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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Square-Enix is doomed. Here's why.

twesterm said:
Teo said:
Albion said:
Teo said:

FF13-2 will be an instant success on release.

FF11 is their most profitable game up to date.

FF14 will eventually pay off its huge loses within 3 years and turn profit.

Dragon Quests and Final Fantasy ports/remakes on DS/3DS and PSP/NGP will sell better than most games on their respective market.

Even if FFv13 sells 5mil copies it might still be a loss for SE but I'm sure a game like that will get a sequel.

There is still a tiny chance we will see FF15 this generation, that will be an instant hit.

SE would be crazy to not join the social network and the smart phone game market, future gamers are lurking there by the millions, if they want to bring the next generation into the home console and handeld market then this is key for their survivability.

Yawn. SE doom thread #7632542

Not if FF14 flops after one year of patching.

I'v looked at the game, and it's not gowing anywhere.

They are not doomed but as long as they have FF14 the will lose money.

FF14 has 18 servers right now with 2,500 to 3000 people playing on each server.

When they start charging:

$12 monthly fee x 2,500 players (at least) = $30,000 in revenue for one month on 1 server.

$30,000 x 18 servers = (at least) $540,000 in revenue per month in total.

$540,000 x 12 months = (at least) 6,480,000 in revenue for the first year of payment.

 

It's just good business.


No, not really.  18 servers for 45k players is really bad.

You're assuming that the 6 million number is profit when it probably costs around $20,000 a month just to run a single server.  Then you have to pay people to actually maintain the game so it costs more than $540,000 a month to maintain the game. 

SE is losing an insane amount of money each month on this game and have been since last September.  FFXIV is a massive money pit and I'm surprised on many different levels they actually released it.

Now, on to the next part -- 2,500-3,000 players per server.

If FFXIV were some free indie MMO that 45k people playing would be an impressive number but that is not what FFXIV is.  It's supposed to be a major top tier MMO and that 45k people is embarrassing.  The fact it's a Final Fantasy game adds onto the embarrassment.  The fact that it's still free makes it an even bigger embarrassment.

And how many of those 45,000 people do you think will actually play the game once it's pay-to-play?  Even if the problems were fixed it's still a bad game and not worth the monthly fee.

So, no, FFXIV is not good business at all.  I honestly don't know why they still have the servers up but I would be willing to bet they'll be down by the end of the year and we'll never see a PS3 version.

100% agreed.

No matter how you look. The fact is that FFXIV is a disastre.



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twesterm said:


Just for grins and giggles I decided to look up some stats on FFXIV.  First off, I don't believe for a second there are 2,500-3,000 people at any given time on every server.  It's possible it might get that high during peak hours on heavily populated servers, but that probably isn't the norm.

The game was destroyed by pretty much every reviewer out there (and with good reason) and it only shipped about 600,000 copies.    Two days after release the game only had 50,000 characters.  By the end of October there were only about 350,000 active characters.  With the state that game released in I really doubt it went up by a lot and stayed up.  That number probably has been decreasing significantly month after month.

And then there's your ending statement-- The fact is, each server will charge about 3k players on each server after all is said and done.

You're saying that like it's going to be good business.  Read my previous post why that isn't good business.  54,000 players totaly would be a very bad thing.

You are trying to compare the success of FFXIV with other MMOs, the fact is that FF14 is not the success SE was hoping for. That does not mean it will not be profitable, becasue it will be. Its so easy for you to say "oh what a disaster! Can this game before we lose any more money!" Well, thank god you are not a BD at SE. This game will geneare revenue and it will have a life of 10 years or more. I don't care if you don't believe me, I have played enough MMOs to know what will happen. FF14 will have about 7x or more total revenue than FF13 has under its belt when FF14 is shut down.



Steps to make SE ultra-successful:

  • Put Final Fantasy XV on smartphones
  • Charge $19.99 Per Copy
  • Profit!!!!

Nothing like selling a game to an install base greater than every generation of consoles combined



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Teo said:
twesterm said:


Just for grins and giggles I decided to look up some stats on FFXIV.  First off, I don't believe for a second there are 2,500-3,000 people at any given time on every server.  It's possible it might get that high during peak hours on heavily populated servers, but that probably isn't the norm.

The game was destroyed by pretty much every reviewer out there (and with good reason) and it only shipped about 600,000 copies.    Two days after release the game only had 50,000 characters.  By the end of October there were only about 350,000 active characters.  With the state that game released in I really doubt it went up by a lot and stayed up.  That number probably has been decreasing significantly month after month.

And then there's your ending statement-- The fact is, each server will charge about 3k players on each server after all is said and done.

You're saying that like it's going to be good business.  Read my previous post why that isn't good business.  54,000 players totaly would be a very bad thing.

You are trying to compare the success of FFXIV with other MMOs, the fact is that FF14 is not the success SE was hoping for. That does not mean it will not be profitable, becasue it will be. Its so easy for you to say "oh what a disaster! Can this game before we lose any more money!" Well, thank god you are not a BD at SE. This game will geneare revenue and it will have a life of 10 years or more. I don't care if you don't believe me, I have played enough MMOs to know what will happen. FF14 will have about 7x or more total revenue than FF13 has under its belt when FF14 is shut down.

And it's so easy for you to say oh, FFXIV will be profitable because it's powered by sunshine and puppy farts!,  good thing you're not in charge either.

 

FFXIV needs one major thing in order to survive-- players.  It doesn't have that.  As I pointed out earlier, it only had 350k active players in October and it probably has never gone over that number.  You're right that FFXIV dos not need to like other MMO's but it does need players.  It doesn't have many players at all and what little players it does have will start leaving in mass when they actually start charging for it.

