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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Square-Enix is doomed. Here's why.

Mr Khan said:
mrstickball said:
Mr Khan said:

The issue is will they be making iPhone games that are anywhere near as good as their console offerings? That's the main issue. SE has proven to be a worthwhile player when they stick to their guns, but if they just go following trends (like so many of the birdmen in this industry) they'll be reduced to irrelevance quicker than quick.

Given that their likely most profitable game in the past ~5 years was on the DS, I'd say they don't have to make it as good as their console offerings.

The advantage of smartphones is that Square can build up and dominate a brand. If that happens, then they can sell their back catalog of games until the cows come home - something few companies outside of Nintendo have the ability to do. It would likely improve their forecasts when they have ancient games like Secret of Mana selling a few hundred copies every month - and multiply that by dozens or hundreds of IPs.

True, if they put their best talent on it. Hell given their notoriety they could just skip to the second part and make it a Virtual Console/PSN-esque dumping ground for SNES/PS1/NES classics.

The problem is that Wada seems to think hiring outsiders is the way to go on that, and not to expand internally. It just doesn't look like they're going in the right direction here (though either way they likely will wise up and do some easy dumping)

Oh, I don't disagree. The only thing right that Square has done recently is buy Edios which seems to be having a string of good games (Batman: Arkham Asylum being one of them with Deus Ex: Human Revolution coming as another).

They've kind of crapped out when it comes to internal priorities: Their focus seems to be on anything and everything but their significant IPs that could help their bottom line. You have many Final Fantasies coming out (but none are major sans vsXIII and that comes out God-knows-when), no mention of KH3 which is likely to sell 5 million copies plus, Dragon Quest for Wii which is likely going to be a historically poor seller given the install bases out there (why they didn't go with another DS/3ds iteration is beyond me, although I guess one can understand it if they greenlit it ~3 years ago).

All the while, Square has so many unbelievable IPs ripe for Virtual Console and HD remakes. Instead, we get Crystal Defenders.

  • Why not release the Terranigma series on VC/iOS?
  • Why not release the classic Dragon Quest games on VC/iOS?
  • Can't they revisit some of their old Squaresoft/Enix IPs to port like Live-a-Live, Bahaumut Lagoon, or the many other games that never came to NA?
  • Where is Square's Android presence? ROMs have grossed millions of dollars likely due to Square-Enix IPs, why not cash in on them?
  • What about Yosumin on phones? Or the Final Fantasy IV collection? Final Fantasy III DS is a hit and has sold about 75,000 copies in two months, what about more ports of the other Final Fantasies? 
  • Why not publish a new 2D epic RPG for smartphones? You have ~300 million users dying for a real JRPG. Its ripe for a multi-million seller (Infinity Blade is the 3rd highest-grossing game of all time and it'd pale in comparison to a serious 30hr JRPG effort by Square)
  • More DS/PSP/3DS/NGP games are likely do be big bucks - not console games (as proven by their sheer lack of success late).

And so on. Those are just a few lost-cost high-turnaround ideas. Really, Edios should stick to console while Square works on a lot of handheld/phone efforts, with the occassional massive IP like KH3, DQ10, FFXV and so on.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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mrstickball said:

Oh, I don't disagree. The only thing right that Square has done recently is buy Edios which seems to be having a string of good games (Batman: Arkham Asylum being one of them with Deus Ex: Human Revolution coming as another).

They've kind of crapped out when it comes to internal priorities: Their focus seems to be on anything and everything but their significant IPs that could help their bottom line. You have many Final Fantasies coming out (but none are major sans vsXIII and that comes out God-knows-when), no mention of KH3 which is likely to sell 5 million copies plus, Dragon Quest for Wii which is likely going to be a historically poor seller given the install bases out there (why they didn't go with another DS/3ds iteration is beyond me, although I guess one can understand it if they greenlit it ~3 years ago).

All the while, Square has so many unbelievable IPs ripe for Virtual Console and HD remakes. Instead, we get Crystal Defenders.

