. But a big piece of why I liked what he was saying was because it was right in line with what I already was thinking myself. I made some of my predictions in other places before I ever read any of his work. His work just gave me more perspective on the subject and underlined my POV. But my views are always my own from my own mad crazy imagination. I think most people here agree that all that rambling text I put down could only come from that insane place! Hahahaha!

Don't take this as an assault on you, Erik. Not my intention at all. I'm just explaning my stance for clarification. Clarity's a big thing to me much like Unity was a big thing to Charlie Murphy's forehead (See Chappelle's Show). Both me & you saw Wii in the 20 million range way back in March just like me & Superchunk saw Wii passing 360 worldwide in the summer even if we differed on the specific date.

******

Anyway, off the ramble and back on topic...

A JL Prediction from JL himself would be the still standing:

*Wii will see 60 million sold worldwide by the end of 2008.

*Wii Fit's opening week will outsell Halo 3 opening week worldwide when tallied together (still waiting on this to redeem my failed Japan stipulation).

*Resident Evil 5 will see itself on the Wii.

*XBox 360 will increase aggressiveness (by EVERY means necessary: price drops, money lures, market hype, etc.) towards PS3 to fight for an overall #2 position in the marketplace (this continues one of my oldest visions about 360's aggressiveness to PS3 to fight against being an outsider in the gamesmarket).

*Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the PS3 (a prediction possibly seen as my craziest ever even past my Wii Fit one).

*Wii's 2008 will make Wii's 2006/2007 look like child's play (get ready for insane production & sales numbers).

*Related to last point: Nintendo's market dominance and sister sector cooperation (handheld and home consoles) which I call the WiiDS Phenomenon will also begin showing itself in 2008. Nintendo will certainly become not only a plurality of the market (not just the 45% discussed in this thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=13301) but a MAJORITY of the market (over 50%). Eventually a vast majority (think in the ranges of 67%, 75% to see a Pac-Man on the pie chart) as the years roll on.

As for new ones look out throughout the year as they come to me. I work from visions that come to me most of the time. This is why I get so energized to post. Have to capture that vision before it fades.

How's that for a long post?

John Lucas

the ps3 will sell 55 mil
everyone will send their 360 back making 360 sales 0
wii only sells another 50 consoles this year
hell will freeze over
chavs will start listening to lamb of god

Wii can realistically accomplish 100M by the end of 2008 if Nintendo could produce enough units. They already have enough games and hype for it even without knowing the major hitters for fall 2008.

 That is just plain comedy genious! I salute you!

You certainly understand the market, John, and I certainly give you more credit than those who ignore obvious trends, but your predictions rarely do you any favors.

Here we go...

*Wii will see 60 million sold worldwide by the end of 2008.

If Nintendo can ramp production up fast enough, the demand is there. But I doubt they can produce 40 million in one year... yet. 30 million I think they probably can, this year.

*Wii Fit's opening week will outsell Halo 3 opening week worldwide when tallied together (still waiting on this to redeem my failed Japan stipulation).

This prediction I really hate because it's one that seems not to understand the market (along with not understanding how much Nintendo can or will produce).

Shooters are a saturated genre filled with constant one-upmanship. Microsoft needs to hype launches like Halo and Gears of War to maximize software sales, because if they rely on a long tail for the bulk of sales, better shooters will inevitably come along and eat up their potential sales.

After a mega launch like this, public perception around the product can take a hit. It feels like a flash-in-the-pan, "over-hyped;" some non-fans get swept up in the hype and turn into bad WOM; if something perceived as a better product comes along quickly, like CoD4, it can damage the brand; and the tail of the product will be more influenced by seasonal trends, thus MS pushing Halo 3 into September to capitalize on Xmas more.

A game like Brain Age, Nintendogs, Guitar Hero, Wii Sports or Wii Fit is looking to build up a new genre from scratch. They have no built in audience, expectations, and the public likely doesn't even understand the product yet. These games need slower roll-outs to find their audience.

Satoru Iwata said something about how no one would believe Nintendo's expectations for Wii Fit if they announced them, just like no one would believe they expected 20 million sales from the Brain Age brand in 2005. Companies pushing for a mega launch talk about "the biggest entertainment debut ever." Nintendo never pushes for the debut, they want the games that will still be selling millions of copies years later, and trying to forcefeed the public something they don't yet understand is not the way to do that.

*Resident Evil 5 will see itself on the Wii.

*Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the PS3 (a prediction possibly seen as my craziest ever even past my Wii Fit one).

See, I agree that Wii will see more and more top support, and PS3 will see less and less, but predicting specifics like this is no good, unless you have sources at Capcom or Konami.

One thing that will happen is that games that should have been major 5 million + sellers will fail to sell that much on PS3, while games no one would expect to be major hits sell 5 million + on Wii. Another thing that will happen is smaller third parties will thrive with smaller, innovative 500K-1M sellers moreso than on PS2. We've seen that already with DS and Wii with games like Trauma Center and Prof. Layton. The change won't all come through OMG moments like Monster Hunter being cancelled for PS3 and brought to Wii.

*XBox 360 will increase aggressiveness (by EVERY means necessary: price drops, money lures, market hype, etc.) towards PS3 to fight for an overall #2 position in the marketplace (this continues one of my oldest visions about 360's aggressiveness to PS3 to fight against being an outsider in the gamesmarket).

I agree here. Ironically for MS, this aggressiveness, which goes along with the debut hype mentality mentioned above, will make it difficult for them to generate the perpetual spontaneous hype that always fuels the top systems. The great software lineup this winter did a lot more to create good will toward and sales for 360 than did MS's aggressive warrenties, price cuts, pack-ins and hype.

*Wii's 2008 will make Wii's 2006/2007 look like child's play (get ready for insane production & sales numbers).

I agree here too. 2009 will beat 2008, as well.

*Related to last point: Nintendo's market dominance and sister sector cooperation (handheld and home consoles) which I call the WiiDS Phenomenon will also begin showing itself in 2008. Nintendo will certainly become not only a plurality of the market (not just the 45% discussed in this thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=13301) but a MAJORITY of the market (over 50%). Eventually a vast majority (think in the ranges of 67%, 75% to see a Pac-Man on the pie chart) as the years roll on.

I can see 60% for Wii in the middle-term, and yes, maybe even more than 75% when all is said and done. There is always a dominant system with at least 60% marketshare, no matter how much some folks believe in the mythical "three way tie."

@johnlucas
I think in that single post you wrote more then a person that almost has 9000 posts XD