You keep saying FFXIV will make money but I'm still not sure if you realize it's losing an insane amount of money every day it's operational and bringing in no money.  Remember, this game was supposed to be making money since last September.

Not only have they not been making monthly fees but they're basically remaking the game.  In order for that game to make money it will need near WoW-like numbers and stay around for a long time.  The game is a massive money pit.

It's funny how you can sit there and tell me it's so easy to say it will fail but I'm the person that has all the facts and not just hopes on their side.  I know FFXIV cost a lot of money to produce, I know FFXIV cost a lot of money to fix in its current state, I know FFXIV cost a lot to maintain, I know FFXIV has brought in no subscription fees, I know it has a horrible reputation, I know there are 600k copies out there and there aren't even half of that playing it, and I know it's an awful game.

What do you know?



twesterm said:
Teo said:
twesterm said:


Just for grins and giggles I decided to look up some stats on FFXIV.  First off, I don't believe for a second there are 2,500-3,000 people at any given time on every server.  It's possible it might get that high during peak hours on heavily populated servers, but that probably isn't the norm.

The game was destroyed by pretty much every reviewer out there (and with good reason) and it only shipped about 600,000 copies.    Two days after release the game only had 50,000 characters.  By the end of October there were only about 350,000 active characters.  With the state that game released in I really doubt it went up by a lot and stayed up.  That number probably has been decreasing significantly month after month.

And then there's your ending statement-- The fact is, each server will charge about 3k players on each server after all is said and done.

You're saying that like it's going to be good business.  Read my previous post why that isn't good business.  54,000 players totaly would be a very bad thing.

You are trying to compare the success of FFXIV with other MMOs, the fact is that FF14 is not the success SE was hoping for. That does not mean it will not be profitable, becasue it will be. Its so easy for you to say "oh what a disaster! Can this game before we lose any more money!" Well, thank god you are not a BD at SE. This game will geneare revenue and it will have a life of 10 years or more. I don't care if you don't believe me, I have played enough MMOs to know what will happen. FF14 will have about 7x or more total revenue than FF13 has under its belt when FF14 is shut down.

And it's so easy for you to say oh, FFXIV will be profitable because it's powered by sunshine and puppy farts!,  good thing you're not in charge either.

 

FFXIV needs one major thing in order to survive-- players.  It doesn't have that.  As I pointed out earlier, it only had 350k active players in October and it probably has never gone over that number.  You're right that FFXIV dos not need to like other MMO's but it does need players.  It doesn't have many players at all and what little players it does have will start leaving in mass when they actually start charging for it.

 

You keep saying FFXIV will make money but I'm still not sure if you realize it's losing an insane amount of money every day it's operational and bringing in no money.  Remember, this game was supposed to be making money since last September.

Not only have they not been making monthly fees but they're basically remaking the game.  In order for that game to make money it will need near WoW-like numbers and stay around for a long time.  The game is a massive money pit.

It's funny how you can sit there and tell me it's so easy to say it will fail but I'm the person that has all the facts and not just hopes on their side.  I know FFXIV cost a lot of money to produce, I know FFXIV cost a lot of money to fix in its current state, I know FFXIV cost a lot to maintain, I know FFXIV has brought in no subscription fees, I know it has a horrible reputation, I know there are 600k copies out there and there aren't even half of that playing it, and I know it's an awful game.

What do you know?

 

LMAO, well said!



Rockstar: Announce Bully 2 already and make gamers proud!

Kojima: Come out with Project S already!

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twesterm said:

And it's so easy for you to say oh, FFXIV will be profitable because it's powered by sunshine and puppy farts!,  good thing you're not in charge either.

 

FFXIV needs one major thing in order to survive-- players.  It doesn't have that.  As I pointed out earlier, it only had 350k active players in October and it probably has never gone over that number.  You're right that FFXIV dos not need to like other MMO's but it does need players.  It doesn't have many players at all and what little players it does have will start leaving in mass when they actually start charging for it.

 

You keep saying FFXIV will make money but I'm still not sure if you realize it's losing an insane amount of money every day it's operational and bringing in no money.  Remember, this game was supposed to be making money since last September.

Not only have they not been making monthly fees but they're basically remaking the game.  In order for that game to make money it will need near WoW-like numbers and stay around for a long time.  The game is a massive money pit.

It's funny how you can sit there and tell me it's so easy to say it will fail but I'm the person that has all the facts and not just hopes on their side.  I know FFXIV cost a lot of money to produce, I know FFXIV cost a lot of money to fix in its current state, I know FFXIV cost a lot to maintain, I know FFXIV has brought in no subscription fees, I know it has a horrible reputation, I know there are 600k copies out there and there aren't even half of that playing it, and I know it's an awful game.

What do you know?

 


Think you could talk a little bit more about Square's costs and losses involved with FFXIV? I know you work in the industry, and would like to hear about how much Square is hemorraging from XIV. I'd imagine that development costs on the game were likely between $70-$100m USD and with current sales, are nowhere near that kind of revenue (much less the monthly fees of upkeep - and thats what Im interested in learning about).



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Galaki said:

source

To reverse Square Enix's fiscal fortunes, Wada hopes to give a major push to social networking games and apps for high powered cell phones. However, he is unsure if developers who've worked on package games can work in these areas, so he's hoping to make use of external developers. However, he's not considering an acquisition.



Ugh that sucks. I hope every phone game they make bombs in sales.



twesterm said:

What do you know?


Apparently, more than you.



Teo said:
twesterm said:

What do you know?


Apparently, more than you.

So what developer do you work for, again?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Teo said:
twesterm said:

What do you know?


Apparently, more than you.

Is that your best argument?



Rockstar: Announce Bully 2 already and make gamers proud!

Kojima: Come out with Project S already!