  • Why not release the Terranigma series on VC/iOS?
  • Why not release the classic Dragon Quest games on VC/iOS?
  • Can't they revisit some of their old Squaresoft/Enix IPs to port like Live-a-Live, Bahaumut Lagoon, or the many other games that never came to NA?
  • Where is Square's Android presence? ROMs have grossed millions of dollars likely due to Square-Enix IPs, why not cash in on them?
  • What about Yosumin on phones? Or the Final Fantasy IV collection? Final Fantasy III DS is a hit and has sold about 75,000 copies in two months, what about more ports of the other Final Fantasies? 
  • Why not publish a new 2D epic RPG for smartphones? You have ~300 million users dying for a real JRPG. Its ripe for a multi-million seller (Infinity Blade is the 3rd highest-grossing game of all time and it'd pale in comparison to a serious 30hr JRPG effort by Square)
  • More DS/PSP/3DS/NGP games are likely do be big bucks - not console games (as proven by their sheer lack of success late).

And so on. Those are just a few lost-cost high-turnaround ideas. Really, Edios should stick to console while Square works on a lot of handheld/phone efforts, with the occassional massive IP like KH3, DQ10, FFXV and so on.

Here we disagree on a few points. I've heard that Eidos is a money-sink and that SE's acquisition didn't change that. Equally i think Dragon Quest X is going to do well, given Nintendo's commitment to cross-promoting overseas. Dragon Quest is such that the userbase will come to it, and while home consoles are weaker in Japan now (and the Wii has lost relevance there), the existing base will indeed expand in Japan even in 2012 based on that game alone, and it'll put up decent enough results in the West, again due to Nintendo's commitment



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Mr Khan said:
mrstickball said:
 

Oh, I don't disagree. The only thing right that Square has done recently is buy Edios which seems to be having a string of good games (Batman: Arkham Asylum being one of them with Deus Ex: Human Revolution coming as another).

They've kind of crapped out when it comes to internal priorities: Their focus seems to be on anything and everything but their significant IPs that could help their bottom line. You have many Final Fantasies coming out (but none are major sans vsXIII and that comes out God-knows-when), no mention of KH3 which is likely to sell 5 million copies plus, Dragon Quest for Wii which is likely going to be a historically poor seller given the install bases out there (why they didn't go with another DS/3ds iteration is beyond me, although I guess one can understand it if they greenlit it ~3 years ago).

All the while, Square has so many unbelievable IPs ripe for Virtual Console and HD remakes. Instead, we get Crystal Defenders.

  • Why not release the Terranigma series on VC/iOS?
  • Why not release the classic Dragon Quest games on VC/iOS?
  • Can't they revisit some of their old Squaresoft/Enix IPs to port like Live-a-Live, Bahaumut Lagoon, or the many other games that never came to NA?
  • Where is Square's Android presence? ROMs have grossed millions of dollars likely due to Square-Enix IPs, why not cash in on them?
  • What about Yosumin on phones? Or the Final Fantasy IV collection? Final Fantasy III DS is a hit and has sold about 75,000 copies in two months, what about more ports of the other Final Fantasies? 
  • Why not publish a new 2D epic RPG for smartphones? You have ~300 million users dying for a real JRPG. Its ripe for a multi-million seller (Infinity Blade is the 3rd highest-grossing game of all time and it'd pale in comparison to a serious 30hr JRPG effort by Square)
  • More DS/PSP/3DS/NGP games are likely do be big bucks - not console games (as proven by their sheer lack of success late).

And so on. Those are just a few lost-cost high-turnaround ideas. Really, Edios should stick to console while Square works on a lot of handheld/phone efforts, with the occassional massive IP like KH3, DQ10, FFXV and so on.

Here we disagree on a few points. I've heard that Eidos is a money-sink and that SE's acquisition didn't change that. Equally i think Dragon Quest X is going to do well, given Nintendo's commitment to cross-promoting overseas. Dragon Quest is such that the userbase will come to it, and while home consoles are weaker in Japan now (and the Wii has lost relevance there), the existing base will indeed expand in Japan even in 2012 based on that game alone, and it'll put up decent enough results in the West, again due to Nintendo's commitment

I'm sure the upfront costs of the merger were costly, but I think its a longer-term benefit for SE, as they can now make games that appeal to a western audience outside of their major tentpole IPs like Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts.

I am sure DQX will do well - but I don't see it doing DQIX well. Your putting the largest JRPG on a console that has (not trying to be a fanboy here) been a rather weak console for JRPG successes, and had many failures. I just don't see it hitting 5m and may struggle to 4.5m on the Wii, whilst a 3DS/DS release may have likely earned more copies sold an more revenue due to a lower production budget. Furthermore, Dragon Quest is generally shunned in the west (much to my dismay, I love the series since Dragon Warrior on NES), so even if Nintendo promotes it here, it will have little effect as DQVIII has been the largest American success of the series with a paltry 630,000 units sold, with IX selling under 500,000. I don't see how the Wii version can sell over 500,000 units here given the user base.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Square dropped the ball right after final fantasy 1.

