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Forums - Gaming Discussion - I feel a MASSIVE change in the gaming industry

Bodhesatva on 28 December 2007
Legend11 said:
Bodhesatva said:

Legend may be antagonistic, but people need to stop acting like he's crazy. People have told him to "look at the math." I agree, there is a lot going for the Wii right now.

But there is a lot going for the 360, too. First and foremost, all 360 games can be properly leveraged as PS3 games, as well. Multiplatform opportunites are good. Second, while overall total software totals for the Wii may be as high or even higher than the 360 on a weekly basis now, a huge portion of these sales are 1st party. I absolutely think this reason is retarded, and basically amounts to 3rd parties saying "Nintendo is too good, let's not compete with them," which from a gamer's perspective is lousy, but it's clearly what many publishers feel and if you happen to be publishing a game that you know isn't as good as Nintendo's finest, it makes sense. As Legend says, many publishers (including major ones like EA and Activision) are making a lot more money on the 360 thus far than they are on the Wii. Lastly, the marketshare distribution is spread evenly for the Wii worldwide, and in many cases games won't have worldwide appeal, such as Madden or Singstar. A system with a lopsided sales distribution will benefit from this, as it will be the best place to put American-centric games that are unlikely to sell in the EU or Japan.

In short, is it likely that the Wii will see more games from third parties as time goes on? Yes, it is. Absolutely, and I doubt Legend would deny that. But there is also a good incentive to continue making 360/PS3 games, too, and it's extremely unlikely that they'll abandon a venture that proven profitable to go after a different one. They'll simply add on.

Let me put this simply: Nintendo isn't going to win back third parties in a year, or even in a generation. It took nearly 15 years (from the beginning of the N64 to the end of the Gamecube) to get Nintendo to the complete third party wasteland we see today, and it will probably take at least a decade for them to ever get back to third party dominance -- if they ever do. As many of Legend's detractors have said, it's simple math.


I feel like Tom Cruise and you're my new publicist trying to explain away some wacky Scientology statements I've made (I'm not a Scientologist for anyone wondering). Anyways you don't have to keep defending my remarks or explaining them away. Anytime I post something I usually provide reasons and sometimes evidence for my reasoning and the people who dismiss it outright or treat it as crazy and/or completely wrong are usually those that have a particular belief and are unwilling to listen or look at anything that may dispel that belief.


I hope it's not insulting, Legend -- it isn't supposed to be. In this case, I think you're taking flack because you're tagged as a 360 fanboy, whether your arguments are sound or not. I was just hoping that if something similar came from my mouth, it wouldn't be dismissed out of hand. 



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HappySqurriel on 28 December 2007
Legend11 said:
Smash_Brother said:

Suggesting that the Wii, if it continues to dominate in sales, will NOT also dominate in 3rd party support is the argumentative equivalent of plugging your ears and screaming "NAAAH NAAHH NAAHH! CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!"

I'm not trying to be mean. I'm trying to point out the economic fallacy in your logic. It outsold the 360 in less than half the time and burned the PS3 right out of the gate. I realize that zealous fanbots will pluck any excuse they can from their rear ends in an attempt to reassure themselves in their decision to purchase a PS3/60, but really, it's starting to become embarrassing.


There's something that your're missing though...  The PC, 360, and PS3 all have gamers that have relatively similar tastes in games.  I'm not saying that every PC game would be a hit on console or vice-versa but that there is definitely a lot in common between them.  The Wii on the other hand has a much more diverse audience in which the hardcore are not the majority.  Add into that the fact that the Wii has significantly less power than the other two consoles and a unique controller and it adds even more differences between them. 

So why is all that important?  Well because third parties are making a lot of multiplatform games and they can pretty much treat the PC/360/PS3 audiences as the same and development as pretty similar between them (especially with popular engines like Unreal Engine 3).  Sure there are some differences like some 360s not having a harddrive but that pales in comparison to the Wii's differences (88 megs of ram, motion controller, etc).  So basically that adds to the decisions that third parties have to make when deciding what platforms to put games on and what they want the game to achieve.

