Happy New Year 2008 VGChartz members!
I am honored that you think of me this way to title the thread. I'm just one man of many adding my perspective to the mix and I am flattered that what I've had to say here has earned you all's respect and admiration.
I also enjoy the parodies. 
Great work, DMeisterJ & Munkeh111.
Me & Erik Aston (and others like The Source) battled a little in debate when I made that MINIMUM 20 million at end of 2007 prediction (still to be counted and Avinash_Tyagi feels where I'm coming from on the Dec. 29/Dec. 31 distinction). It was just so incredulous at the time (which I loved!) and I wished I start posting here sooner instead of lurking 'cause it had been in my head a long time. After seeing people debate that Wii could not top the 360 by the end of 2007, I was galvanized into action to begin posting. I had to represent how much I believed in this Wii vision because I knew it was destined for greatness. I had no doubt in my mind that Nintendo knew exactly how to operate this generation. All this generation I've been checking off milestones I saw being passed and I'm still doing that.
However I will once again disagree with the Sam Cooke to my James Brown here.
Tokilamockingbrd:
Actually, John Lucas claims to reason out his predictions ("I don't just throw stuff out there!"), and then later claims he didn't (Wii passing 360 in July in US, Wii Fit first week beating Halo first week in Japan alone instead of WW--those were just off the cuff changes).
We give this guy way too much credit for seeing obvious market trends (Wii will sell well! More than 360! PS3 will lose support! OMG!), and then putting on an overblown sideshow about it.
Sean Malstrom actually explained why the market would shape up like it has. In comparison, Lucas is a poser.
My big 2008 prediction has been for several months that DS will reach 100 million shipments in the quarter ending December 2008.
Love ya Erik but I gotta clear something up. I don't change what I've said. Some predictions were off the cuff and some were thought-out. For the Wii Fit prediction I explain the whole theory (the stipulations and all) in the thread BECAUSE it's so seemingly out there. Some predictions seem so far fetched that they need an extra explanation. I do NOT just throw stuff out there when an explanation is needed or demanded. If it's off the cuff, I'll either say it's off the cuff or you'll just see a number or sentence with no backup explanation.
You may say it's obvious market trends but then why do so many not see them? Why do they ask questions and run discussions on how this will do or that will do? How come if this obvious trend is pointed out it's usually dismissed or unbelievable to most who see it? Saying Wii will sell well may be obvious but saying exactly how, what, when, where, and why it will sell well is not so obvious.
How come when I make the prediction only few or none believe what I have to say except as time unveils the story? It's a big piece of why I like making them. Because it goes so against the grain of popular thought. People begin to discuss the possibilities in agreement or disagreement and we get some lively debates in here with new reasoning coming out the exercise. I challenge conventional thinking on the subject even if my call ends up in error.
I remember this feeling before XBox 360 launched when I broke down the 7th generation based on the info available at the time. http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254 EVERYBODY called me looney! It was great. Some dismissed my words with a rude comment because of their opinion of my assessment. Only one piece was missing from that assessment and that's Sony's self-sabotage which goes into the mental computer as a lesson for future predictions.
And I love Sean Malstrom's takes on the industry. He really helped me think in new ways on the subject that I had never thought of before. I believe his piece called "Theory of Cycles" was absolutely EXCELLENT. But a big piece of why I liked what he was saying was because it was right in line with what I already was thinking myself. I made some of my predictions in other places before I ever read any of his work. His work just gave me more perspective on the subject and underlined my POV. But my views are always my own from my own mad crazy imagination. I think most people here agree that all that rambling text I put down could only come from that insane place! Hahahaha!
Don't take this as an assault on you, Erik. Not my intention at all. I'm just explaning my stance for clarification. Clarity's a big thing to me much like Unity was a big thing to Charlie Murphy's forehead (See Chappelle's Show). Both me & you saw Wii in the 20 million range way back in March just like me & Superchunk saw Wii passing 360 worldwide in the summer even if we differed on the specific date.
******
Anyway, off the ramble and back on topic...
A JL Prediction from JL himself would be the still standing:
*Wii will see 60 million sold worldwide by the end of 2008.
*Wii Fit's opening week will outsell Halo 3 opening week worldwide when tallied together (still waiting on this to redeem my failed Japan stipulation).
*Resident Evil 5 will see itself on the Wii.
*XBox 360 will increase aggressiveness (by EVERY means necessary: price drops, money lures, market hype, etc.) towards PS3 to fight for an overall #2 position in the marketplace (this continues one of my oldest visions about 360's aggressiveness to PS3 to fight against being an outsider in the gamesmarket).
*Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the PS3 (a prediction possibly seen as my craziest ever even past my Wii Fit one).
*Wii's 2008 will make Wii's 2006/2007 look like child's play (get ready for insane production & sales numbers).
*Related to last point: Nintendo's market dominance and sister sector cooperation (handheld and home consoles) which I call the WiiDS Phenomenon will also begin showing itself in 2008. Nintendo will certainly become not only a plurality of the market (not just the 45% discussed in this thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=13301) but a MAJORITY of the market (over 50%). Eventually a vast majority (think in the ranges of 67%, 75% to see a Pac-Man on the pie chart) as the years roll on.
As for new ones look out throughout the year as they come to me. I work from visions that come to me most of the time. This is why I get so energized to post. Have to capture that vision before it fades.
How's that for a long post?
John Lucas
Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot
WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!