 

The whole fun was getting to pick your own party, why they switched to forced static characters I'll never know.



SE is not doomed.  Dragon Quest, Batman: Arkham and Dues EX alone will ensure healthy profit growth.  The only way SE would 'die' is if Wada keeps focusing the vast majority of their profits on over-budget games with all their marketing (aka, Final Fantasy and Kingdom hearts).  And as he has recently said, they are going to move away fro mthat making new IPs and focusing on other series more.  It just took him over 10 years to admit it.

Also, SE has never said they're going to stop making the games they already make just to make Cell Phone games.  And why shouldn't they make cell phone games?  Something like 85% of people in Japan own, and use, Cell Phones.  And the app/android market has exploded overr the last 5 years.  It would almost be dumb for any company NOT to make at least one low budget cell phone game to 'test the waters'.  Unless you're a company like Nintendo who has a powerful and popular handheld already.

Also, can be STOP with the damn '[Insert Name] is doomed' threads already.  Geez.



Six upcoming games you should look into:

 

  

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Massive Multiplayer Online games can actually be self sufficient with as few as ten thousand users. They can enter into a state of developmental dormancy. All that is required is to consolidate the hardware, decrease the bandwidth, whittle the staff down to a team of three, and bank some content patches. You can basically run the whole affair out of a small room. Sony Online Entertainment has been doing this for years. They run a number of games that are abysmal failures, and are able to do so year after year. Not only that, but according to them they are making a healthy profit.

They probably spend less then a hundred thousand a month maintaining the system. So the rest is just straight up profit. Granted if your looking to make back a fifty million dollar up front investment. You will probably never make that back, but if you can make back a million dollars a year. Why wouldn't you just continue to drag the corpse. Honestly I cannot say just what motivates some people to hang onto a obviously dead game, but there seem to be enough such types out there to keep such games going for years.

 



Dodece said:

Massive Multiplayer Online games can actually be self sufficient with as few as ten thousand users. They can enter into a state of developmental dormancy. All that is required is to consolidate the hardware, decrease the bandwidth, whittle the staff down to a team of three, and bank some content patches. You can basically run the whole affair out of a small room. Sony Online Entertainment has been doing this for years. They run a number of games that are abysmal failures, and are able to do so year after year. Not only that, but according to them they are making a healthy profit.

They probably spend less then a hundred thousand a month maintaining the system. So the rest is just straight up profit. Granted if your looking to make back a fifty million dollar up front investment. You will probably never make that back, but if you can make back a million dollars a year. Why wouldn't you just continue to drag the corpse. Honestly I cannot say just what motivates some people to hang onto a obviously dead game, but there seem to be enough such types out there to keep such games going for years.

 

I can attest to this.  I worked as a game tester for Sony for a few years and this literally was the case.  In the same building where they did all the game testing for SOE, SCE and 2KGames, they had a seperate room that was basically handling the servers and all SOE services.  It was pretty sad.  And explains a lot of why the service for Everquest and SWG is so bad.



Six upcoming games you should look into:

 

  

It is time Square-Enix starts to live up to it's name and put out some new or remakes of Enix games for the PS3/360/Wii. Act Raiser, Soul Blazer, and Ogre Battle are all worthy series of a reboot.  Likewise, they own Eidos who has the intellectual copyrights to Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Thief, and Legacy of Kain.

Square-Enix is not short on avenues for a hit or two to put them back into relevance.

What Square-Enix is short on is leadership who has the balls to dip his/her hand into the barrel full of apples to pluck out a diamond in the rough blindly. Instead, Wada and this so-called "leadership" got their dicks too hard on Final Fantasy, rode it too long, and are defiantly in full on denial mode trying to stay on.

Final Fantasy 14 utterly failing was not enough just like Final Fantasy 11 taking years to get the amount of subscribers Blizzard got with the World of Warcraft in a year was not enough...to sober them up.

My prediction for the next Square-Enix game? Final Fantasy coming to your cell phone.

Hell, who wants to bet that Square-Enix will rename itself Final Fantasy Productions, Inc.?