Now I'm sure someone will mention the development budget on the Wii being lower but that isn't the whole picture.  Multiplatform games can spread costs among the different versions (level designers, artists, etc).  Also because of the very nature of the PC/360/PS3 audiences it's likely easier to know what games are almost a sure thing with them.  Not only that but some successful third party multiplatform PC/360/PS3 games are hitting 3-5+ million right now.  That's several million copies of pure profit once the initial cost is paid off.  You can bet that third parties planning AAA games take that into consideration.


Well, the so-called "Hardcore" are far from the majority on absolutely every system ...

Beyond that the PC can only help the PS3 and XBox 360 for a (fairly) short while longer. My current PC (Athlon X2 3800+ and Geforce 7800GT) is similar in capabilities to the XBox 360 and by this time next year it will be far below the minimum requirements of most PC games; optimization should enable developers to get more from the XBox 360 than my PC but eventually unimaginative PC developers who focus on graphics above gameplay will be attempting to push the limits of hardware far beyond what Crysis has done, with absolutely no regards for the minimum requrements.

Realistically, in 2009 the PC ports will really dry up and the XBox 360 and PS3 will have to stand on their own 2 feet ... How well do you think they will fare given that they may have smaller combined sales than the Wii?



Legend11 on 28 December 2007
Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
Bodhesatva said:

Legend may be antagonistic, but people need to stop acting like he's crazy. People have told him to "look at the math." I agree, there is a lot going for the Wii right now.

But there is a lot going for the 360, too. First and foremost, all 360 games can be properly leveraged as PS3 games, as well. Multiplatform opportunites are good. Second, while overall total software totals for the Wii may be as high or even higher than the 360 on a weekly basis now, a huge portion of these sales are 1st party. I absolutely think this reason is retarded, and basically amounts to 3rd parties saying "Nintendo is too good, let's not compete with them," which from a gamer's perspective is lousy, but it's clearly what many publishers feel and if you happen to be publishing a game that you know isn't as good as Nintendo's finest, it makes sense. As Legend says, many publishers (including major ones like EA and Activision) are making a lot more money on the 360 thus far than they are on the Wii. Lastly, the marketshare distribution is spread evenly for the Wii worldwide, and in many cases games won't have worldwide appeal, such as Madden or Singstar. A system with a lopsided sales distribution will benefit from this, as it will be the best place to put American-centric games that are unlikely to sell in the EU or Japan.

In short, is it likely that the Wii will see more games from third parties as time goes on? Yes, it is. Absolutely, and I doubt Legend would deny that. But there is also a good incentive to continue making 360/PS3 games, too, and it's extremely unlikely that they'll abandon a venture that proven profitable to go after a different one. They'll simply add on.

Let me put this simply: Nintendo isn't going to win back third parties in a year, or even in a generation. It took nearly 15 years (from the beginning of the N64 to the end of the Gamecube) to get Nintendo to the complete third party wasteland we see today, and it will probably take at least a decade for them to ever get back to third party dominance -- if they ever do. As many of Legend's detractors have said, it's simple math.


I feel like Tom Cruise and you're my new publicist trying to explain away some wacky Scientology statements I've made (I'm not a Scientologist for anyone wondering). Anyways you don't have to keep defending my remarks or explaining them away. Anytime I post something I usually provide reasons and sometimes evidence for my reasoning and the people who dismiss it outright or treat it as crazy and/or completely wrong are usually those that have a particular belief and are unwilling to listen or look at anything that may dispel that belief.


I hope it's not insulting, Legend -- it isn't supposed to be. In this case, I think you're taking flack because you're tagged as a 360 fanboy, whether your arguments are sound or not. I was just hoping that if something similar came from my mouth, it wouldn't be dismissed out of hand. 

No problem, I appreciate the effort.

