Theirs no proof that smartphone affect handheld yest smarphone sold better but means nothing.
The DS sold like a monster because of touch screen and games,the PSP has a lack of game that's why it don't sell better than 70 millions.
And 3Ds don't sell that good just because it's over priced and don't have killerapp games in the lunch not beacause of smartphone.
And if the psvita has good games and a better marketing it can sold more than 100 millions .

Damn why the kotick hate? but anyway im sure the 3ds and vita will do great.

Good post.

Though do consider this. The PS3 and X360 took time to get steam on. In the mean time (and the late PS2 years) the new thing was the DS/PSP, with the PSP being really THE strong portable. Look at the state of it today... you likely barely heard the mention of a new PSP game in months (besides SE games), it's a strugling segment of the market (yes piracy has it's part here, but so does it in the hardware sales). My point is PSP had an edge.

Now look at Vita... the competition is an ever more powerfull cell phone base, they are already well into PSP power (XPERIA play is your example, though less powerfull, it isn't the most powerfull cellphone either)... add moore's law... Vita launches when cell phones are arriving at PS2 level games capacity, a time where cell phones have games like minecraft... where's the edge? Dual analog.... the answer to that is Xperia play.... ironic (a newer model was already spotted with TV out, sony is going to continue that line... a bit counter productive for Vita no?)

Now look at the 3DS... it has all the same features... but one that really makes it special... 2 screens. Can't beat that how ever way you look at it.

I agree with Kotick... where's the market?

The DS itself didn't really take off until it was about 2 years into its life. The PSP began to decline heavily after 2 years. I think the major reason was that the DS was the first system to get a lot of quality titles out suitable for the handheld market. The PSP struggled with trying to mimic the PS2 experience, and it looked like not nearly as many people were interested in that, and it ended up failing to sell nearly as much in both hardware, but especially software, as a result.

The major problem effecting the 3DS was the lack of a major adventure title until Ocarina of Time. Also there was a lot of negative press saying that 3D blinded children, and that it gave people migraines and seizures; all of those negative statements turned out to be false reports. So perhaps the 3DS will recover by Christmas from the bad press. It is difficult to say what will happen.

I don't think the PSP Vita will really have a greater shot than the PSP1 did did. Mostly because the hype and marketing going into the PSP1 was much higher than the PSP Vita; also the Playstation brand was much stronger back in 2005 than it is today.

Also i think there's a lack of new IP's on the 3DS. It really needs a game the way brain training and nintendogs did for the DS. I'm sure Nintendo are working on something but i think they need to speed it up

That was nice interview and I was suprised he didn't put any trolling into it as he usually does.

From many publishers' perspective, the Playstation Vita is a massive risk due to the extremely large budgets required to take advantage of the graphical capabilities. Even with the XBox 360, PS3 and PC to release HD games on, and selling these games for $20 to $30 more than most handheld games sell for, publishers have struggled to break even on a large portion of the games they released on the HD consoles over the past 6 years. If you're producing original PS Vita games that push its limits the budgets will grow to the range of these HD console games, and you're almost ensured to lose money if you release this game exclusively.

What this means is that publishers will likely focus on porting HD console games to the PS Vita and these will probably make it to market 12 to 24 months after their console equilivalent was released, or producing games that don't come close to taking advantage of the PS Vita's capabilities and could (probably) run on the 3DS or any smartphone. Old ports are not (necessarily) a bad thing, but the age of the ports the PS Vita will be getting is (probably) the age that minimizes sales; much older games (5+ year old games) have value because they're seen as classics, and new games have value because no one has played them before, but if a game is a couple years old few people who really wanted to play it wouldn't have played it and few people would be looking to play through it again.

Please note, I'm not trying to bash the Vita but I think it is positioned in an odd place where publishers are probably wondering what to do with it.

Sony has said that the Vita development budgets are closer to PSP levels than PS3 levels. This is probably due to the 0.522 Megapixel resolution of the OLED screen (HD is 2.07 MP), streamlined development kits (which has already received praise from many developers for how easy it is), and lower poly count used in Vita games.

Vita's distribution models support a range of development budgets (price points $1-$40) with having both digital and physical copies of Vita games and supporting compatibility with PSP minis, Downloadable PSP games, and PlayStation Suite games.

This actually draws to another point that even though phones are going to be more powerful in the future, they still have constraints on price points their market is willing to pay for a game, which is too low to support development budgets to sustain taking advantage of future hardware.

Additionally, there is a great limitation to depth of game experiences that can be had on devices featuring only a touch screen and gyroscope; giving developers more flexibility of control options in the Vita allows for more creative and new game experiences to be made.

The Vita is well positioned because it is a high quality, low priced, differentiated product which developers are excited to make games for; in fact, over 150 studios are currently making games for the Vita.

Well there are proper games on the PSP if you look at God Eater Burst, PeaceWalker, or even the GoW games among many others not on phones and that will never be on phones. My only criticism so far on Vita is the exclusivity with AT&T. They should allow 3G AND 4G so you can tether it to your phone. Imagine playing COD multiplayer or Uncharted multiplayer on the road?  Or playing a MH game on the train or outside? I see huge potential but the AT&T thing rubbed me the wrong way. Also Sony has quite a few first parties that have developed and are developing great games even for Vita. The Wipeout series, Super Stardust series, along with Resistance, KZ, Uncharted, among many others. What I always loved about my current PSP is how well the sleep mode lowers battery usage. I played Ghost of Sparta for a couple of hours between travel time and putting it on sleep mode on and off and whatnot, then put it on sleep mode at the end of the day. A couple of days later I turn it back on to see the game paused realizing I had forgotten to save and quit. My point is that people have bashed the PSP because of the full console type games and the "boo hoo you cannot pickup and play and put down 5 min later", well to those idiots it is called sleep mode and you can play anything 5-10 min at a time and then catch up later. Battery Life, the PlayStation experience, good online , is all Vita really needs.

will the vita sell at a profit from the get go,thats the most important thing i'd say,i think the online/psn needs to be a good strong option for the vita aswell as games from the off obviously,if it gets near the psp then its done fine i think

the 3ds will sell fine come this holiday,it needs all the brain training etc to really make it jump big aswell as mario,pokemon and the usuals,it will be hard for anything to match the nds but you never know