 



Killiana1a said:

It is time Square-Enix starts to live up to it's name and put out some new or remakes of Enix games for the PS3/360/Wii. Act Raiser, Soul Blazer, and Ogre Battle are all worthy series of a reboot.  Likewise, they own Eidos who has the intellectual copyrights to Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Thief, and Legacy of Kain.

Square-Enix is not short on avenues for a hit or two to put them back into relevance.

What Square-Enix is short on is leadership who has the balls to dip his/her hand into the barrel full of apples to pluck out a diamond in the rough blindly. Instead, Wada and this so-called "leadership" got their dicks too hard on Final Fantasy, rode it too long, and are defiantly in full on denial mode trying to stay on.

Final Fantasy 14 utterly failing was not enough just like Final Fantasy 11 taking years to get the amount of subscribers Blizzard got with the World of Warcraft in a year was not enough...to sober them up.

My prediction for the next Square-Enix game? Final Fantasy coming to your cell phone.

Hell, who wants to bet that Square-Enix will rename itself Final Fantasy Productions, Inc.?

 

Frankly, like the square Side which only focuses on Final Fantasy or Kingdom Hearts, the Enix side has basically been stripped down to two things.  Dragon Quest and 'TriAce' based games (Star Ocean, Valkarie Profile, Star Ocean).  But I don't blame the people who make those games, rather Wada who thinks a game will sell on name recognition alone.

Dragon Quest is arguably doing better than it ever has been.  And a lot of that is because Wada hasn't been sticking his thumb in that pie and Yuji Horii has full say on how the series is handled.  Along with (thankfully) an outside group from SE is making the games (ArtePiazza/Level-5).  Sadly, we can't say the same for the TriAce games, which keep looking more 'western' and 'grimdark' each incarnation.

I still contend Level-5 and Armor Project (the Dragon Quest team) should team up with MonolithSoft and make a third Chrono game.  Its the head staff of SE that iskeeping a new Chrono game from being made, not the developers.  because they find any game that sells under a million to be non-profitable.



Six upcoming games you should look into:

 

  

Honestly, I'm still saying that SE is simply going to turn into Atari sometime soon.  They'll become a big publisher and eventually just kill themselves out.  They'll eventually exhaust Final Fantasy VII and realize the FFXIII universe isn't going to make them the money they want and they're just going to run out of money.  They're just die out eventually.

It's sad because so many people have such fond memory of Square and Enix games.  They totally forgot what made their games so memorable and their games just lost any kind of soul they once had.  It's all about the 15 minutes of boring cut scenes, non-sensical story, and boring gameplay.

I think three things very well point to my theory-- FFXIII, FFXIV, and Deus Ex: Human Revolution.

For FFXIII, it's obvious they don't know how to make a current game.  Pretty cut scenes are cool but when you have a boring game with a stupid story it doesn't matter much.  We have fond memories of past SE games because of their strong gameplay, engaging stories, and/or fantastic characters, not the overly produced cut scenes.  FFXIII is just the product of a company that is highly resistant to change in a world that is forcing them to change.

For FFXIV, it's obvious that SE is going to do what they want to do and fuck everyone else.  There's something to be proud of there but you should only take that theme so far.  With FFXIV they rightly decided to seperate themselves from WoW but they went a little far.  It's like they saw everything WoW did and tried to go as far away from that as possible.  The problem though is WoW is successful because it does a lot of things right.  FFXIV tried to do the opposite of what WoW did and it was awful, which brings us to the next point.  The fans told them constantly during the alpha and beta that the game didn't work in any way at all and SE trudged on.  This shows that SE doesn't give a crap what their fans have to say, it's Final Fantasy and people will buy it.

Finally, there's Deus Ex.  That game looks incredible.  I don't have much bad to say about it.  The problem is that SE is the publisher there, they didn't really make the game.  Being the publisher they definitely have input but they aren't the ones making the game.  The game will more than likely be successful and more than likely be good which makes me think they will continue to move closer to the publishing side because that makes them money.

To me, it's as clear as day.  Games like FFXIII aren't providing the franchise that they can continue to exploit.  MMO's are a hard market to get into and FFXIV isn't going to do anything at all.  What's going to work are things like Deus Ex, the things that other really good developers are doing.  SE is going to eventually realize they're going to make more money being a publisher.  Final Fantasy will story be around but it isn't going to be SE that makes it, they'll simply be publishing it.