 



Bodhesatva on 28 December 2007

I think they'll be fine, Squirrel. Rather than use simplistic terms like "hardcore" (which I also dislike, and have said repeatedly is a misnomer), I think it's fair to say that there is a specific audience for the PS3/360 that is noticably distinct from the Wii in a way that wasn't necessarily true for the PS2/GC/Xbox.

The simplest, easiest example is Madden -- the sales of that game are hugely disproportionate in favor of the 360/PS3. If there is a game that is Madden-esque (in terms of demographic), a system like the PS3 would need something like 1/4th the install base to equal Wii sales, as the PS3 Madden 08 outsold the Wii Madden 08 over 4:1 relative to install base. Then you include the 360 install base... and you're in business. There is no way the Wii will ever outsell the PS3/360 4:1 combined.

And for people making such games, the 360/PS3 is the better choice.  



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Legend11 on 28 December 2007
HappySqurriel said:
Legend11 said:
Smash_Brother said:

Suggesting that the Wii, if it continues to dominate in sales, will NOT also dominate in 3rd party support is the argumentative equivalent of plugging your ears and screaming "NAAAH NAAHH NAAHH! CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!"

I'm not trying to be mean. I'm trying to point out the economic fallacy in your logic. It outsold the 360 in less than half the time and burned the PS3 right out of the gate. I realize that zealous fanbots will pluck any excuse they can from their rear ends in an attempt to reassure themselves in their decision to purchase a PS3/60, but really, it's starting to become embarrassing.


There's something that your're missing though...  The PC, 360, and PS3 all have gamers that have relatively similar tastes in games.  I'm not saying that every PC game would be a hit on console or vice-versa but that there is definitely a lot in common between them.  The Wii on the other hand has a much more diverse audience in which the hardcore are not the majority.  Add into that the fact that the Wii has significantly less power than the other two consoles and a unique controller and it adds even more differences between them. 

So why is all that important?  Well because third parties are making a lot of multiplatform games and they can pretty much treat the PC/360/PS3 audiences as the same and development as pretty similar between them (especially with popular engines like Unreal Engine 3).  Sure there are some differences like some 360s not having a harddrive but that pales in comparison to the Wii's differences (88 megs of ram, motion controller, etc).  So basically that adds to the decisions that third parties have to make when deciding what platforms to put games on and what they want the game to achieve.

Now I'm sure someone will mention the development budget on the Wii being lower but that isn't the whole picture.  Multiplatform games can spread costs among the different versions (level designers, artists, etc).  Also because of the very nature of the PC/360/PS3 audiences it's likely easier to know what games are almost a sure thing with them.  Not only that but some successful third party multiplatform PC/360/PS3 games are hitting 3-5+ million right now.  That's several million copies of pure profit once the initial cost is paid off.  You can bet that third parties planning AAA games take that into consideration.


Well, the so-called "Hardcore" are far from the majority on absolutely every system ...

Beyond that the PC can only help the PS3 and XBox 360 for a (fairly) short while longer. My current PC (Athlon X2 3800+ and Geforce 7800GT) is similar in capabilities to the XBox 360 and by this time next year it will be far below the minimum requirements of most PC games; optimization should enable developers to get more from the XBox 360 than my PC but eventually unimaginative PC developers who focus on graphics above gameplay will be attempting to push the limits of hardware far beyond what Crysis has done, with absolutely no regards for the minimum requrements.

Realistically, in 2009 the PC ports will really dry up and the XBox 360 and PS3 will have to stand on their own 2 feet ... How well do you think they will fare given that they may have smaller combined sales than the Wii?


I guess we'll have to wait and see but I don't that will happen.  I think that multiplatform development will continue until the next console cycle where it will begin again with the next generation of systems.  Simply put the PC audience just isn't there to support cutting edge games like Crysis and it's far more profitable for those companies that make such games to either make them multiplatform like Id and Epic are doing or making them with lower system requirements like Blizzard in which case it's not difficult to port them.



