Close, but it will just miss.

I think that holidays will be big for X360 but not enough to beat 2010. But it will be close.

And I don't think there would be a price cut - rather some serious bundling.

i voted: Close, and it will just do it.

No way, MS had everything in their favor that year a good line up, kinect releasing right at the holiday season (kinect is the only reason MS is up at the start of this year), this year it has it's big names as always but it only has those 3 and kinect nothing else, last year it had conviction and alan wake among others, and kinect won't have as much selling power this holiday

What does NPD have to do with this? You said that 360 would "very likely" be up going by shipments, but were "not sure" if it would be by VGC sales. You never mentioned NPD and that statement directly implies that VGC usually undertracks 360 relative to shipments, which is a baseless accusation.

Keep dreaming. It'll be down heavily the remainder of the year, and end up around 10% down YoY at the end, even with a price cut, it'll still be down 5-7%. It can only get worse next year, with 15-20% down end of year likely, and it'll be like the Wii. When it goes down, there's no stopping it...

Also- it won't sell above 1mil without a price cut this year. Wii might, and the PS3 has a shot, but the 360 just won't have the power this year.

*waits for Seece to laugh at my post ;) *

Bolded - you know that 2 of those 3 franchises are console sellers right? Even Forza might sell a few consoles at least way more than Alan Wake and Splinter Cell Conviction (I don't know why you mentionned these games). Also games like Dance Central 2 and Kinect Sports 2 will be very popular amongst the casuals not to mention Star Wars Kinect. Kinect had a full year to prove itself and it did, now watch it sell like crazy again this winter.

did you just say star wars kinect proved itself... it's a rail game, all you do is stand there and swing an invisble sword against generic enemies wave after wave... and almost everyone interested in a series that has 5 installments on a system has the system and they had them last year so yeah...

I'm looking at the Q4 line up and 2012 and it doesn't look good...I believe they will come close but will miss..

I would agree with you about Star Wars Kinect if the only people targeted with this game were gamers like you or me but it's not the case. Little Jimmy doesn't care if all he has to do is stand there and swing agains't generic enemies wave after wave, in fact, he hopes that's what he'll do. Remember that yes Kinect sold 10 millions already but now that more games are out and a lot of people are aware of it it will sell like crazy again this holyday.

I didn't said that SWK prove itself (I personaly think it's very average) I said Kinect prove itself. More people will want to experience last year craze. Maybe I'm all too confident but imo MS will beat last year.