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Bodhesatva on 28 December 2007

Here's a simple question that should highlight the point:

Relative to install base, if a game would sell 4x as well on the PS3 or 360 compared to the Wii, would it make sense to put that game on the Wii? No, it would not, unless you could port the game easily (which I think we all agree is almost always a bad idea).

So the real question is: are there genres that sell in this hugely disproportionate fashion? The answer so far seems to be yes, although it hasn't totally been tested yet. Some dramatically favor the Wii (Raving Rabbids 1 on the Wii sold so much better than the 360 version it isn't even funny) while others favor the PS3/360 (Madden is still the best example here, as its still one of only major games that's been given a legitimate, multiplatform PS3/360/Wii shot). Other games will suit all audiences, such as Guitar Hero or Rock Band.

We seem to be simply assuming that any game that would sell well on the 360 or PS3 would sell approximately as well on the Wii if it were developed for it. That clearly is NOT always the case, nor can we say the same about the reverse scenario. 



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HappySqurriel on 28 December 2007
Bodhesatva said:

I think they'll be fine, Squirrel. Rather than use simplistic terms like "hardcore" (which I also dislike, and have said repeatedly is a misnomer), I think it's fair to say that there is a specific audience for the PS3/360 that is noticably distinct from the Wii in a way that wasn't necessarily true for the PS2/GC/Xbox.

The simplest, easiest example is Madden -- the sales of that game are hugely disproportionate in favor of the 360/PS3. If there is a game that is Madden-esque (in terms of demographic), a system like the PS3 would need something like 1/4th the install base to equal Wii sales, as the PS3 Madden 08 outsold the Wii Madden 08 over 4:1 relative to install base. Then you include the 360 install base... and you're in business. There is no way the Wii will ever outsell the PS3/360 4:1 combined.

And for people making such games, the 360/PS3 is the better choice.  


I honestly believe that you and Legend11 are saying completely different things ...

Legend11's standard argument is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will retain a dramatic advantage in third party development" and your argumet is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will continue to have decent third party support"

I fully agree with your logic ... The XBox 360 and PS3 will still see a steady supply of third party games, the publishers will be very careful with the types of games they get and will probably focus on multiplatform games but the games will continue to exist.

In order for Legend11's argumet to work the XBox 360 and PS3 have to start selling a lot better right away, or third party publishers must become not-for-profit agencies.



Legend11 on 28 December 2007
HappySqurriel said:

I honestly believe that you and Legend11 are saying completely different things ...

Legend11's standard argument is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will retain a dramatic advantage in third party development" and your argumet is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will continue to have decent third party support"

I fully agree with your logic ... The XBox 360 and PS3 will still see a steady supply of third party games, the publishers will be very careful with the types of games they get and will probably focus on multiplatform games but the games will continue to exist.

In order for Legend11's argumet to work the XBox 360 and PS3 have to start selling a lot better right away, or third party publishers must become not-for-profit agencies.


Why do you think I've been talking about multiplatform games?  There are multiplatform games selling now in the 2+ million range, do you think that will go down when the installed bases for both systems (in which many more hardcore conventional gamers will be added) will fall?  I think the vast majority of "expensive" games will be multiplatform in the future.  The exclusives for the 360 and PS3 will likely be ones that Microsoft or Sony secure while those for the Wii will likely be casual low cost games like we're seeing now (Catz, Dogz, Cowz, Pigz, Zack and Wiki, cheap JRPGS, etc/whatever).

I'm not arguing that the Wii won't get a lot of games, it will, I guess the bottom line is I'm arguing how resources will be split between the systems (Wii compared to PC/360/PS3).



Bodhesatva on 28 December 2007
HappySqurriel said:
Bodhesatva said:

I think they'll be fine, Squirrel. Rather than use simplistic terms like "hardcore" (which I also dislike, and have said repeatedly is a misnomer), I think it's fair to say that there is a specific audience for the PS3/360 that is noticably distinct from the Wii in a way that wasn't necessarily true for the PS2/GC/Xbox.

The simplest, easiest example is Madden -- the sales of that game are hugely disproportionate in favor of the 360/PS3. If there is a game that is Madden-esque (in terms of demographic), a system like the PS3 would need something like 1/4th the install base to equal Wii sales, as the PS3 Madden 08 outsold the Wii Madden 08 over 4:1 relative to install base. Then you include the 360 install base... and you're in business. There is no way the Wii will ever outsell the PS3/360 4:1 combined.

And for people making such games, the 360/PS3 is the better choice.


I honestly believe that you and Legend11 are saying completely different things ...

Legend11's standard argument is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will retain a dramatic advantage in third party development" and your argumet is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will continue to have decent third party support"

I fully agree with your logic ... The XBox 360 and PS3 will still see a steady supply of third party games, the publishers will be very careful with the types of games they get and will probably focus on multiplatform games but the games will continue to exist.

In order for Legend11's argumet to work the XBox 360 and PS3 have to start selling a lot better right away, or third party publishers must become not-for-profit agencies.


Legend can correct me if I'm wrong, but looking at this passage from Legend's post a few up:

"There's something that your're missing though...  The PC, 360, and PS3 all have gamers that have relatively similar tastes in games.  I'm not saying that every PC game would be a hit on console or vice-versa but that there is definitely a lot in common between them.  The Wii on the other hand has a much more diverse audience in which the hardcore are not the majority.  Add into that the fact that the Wii has significantly less power than the other two consoles and a unique controller and it adds even more differences between them."

 

It seems to me that Legend is saying that PC/360/PS3 fans have similar tastes (of which Madden is a great example) that differ from Wii fans (of which Raving Rabbids is an example). This disparity in tastes will make it so that the 360/PS3 continue to get the kind of games they're more interested in, and Wii fans will continue to get the kind of support they're interested in. In short, the games that 360/PS3 fans have a proven proclivity for won't jump to the Wii simply because the Wii has a larger install base. 

If there's any serious difference between what Legend and I are saying, it seems to be tone. He doesn't like the Wii. I do. Even if we're saying basically the same thing, it's going to come out differently. 



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Bodhesatva on 28 December 2007
Legend11 said:
HappySqurriel said:

I honestly believe that you and Legend11 are saying completely different things ...

Legend11's standard argument is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will retain a dramatic advantage in third party development" and your argumet is "The XBox 360 and PS3 will continue to have decent third party support"

I fully agree with your logic ... The XBox 360 and PS3 will still see a steady supply of third party games, the publishers will be very careful with the types of games they get and will probably focus on multiplatform games but the games will continue to exist.

In order for Legend11's argumet to work the XBox 360 and PS3 have to start selling a lot better right away, or third party publishers must become not-for-profit agencies.


I think the vast majority of "expensive" games will be multiplatform in the future. The exclusives for the 360 and PS3 will likely be ones that Microsoft or Sony secure while those for the Wii will likely be casual low cost games like we're seeing now (Catz, Dogz, Cowz, Pigz, Zack and Wiki, cheap JRPGS, etc/whatever).


Now here we slightly disagree, Legend. I do think the Wii will get higher cost games. I don't think the Wii has proven that it prefers games that cost nothing to develop, I think it has proven it favors different genres (Pet Sims are a good example, as are Platformers and Adventure games) It just so happens that the ONLY games in the pet sim genre are all low cost right now. Someone -- probably Nintendo, actually -- will produce a polished, expensive, and immersive pet sim, and it will demolish Catz/Doz/Cowz in sales.

The best examples of this so far are things like Super Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess. Those are NOT low cost games, and they sold extraordinarily well on the Wii. What separates the Wii is the genres and styles it tends to prefer, not the cost of development.

So this isn't a big disagreement here. We still both agree that the big, expensive shooters and sports games and racing sims will land on the 360/PS3 primarily. But I do expect we'll see very polished versions of Catz/Dogz in the future, just as we'll see some companies step up and invest heavily in games like Wii Fit. I think it's likely the Wii will get "expensive" games -- just different types of expensive games.



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